Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:19 AM   Moonset 6:59 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 344 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Overnight - NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Wed night - W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers with isolated tstms in the evening. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain and chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of tstms. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Fri night - N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 344 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A slow moving frontal boundary gets to the south today before lifting back north as a warm front before stalling again through mid week. Low pressure develops to the west on Thursday and pushes a frontal boundary through by Friday. The low and its associated front should be east of the waters to begin the weekend.

FXUS61 KBGM 070716 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 316 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Brief high pressure will result in a sunny pleasant day.
However, a warm front tonight will bring showers and a chance of thunder, followed by a cold front Wednesday which may produce isolated yet gusty afternoon thunderstorms. On-and-off chances for rain will continue later this week as multiple disturbances pass through the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
240 AM Update...
After a quick respite today, a warm front tonight followed by a cold front Wednesday will bring showers and a chance of thunder. Main near term concern is the potential for isolated yet gusty severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

Shield of high thin clouds is finally pressing off to the east, allowing for radiational cooling of a dry air mass in Central New York yet still some residual boundary layer moisture persists in Northeast Pennsylvania along with a few clouds. As such, there is quite a contrast in temperatures during the predawn hours, from near 40 degrees north to upper 50s south. A few spots may even find upper 30s in our typically coldest spots such as the upper Susquehanna tributary headwaters.

High pressure will pass over the region today, with mixing down of low dewpoints from the very dry air above the boundary layer.
That and full sunshine should help maximize diurnal range to highs of around 70-80 degrees, and minimum relative humidity in the upper 20s to upper 30s percent range except still 40s percent in higher terrain surrounding the Wyoming Valley. Winds will be very light.

The weak high exits quickly, as a warm front surges into the area overnight well ahead of low pressure approaching from the Upper Midwest. There will be instability aloft, so the quickly advancing showers may be accompanied by elevated embedded thunderstorms. Rain amounts tonight are forecast to range from a tenth or two of an inch south and central to more like three to four tenths of an inch for the NY Thruway counties.

Wednesday is starting to look fairly interesting. The warm frontal zone will lift to our northern zones in the morning, laying a track for the approaching low to zip through the area during the afternoon followed by a sagging cold front. This will be forced by a jet maximum aloft which will advect in an elevated mixed layer, with steep mid to upper level lapse rates and potential for top-heavy Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Source region of that elevated unstable mixed layer is all the way from the Four Corners region. The risk for severe thunderstorms is there, yet conditional, because coverage will be limited by the amount of dry air aloft even if unstable. Model soundings suggest biggest threat will be cold- pool driven gusty winds, with an inverted-V profile south of the frontal zone which will promote good mixing down. Unidirectional deep shear will also be quite strong; flow to the tune of 60-80 knots at 6 km. Top-heavy CAPE from the elevated mixed layer aloft also points to a risk of hail as well. Since almost the whole area will get into the warm sector, highs Wednesday will be in the 70s to lower 80s except it may struggle to get out of the 60s in northern Oneida County.

Again, though cells may be isolated in coverage Wednesday afternoon, they could be potent with damaging gusts and hail while also moving along very quickly due to strong deep flow.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms will diminish Wednesday evening. Low pressure north of the Ohio Valley will slowly move east through the night, and a few showers may work into western parts of the CWA before dawn Thursday. This low looks to track into western PA Thursday, after which its track becomes a little more uncertain. Either way, rain showers will spread south to north across NEPA and CNY, north of a warm front draped across the Mid Atlantic. Precip will linger across the area Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
315 AM Update...

Forecast confidence goes off the rails in the long term. Low pressure will likely be located somewhere in eastern NY or NEPA Friday morning, with rain showers continuing. The GFS slowly lifts the low north towards the Saint Lawrence Valley, while the ECMWF is far weaker and progressive. Ensembles suggest a wide range of possible solutions between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening in terms of precip chances. Kept lower-end PoPs for Friday Night into the first part of Saturday as we may end up in a break between systems. The next system looks to bring another round of rain showers to the area later Sunday, pushing east of the area Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through today with high pressure in control. There will be subtle diurnally-influenced fluctuations in wind direction, with speeds mostly under 5 knots. A warm front will quickly approach the area this evening which will cause a ceiling to develop, though above 15000 feet. Showers and embedded thunder are forecast to sweep southwest to northeast across the terminals with associated restrictions later tonight after 06Z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning....Restrictions likely with rain showers along a warm front; embedded thunder possible.

Wednesday afternoon-early evening...While mostly VFR, isolated yet gusty thunderstorms will be possible.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region, especially Thursday-Friday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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