Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Etna, CA

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 23, 2018 12:49 PM PDT (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 5:54PMMoonset 4:25AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 901 Am Pdt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Today..N winds 15 to 25 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt near point saint george. Waves nw 8 ft at 7 seconds.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 25 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt near point saint george in the evening. Waves nw 8 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 8 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 8 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 9 seconds...and nw 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 9 seconds.
PZZ400 901 Am Pdt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for northern california waters..Northerly winds will continue to increase over the area through Monday and steep seas will build in response. Winds will decrease late Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Etna, CA
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location: 41.34, -123.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 231816
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1116 am pdt Sun sep 23 2018
updated aviation section

Discussion Current observations are in line with the front that
has passed through southern oregon and northern california
overnight. Todays highs will be a little warmer than they were
yesterday as a high pressure system builds in with the thermal
trough pattern. Overall, the forecast looks relatively on track,
and am not making any changes. -schaaf

Aviation For the 23 18z tafs...VFR will prevail across the area
through Monday morning. Gusty north winds (25-30 kt) are expected
over the coastal waters during this time frame and also along the
coast this afternoon evening. Similar wind gusts are expected over
the coastal mountains, peaking tonight and into Monday morning.

Local northerly breezes (gusts 15-20 kt) will surface in the umpqua
basin this afternoon evening. Patchy fog could form in the coastal
river valleys late tonight into Monday morning, and also near north
bend, but shouldn't last long. -spilde

Prev discussion issued 702 am pdt Sun sep 23 2018
update... Updated the aviation and marine sections.

Aviation... For the 23 12z tafs... A cold front has pushed east of the
area. But, widespread mid and upper level clouds, with areas of
terrain obscuration, will persist over the region through around 15z
this morning, then diminish during the remainder of the morning.

There are also lingering ifr low clouds with patchy drizzle at the
coast north of CAPE blanco, which will also diminish after 15z.

Vfr conditions with mostly clear skies will develop by afternoon and
continue tonight into Monday morning. A thermal trough will develop
near the coast this afternoon, bringing gusty winds to the coast and
coastal mountains, and breezy winds in the umpqua basin. Over the
marine waters, expect winds gusting up to around 30 kt south of cape
blanco. -mm dw
marine... Updated 500 am pdt Sunday 23 september 2018... A deep
thermal trough will remain in place along the coast and produce
gusty northerly winds and steep to very steep seas into Wednesday.

Winds will increase today then reach a peak Monday and Tuesday
during the afternoon and evening hours. Gales will develop south of
cape blanco. Conditions will improve gradually Wednesday into Friday
with seas becoming dominated by a short period northwest swell as
winds diminish. Forecast confidence diminishes late in the week, but
a shift to southerly winds is possible. -dw
prev discussion... Issued 516 am pdt Sun sep 23 2018
discussion...

high temperatures yesterday ended up being 5 to as much as 17
degrees cooler than they were Friday afternoon due to a cold front
moving through the forecast area. Temperature changes were least
along the coast and east side (0 to 5 degrees) and most across the
interior west side (6-17 degrees). While most areas remained dry,
there was measurable rainfall across much of coos and douglas
counties, with some locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch. A trace to a few hundredths fell in portions of curry and
josephine counties.

This morning a deep marine layer extends to the cascades and
siskiyous, but drying northeast winds have already begun to erode
the cloudiness south of the umpqua divide. While temperatures
will remain cool today through Monday morning, the air mass will
dry out substantially. This will set us up for a rapid warm-up
Monday afternoon, and then, moreso, Tuesday through Thursday,
lingering into Friday. With the very dry air mass in place, we'll
see a large difference between highs and lows- around 40 degrees
for the interior west side, and around 50 degrees on the east
side.

There is a possibility of frost in the applegate and illinois
valleys Monday morning.

Both the deterministic ECMWF and gfs, as well as the GEFS suggest
that the pattern will break down late this next week into next
weekend. A trough of low pressure digging southward along the
canadian coast and low pressure west of california are expected to
bumped the high eastward. This would set us up for some
precipitation potential for next week. -lutz
fire weather... Updated 430 am pdt Sunday, 23 september 2018...

temperatures are cool this morning and rh recoveries are good,
but easterly winds are already beginning to pick up at the
windier places in the coastal mountains. Over the next two nights
we're expecting easterly winds to increase as the atmosphere dries
out tremendously. While 925mb-850mb level winds in the models
peak Monday morning, the pressure gradients between the cascades
and coast, per the nam12, peak Tuesday morning. History has shown
that easterly wind events such as this one usually become drier
with time, and that wind speed changes at the key raws correlate
better with pressure gradient than to the model 850-925mb wind
speeds. Based on these reasons, we have expanded the fire weather
watch area for the combination of wind and rh to include portions
of fwzs 618 and 280 from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

These watches, as well as those that begin earlier in fwzs 619
and 620, are now in effect through 18z Tuesday.

Watches were also considered for the oregon cascades and
siskiyous. However, guidance currently suggests that winds will
come down before rhs reach critical levels Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday afternoon. For these areas, as well as much of
the rest of the forecast area, we expect minimum rhs on those
afternoons to be in the 5 to 15% range, lowest on Wednesday. With
rhs that low, it will not take much wind to push west side and
mountain locations to rfw levels. Thus, we'll need to keep an eye
on this as time moves on.

It does appear that southerly flow and the marine layer will
return to the coast as early as Thursday night as the thermal
trough gets bumped inland by troughing pushing toward us from both
the north and west. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding
how the pattern will break down and related precipitation
opportunities.

-lutz

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Fire weather watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
orz619-620.

Fire weather watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for orz618.

Ca... Fire weather watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning
for caz280.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt
Wednesday for pzz356-376.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 5 am pdt Wednesday for
pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 5 am pdt
Wednesday for pzz350-370.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 68 mi37 min N 11 G 16 63°F 55°F1016.4 hPa
HBYC1 - 9418767 - North Spit, CA 75 mi73 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 53°F1018.1 hPa
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 77 mi49 min 55°F7 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Shasta, CA37 mi53 minVar 510.00 miFair62°F41°F46%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from MHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3--Calm3CalmCalmCalm33434--4533Calm445465
1 day ago3Calm333--E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago6W75N433CalmNE3CalmNE3CalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Trinidad Harbor, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Arcata Wharf, Humboldt Bay, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.