Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex Village, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 2:25PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1217 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Overnight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Becoming W around 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly after midnight. Patchy fog.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the daytime. Rain likely.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 1217 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build over the great lakes moving more directly over the waters later today. The high will then pass to the east tonight. A warm front will approach on Friday and remains nearby through Saturday. A cold front will move through Saturday night. A series of systems will impact the area starting Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex Village, CT
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location: 41.35, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230413
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1213 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds in tonight from the great lakes, moving
more into the region on Thursday. The high moves offshore
Thursday night. A warm front passes Friday, followed by a cold
front Saturday. The front will wobble across the area on Sunday
before lifting back north on Monday as a warm front. Additional
areas of low pressure may impact the area starting late Monday.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
Just some minor adjustments made based on latest observations,
with temperatures a bit cooler than forecast.

An unseasonably cold airmass across the region will result in
overnight lows some 15 to 20 degrees below normal. This combined
with gusty NW winds will result in wind chills in the single
digits to lower teens.

Surface pressure gradients remain up through most of the night,
however, the general theme is for gradually diminishing winds.

Some record lows may get reached or tied tonight, see the
climate section below.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday/
Surface high pressure will slide southeast from the great lakes
Thursday morning toward the DELMARVA peninsula by Thursday
afternoon. This will result in a clear sky with northwest winds
shutting off by the late morning and winds turning to the west
to southwest by the afternoon which will push readings back to
near 40 in the city with lower 40s in urban sections of
northeastern nj and the 30s elsewhere. Ample sunshine will help
take the edge off the early spring chill.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
The good news is the really cold weather is on the way out,
however, so is seeing the Sun during much of the extended as an
unsettled weather pattern sets up.

A warm front will lift north across the area Thursday night into
Friday morning in advance of an area of low pressure ejecting
out of the southern plains. As the plains low gets closer
an increase in moisture will take place and spread light
precipitation into the area on Friday morning - possibly as
early as 5 to 8 am. Given temps will be near to below freezing
especially inland in the normal klondike spots of orange,
putnam, passaic and ct, there will be the risk for frozen
precipitation before temperatures gradually rise above freezing
with the passage of the warm front. Forecast model soundings all
show a warm nose or warm layer aloft with shallow cold air so
the risk for a variety of frozen precipitation exists. Across
north jersey and the lower hudson valley, frozen precipitation
may start as snow but quickly go to sleet or more likely
freezing rain as the warm layer aloft surges in. Model soundings
look a little better for a bit more in the way of snow across
interior ct, where at danbury snow may last a little longer
before mixing with sleet and/or freezing rain for a bit before
transitioning to all rain. Either way, QPF amounts are mainly a
tenth of an inch or less so this will not be a big event but
perhaps just enough to create some slick spots on roads if it
lasts long enough. If precip is slower to arrive, then p-type
will be more likely just rain as temps will warm up by later in
the morning. However, this short lived cold snap will chill any
road surfaces allowing for even a light amount of precip to get
slick except in spots where a hefty salt still sits on the
roads.

By Friday night, the warm front should push far enough north
that most of area dries out except for inland ct where some
light rain may linger.

The southern plains low advances east on Saturday toward st.

Louis. Our area should be in the warm sector, though still see a
decent amount of clouds. Depending on if we get any sun, temps
may crack 60 especially from the city on west. Southerly flow
off the chilly waters will hold MAX temps down on the island,
ct and southern parts of brooklyn and queens into the 50s.

The warm front to our north will start to get shoved back south
by later in the day in response to a surface high pressure over
eastern canada. Model consensus is there as to a backdoor cold
front moving toward the area Saturday evening and thus we showed
an increase up in pops in that time frame from east to west
across ct and long island. Also given the marine push, I added
in patchy fog as we may end up seeing more drizzle at times than
actual light rain. Temps will slowly fall through the night.

Inland we may see a little frozen precipitation if colder air
seeps in better than expected.

Sunday the main issue is where does the front stall out. The
ecmwf on the 00z operational run was warmer by about 10 degrees
in spots than the 12z operational gfs. For now I played temps
in between but suspect from the city on east the cooler scenario
will win on out but there is certainly some bust potential with
temps. In many spots readings may hold steady or even fall
through the day depending on what the front decides to do. We
kept in a chance of rain through the day as the approaching low
from the west and the front overhead should keep enough lift in
place to keep things wet most of the time.

