Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 12:59 AM   Moonset 9:35 AM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 404 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 12 seconds. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers. Wed night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Thu through Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A cold front will move into the waters today, then stall to the west tonight and Tue. Low pres tracks south of new eng Tue night into Wed, then high pres will follow for Thu and Fri.

FXUS61 KOKX 290831 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 431 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front/surface trough moves through the area this morning, with a back door cold front moving through this evening. A frontal wave then moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high pressure returning thereafter for the end of the week. Another frontal system is expected for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak cold front/surface trough is currently moving through the area, with any showers now south of us. Ridging continues to build in aloft over the eastern CONUS, with the axis expected to be overhead sometime early Tuesday. A back door cold front approaches this afternoon and moves through this evening.

Today will be one of the warmest days of the year so far, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most. Bit of a tricky temperature forecast with the timing of the front, sea breezes and any clouds this morning being huge factors. The thinking is that skies will be mostly sunny this morning and temps will rise quickly with decent mixing in a northwest flow. Once the sea breezes kick in, temperatures will drop as always this time of the year. Long Island, coastal CT and portions of NYC and northeast NJ will likely see their highs in the early afternoon.

With sea breeze boundaries and some energy rounding the base of the ridge aloft, some afternoon convection is possible as SBCAPE values will be around 500-1000 J/kg for NYC north and west. Have added a slight chance of thunder to the forecast. The CAMs are in pretty good agreement with the location of any convection being NYC north and west.

Thicker cloud cover returns tonight with a moist onshore flow. lows will be in the upper 40s in the eastern half of the area and mid 50s in the western half.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A frontal boundary likely remains just south of the area through Tuesday night. As previously mentioned, the upper ridge axis will pass overhead early Tuesday. A shortwave then approaches with associated surface frontal wave Tuesday night. This will bring the next shot of rain to the area with chances Tuesday evening through the first half of Wednesday. Capped at 50% PoP for now, with the most likely period being Tuesday night. There is also a slight chance of thunder. High pressure starts building in from the north and east Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday than they will be today, but still at or above normal for late April/early May.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No major changes were made to the forecast Thursday through the upcoming weekend

*Key Points*

*Dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday.

*The next frontal system may impact the area for the upcoming weekend, bringing the next chance of showers.

*Temperatures will continue running slightly above normal.

Shortwave troughing that will be moving across the region Wednesday pushes offshore on Thursday. Upper ridging will reestablish itself over the eastern states to end the week. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the area Saturday into Sunday. The modeling has been slowing down the timing for the ridge axis to weaken or shift east. This has also slowed down when higher probabilities for showers exist across the region. It may take until late Saturday or Saturday night for the ridge to weaken enough to allow the front to enter the area. Showers are possible late Saturday into Saturday night. Model spread increases further for Sunday with several solutions showing ridging trying to return and the front dissipating. There are also solutions showing the ridge moving to the western Atlantic on Sunday with a larger upper trough trying to edge closer to the east coast, which would act on the front to bring higher chances of showers. Maintained the chance of showers on Sunday based on the latest NBM. Did not include thunder as there is too much uncertainty with the mesoscale environment at this time range.

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach the lower to middle 60s near the coast with onshore component to the wind. Further inland, highs should reach the lower to potentially middle 70s.
Highs are much more uncertain this weekend with NBM box and whisker plots showing ranges of highs from the lower 60s to the upper 70s, especially away from the immediate coast. This is likely due to the aforementioned uncertainties with cloud cover, potential showers, and proximity of the front.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weak trough continues to push east of the terminals early this morning. A back door cold front approaches in the afternoon and moves through in the evening.

Mainly VFR through 00z Tuesday. A few showers are possible late this afternoon and early this evening and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. For now will include a PROB30 for SHRA.

Ceilings should then begin lowering thereafter as the back door cold front pushes east with MVFR to IFR development occurring 03-05z. IFR conditions are likely early Tuesday morning.

Light winds to start will become NW-NNW. Winds will begin to shift to the S-SE with sea breeze development in the afternoon. Winds begin to back to the ESE-E this evening and then E overnight. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less through the TAF period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief MVFR visibility at EWR and TEB through 11z.

Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-3 hours.

Winds at KLGA may become NNE-NE this morning/early afternoon before shifting to the SE.

A shower, possibly a thunderstorm, could occur 21-00z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: MVFR to IFR likely mainly in ceilings. Slight chance of a shower.

Tuesday: MVFR to IFR in the morning, some VFR possible in the afternoon. Shower possible late afternoon, more probable Tuesday night with potential thunder.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Given a weak pressure gradient over the area for several days, winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the first half of the weekend.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

CLIMATE
Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29:

EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017

*Also occurred in previous years

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Noank
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Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:53 PM EDT     1.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Mon -- 12:28 AM EDT     2.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:07 PM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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