Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex Village, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:50 AM EST (14:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 9:47PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 929 Am Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 929 Am Est Thu Nov 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds to the south through Friday, then pushes east of the atlantic coast into Saturday. A cold front approaches from the west Saturday, then crosses the area Saturday night. High pressure then builds in from the southwest through Monday night, then slides off the mid-atlantic coast Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex Village, CT
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location: 41.35, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231148
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
648 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds to the south through Friday, then pushes
well of the atlantic coast into Saturday. A cold front
approaches from the west Saturday, then crosses the area
Saturday night. High pressure then builds in from the southwest
through Monday night, then slides off the mid-atlantic coast
Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday night,
then crosses the area on Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

A 700-500 hpa trough approaches today, but with dry low-mid
levels it should be dry, with just some patchy high clouds out
ahead of it, mainly in the afternoon.

Highs today should be 5-10 degrees below normal, mainly from
around 40 to the lower 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The trough crosses the region in pieces, with the northern
stream portion crossing the area this evening, and the southern
stream portion overnight. Given the unphased nature of the
trough and relatively dry mid-upper levels, have continued with
a dry forecast for tonight. Lows tonight should be around 5
degrees below normal, mainly from the mid 20s to around 30,
except low-mid 30s in the nyc metro.

Southwest flow sets up aloft on Friday, with no notable
shortwave progged to pass over the area in this flow, it should
be dry, with minimal, if any cloud cover. Highs should be near
normal.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Sw flow aloft continues Friday night, and absent any shortwaves
in the flow, it should continue to be dry, with minimal cloud
cover. Lows Friday night should be near to slightly above
normal.

A deep layered trough approaches on Saturday, models do differ
on how well phased it is. The GFS is the most coherent between
the northern and southern streams, while the ECMWF cmc NAM have
the northern stream trough progressing quicker than the
southern stream trough, and shearing out as it lifts ne. The
sref has similar coherence to the gfs, but is slower with the
overall system.

Noting that the northern stream currently is more progressive
than the southern stream, have leaned more towards the
ecmwf cmc NAM Saturday Saturday night. However, do have slight
chance pops mainly Saturday afternoon (and into the evening far
e zones) with the addition of lift just ahead of the surface
cold front.

The region remains at the base of a northern stream trough
Sunday-Sunday night. However, given dry low levels, have
continued with a dry forecast.

Deep layered ridging builds from Monday into Tuesday, then
slides off shore through Tuesday night. Subsidence associated
with the ridge should keep things dry, with minimal cloud cover.

Models then differ on Wednesday. The cmc has a closed low N of
the great lakes with and associated full latitude trough
building into the deep south. The ECMWF has a shearing out
northern stream shortwave race by to the north. The GFS is
fairly similar to the ecmwf, however, not quite as flat with the
shortwave overall pattern over the eastern u.S. Since the cmc
appears to be a clear outlier, went with a gfs ECMWF blend. With
expectation of relatively dry-low to mid levels and limited
dynamics to work with, limited pops on Wednesday to slight
chance, as some isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures Saturday-Wednesday, start out above normal on
Saturday, should be below normal Sunday-Monday, then above
normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds in from the west today into tonight.

Vfr. NW winds around 10 kt (right of 310 magnetic) for the
morning push, likely backing to the west (left of 310 magnetic)
in the afternoon. Winds subsiding to less than 5 kt this
evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi50 min WNW 1.9 G 6 35°F 55°F1018 hPa (+1.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi35 min NW 8 G 9.9 36°F 1017.4 hPa22°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 21 mi185 min NNW 12 G 18 36°F 2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi50 min N 8.9 G 11 34°F 50°F1019.1 hPa (+0.9)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi50 min 36°F 51°F1018.2 hPa (+0.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi50 min NNW 7 G 9.9 34°F 51°F1018.7 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi55 minNNW 710.00 miFair36°F19°F52%1017.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi54 minW 710.00 miFair35°F23°F61%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE44N11N8
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CalmNW5
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1 day agoSW12
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SW83Calm4S4SW6CalmS4--CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW11
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G15

Tide / Current Tables for Essex, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Essex
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 01:58 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:09 PM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:47 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.52.72.52.11.61.20.90.811.52.12.62.93.132.51.91.40.90.50.40.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:11 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:11 AM EST     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:05 AM EST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:46 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:37 PM EST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.10.2-0.9-1.8-2.3-2.1-1.3-0.20.91.82.21.91.20.2-0.8-1.9-2.6-2.6-1.9-0.90.21.32.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.