Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 6:51PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 4:35 PM EDT (20:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:09PMMoonset 1:07AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 425 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 425 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over the canadian maritimes will bring persistent ne winds tonight and Thu. The high will shift east Thu night while a cold front approaches the waters from west on Fri. S-sw winds may approach gale force Fri and Fri night. The cold front will sweep across the waters Sat morning. High pres will build east from the great lakes this weekend and be followed by a reinforcing high pres area from ontario on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191942
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
342 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces
through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday
night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late Friday
night into Saturday morning. The front settles just to the south
into early next week as strong high pressure builds to the north. A
slow moving frontal system will move towards the region the middle
of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
High pressure builds southward into the region tonight. A
northeast to east flow and subsidence inversion should allow low
stratus to move back into the region tonight, possibly
remaining into Thursday morning. The main question will be how
far west the stratus reaches.

Lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s. A mav met ecs
blend was used for overnight lows.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current formation at atlantic ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday morning will start off with cloudy or mostly cloudy
skies as stratus remains over the region. The cloud should start
to dissipate by mid morning as drier air moves into the region,
however we could still be looking at a partly cloudy day,
especially across the western half of the region as high clouds
start moving into the region as a cold front approaches from the
west.

As a cold front approaches Thursday night, clouds will once a
again increase. Despite the cloud cover will go with a dry
forecast through the short term, thinking that any precipitation
will hold off til Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the lower and middle
70s, while lows Thursday night fall into the 50s and 60s.

Forecast guidance was in good agreement with temperatures and
used a blend of the mav met and ecs.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current formation at atlantic ocean beaches through
Thursday.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Generally a zonal upper flow expected through early next week
between southeastern us ridging transitioning to bermuda ridging,
and a hudson bay upper low sliding into eastern canada. Good
agreement between models in a pac shortwave rotating through this
flow through the great lakes on Friday and then the northeast
us Friday night.

At the surface, decent agreement with a frontal system approaching
the region on Friday in response to this shortwave. Instability and
winds fields suggest an organized line of convection developing
across western ny pa and tracking eastward in the afternoon. Timing
of lagging shortwave forcing front indicate that this line would not
make it into the region till the overnight hours. With waning
instability and lagging forcing, it is questionable how far eastward
into the region any strong to damaging wind threat would maintain as
strong shear wind could lead to an outflow dominant transition. At
this point, areas n&w of nyc would have a marginal risk for some
strong to damaging winds gusts if this line arrives in the evening,
with a diminishing threat as it approaches the deepening stable
layer near the coast.

Thereafter, a fall type airmass likely for the weekend into early
next week as the cold front settles just to the south and canadian
high pressure builds into new england. With close proximity to
stalled boundary and under periphery of the ridge upper jet, could
be looking at mid and high clouds streaming across the region
through the weekend. Perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers
possible across southern portions of the tri-state if the boundary
stalls close enough, but otherwise dry. Then a gradually
increasing chance for stratus and shower development Monday or
Monday night with approach of the next frontal system.

Then a good signal for a return to a moist tropical environment for
mid to late week as troughing begins to amplify into the central us,
and bermuda ridging remains stubborn. A slow approaching frontal
system will bring potential for rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
particularly across the interior, during this time along with a warm
and unseasonably humid airmass.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
High pressure over new england through Thursday.

Mainly aVFR forecast through the TAF period with exception of
eastern terminals where MVFR is expected. Any ceiling heights will
generally be in the 2-4k ft range, with the lowest CIGS NE of nyc.

Isolated ceilings to 1k are possible kgon and kisp especially late
tonight or early Thursday morning. Any broken ceilings overnight may
see a brief improvement to sct at times.

Winds generally n-ne tonight 10 kt or less especially
overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 6 mi41 min NNE 13 G 15 70°F 1014.4 hPa62°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi36 min NE 5.1 G 7 70°F 71°F1013.5 hPa (-0.0)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi36 min 69°F 72°F1013.6 hPa (-0.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi42 min NNE 15 G 19 66°F 72°F1014.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi42 min N 8.9 G 15 66°F 68°F1014.1 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi42 min NE 8.9 G 14 66°F 1014.3 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 39 mi51 min E 14 G 16 71°F 74°F2 ft
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi51 min NE 14 67°F 1014 hPa63°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi36 min NNE 12 G 16 65°F 73°F1014.5 hPa (+0.6)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi42 min NE 9.9 G 15 66°F 70°F1014 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi36 min NE 9.9 G 16 66°F 1014.8 hPa (+0.5)61°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi46 min NE 14 G 16 68°F 69°F4 ft1013.3 hPa (+0.5)64°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi36 min NE 16 G 19 66°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.4)
FRXM3 49 mi36 min 65°F 61°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi1.7 hrsNE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F64°F76%1013.1 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi43 minN 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1013.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi42 minNE 6 mi71°F64°F79%1014 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi40 minNNE 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast68°F63°F84%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N6N3N4CalmN3CalmN4N3N4NE5CalmCalmN6N11NE6N7NE10NE8N10N11NE13NE11N11
1 day agoS9S8S6S6S5SW4S3CalmS5S7S8S10S8S12S15S15SW18
G23
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G19
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G21
NW6N4
2 days agoS6S6SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S6S5SW6SW6CalmCalmS5S6S6S6S6S7S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.