Beyond Sunday waves of low pressure are expected to impact the
area with a frontal boundary near or north of the area. The
first wave should pull east by Monday morning but model
agreement was poor after this with timing and the track of the
lows. Given the pattern, frozen precipitation may be possible at
times well inland especially at night where any cold air is
trapped. If the frontal boundary hangs up further south then
frozen precipitation is possible further toward the coast. Most
likely though the flow aloft is west to southwest, so I have
favored a warmer forecast. I bumped up temps a bit over the
previous forecast based on a blend of the operational GFS and
ecmwf. There could be some breaks in rain at times, but this far
out exact timing of features is difficult.

Aviation /04z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr through the TAF period with mainly clear sky.

Nw winds 15-20kt with gusts 25kt will slowly diminish overnight.

Winds will pick up again for a few hours late morning and early
afternoon Thursday, then likely drop off late in the afternoon
as high pressure settles across the area.

Outlook for 00z Friday through Monday
Thursday night Vfr with winds becoming light.

Friday MVFR possible. Chance of shra. SW winds g25kt.

Saturday MainlyVFR. Chance of mid-late afternoon MVFR in
cigs and -shra.

Saturday night and Sunday MVFR/ifr conds in rain. E-se winds
g20-25kt.

Monday MVFR conds possible in showers.

Marine
Gale warnings were converted to scas earlier as wind gusts are
below 35 kt. The SCA will expire near daybreak for the harbor,
bays, and sound, and then by late morning for the ocean.

Freezing spray was kept in for later tonight into the morning
especially for the ocean waters and eastern end of the sound.

High pressure moves across the waters tonight, and passes well
to the east Friday. Winds diminish during this time, but begin
to increase from the SW later Friday into Friday night.

A cold front approaches from the north Saturday, and settles near or
just south of the waters Saturday night into Sunday. Winds diminish,
and turn toward the e/ne. Speeds increase yet again Sunday as high
pressure builds well to the north.

Hydrology
Unsettled weather from this weekend through early next week may
result in an inch or more of precipitation. However, this would
occur over a prolonged period and would be intermittent, so no
hydrologic concerns are anticipated. Snowpack melt in interior
sections will continue at a slow rate through Thursday with
most areas likely loosing any significant snowpack by Saturday
as temperatures rise to above normal readings and lows even
remain above freezing.

Climate
The following are record low temperatures for Thursday march
23, 2017 along with the forecast low temperatures.

Record low temperature forecast low temperature
---------------------- ------------------------
central park... ... ..12 (1875) 20
laguardia... ... ... ..20 (1959) 22
kennedy... ... ... ... .20 (1959) 20
islip... ... ... ... ... 15 (2004) 18
newark... ... ... ... ..13 (1934) 19
bridgeport... ... ... .19 (2004) 17

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz330-335-338-340-345.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for anz350-
353-355.

Synopsis... Dw/cs
near term... Pw
short term... Cs
long term... Pw/cs
aviation...

marine... Dw/cs
hydrology... Cs
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi48 min NNW 4.1 G 8 22°F 40°F1029.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi36 min NNW 14 G 17 22°F -3°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 21 mi81 min NW 19 G 25 25°F 3 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi48 min N 12 G 16 23°F 40°F1030.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi48 min 24°F 38°F1029.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi48 min NNW 5.1 G 9.9 22°F 1030.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi76 min 26°F 42°F5 ft1029.2 hPa (+2.6)7°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi11 minNNW 7 G 1410.00 miFair19°F-7°F29%1029.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi10 minNNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair21°F-5°F31%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W5NW12
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1 day agoN7
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NW5NW5N4CalmSW5CalmNW4NW464--3
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2 days agoN8N11N9
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G11

Tide / Current Tables for Essex, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Essex
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 02:09 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:44 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:53 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.90.60.81.21.72.22.62.92.92.521.50.90.40.30.61.21.72.22.62.72.52.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:51 PM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2-1.4-0.50.51.52.121.50.7-0.4-1.6-2.4-2.6-2.1-1.3-0.211.92.21.91.30.3-0.9-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.