Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Moscow, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:05 AM EST (10:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:11PMMoonset 11:43PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 343 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Snow and sleet late this morning and early afternoon. Rain this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 343 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres approaches today and tracks over the waters on Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front approaches on Sunday night then crosses the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moscow , PA
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location: 41.35, -75.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 150945
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
445 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Things remain quiet through the morning. However, a large
winter storm will move in with snow developing in the afternoon
to early evening, possibly heavy. Northeast pennsylvania and the
southern tier to catskills in new york will have a wintry mix
for a time Thursday night, then back to snow into Friday. The
rest of central new york will be mainly snow for the whole event.

Near term through Friday
415 am update...

incoming winter storm will have a significant impact on the
region this afternoon through early Friday. Winter storm warning
has been issued for bradford-susquehanna in pa, and most of
central ny, where a swath of 5-9 inches of snow is expected.

The remainder of northeast pa, and delaware-sullivan in ny have
been placed in winter weather advisories for combination of 3-6
inches of snow- sleet as well as freezing rain potential of one
to two tenths of an inch.

Models have come into better agreement on thermal profiles and
mass fields for this incoming storm. Confidence has thus
increased in precipitation types and amounts. Quick burst of 2-4
inches of snow is still expected to develop from south to north
this afternoon-early evening, which itself will probably cause
travel issues. Onset will range from just after noon in wilkes-
barre and poconos, to mid afternoon across the twin tiers and
catskills, to late afternoon finger lakes and upper susquehanna
areas, to early evening from syracuse-utica northward.

Sleet and some freezing rain will then mix in tonight, mainly
northeast pa and east of i-81 in central ny. However, depth of
below freezing layer under warm nose aloft will be fairly thick;
unusually so for this early in the season. The biggest point of
uncertainty is how much freezing rain will actually manage to
occur, considering much of it could remain sleet instead due to
thickness of cold layer. Thermal profiles support a window of
freezing rain to be more likely in the wyoming valley pa, to
especially poconos pa-catskills ny, yet even there a decent
amount will probably be sleet. For those areas, we are figuring
on 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice. Further north, primarily sleet
will mix in with the snow, where mixing occurs at all, though a
trace of ice cannot be ruled out. Finally, from central southern
tier ny through finger lakes and syracuse- utica areas, it will
probably remain all snow tonight, and snowfall rates could
actually get robust within a narrow pivoting axis coinciding
with 700mb frontogenesis deformation band. 1-2 inches per hour
may occur at times. It is not out of the question that a narrow
band of around 10 inches total accumulation could occur
somewhere within the warning area, if that axis of higher
snowfall rates ends up persisting with little movement over a
several hour period.

Models are also agreeing that upper wave will move faster to
quickly allow the storm to exit fairly early Friday morning.

Just some lingering scattered snow showers, mixing with rain,
are expected during the day Friday with little additional
accumulation. Temperatures will also climb into a 35-40 degree
range for highs at most locations, allowing for some melting of
the snow-sleet-slop.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
Friday night... Airmass behind departing system will only be
marginally cold enough for lake effect snow showers. Soundings also
show a fair amount of shear in the steering layer which is around
280 degrees. Best chance for accumulating snow is for northern oneida
county and even here amounts are light. Overnight lows will range in
the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Saturday... As the next surface trough approaches the region late
Saturday the low level flow backs through the morning hours keeping
the best chance for snow rain showers in extreme northern oneida
county with the rest of the region mainly dry. By late day as the
boundary approaches pops will increase into the chance category for
much of the western northern forecast area. Likely pops will still
be confined to northern oneida county. Highs will range in the mid
30s to around 40 making for mixed snow rain showers.

Saturday night... Scattered snow showers are expected across much of
central new york as weak boundary moves through area. Best chance for
accumulating snow will be in the northern forecast area where some
lake enhancement will occur with westerly flow shifting to northwest
overnight. Overnight lows will range in the mid upper 20s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
The long term forecast will be dominated by a broad upper level
trough with temperatures expected to run about 10 degrees below
normal.

No big storms are forecast during this period but embedded mid level
short waves moving through the broad upper trough will trigger
scattered snow showers and some lake effect snow showers. Monday
night and Tuesday night looks the coldest with overnight lows in the
teens to lower 20s. By the end of the period the trough relaxes with
temperatures expected to moderate Wednesday and Thursday.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
06z update...

departing high pressure will keepVFR conditions going through
the morning. However, a large winter storm will cause snow to
develop south to north across the terminals this afternoon-early
evening. Expected arrival of the snow ranges from 19z for kavp
to between 20z-22z for kelm-kbgm-kith, to around or shortly
after 00z ksyr-krme. Fuel alternate to ifr conditions should
abruptly set in as snow begins. In the evening, high confidence
in sleet development for kavp and eventually some freezing rain,
as well as low level wind shear. For kbgm, sleet will mix in
for a time towards 06z Friday; remainder of ny terminals should
stay primarily snow. Surface winds through the period will
generally be east or southeast 4 to 8 knots, though east-
northeast for kavp.

Outlook...

late Thursday night through Friday morning... Gradual exit of
winter storm with snow or mix and significant restrictions.

Friday afternoon through Saturday night... Intermittent
restrictions from lake effect snow showers; mainly ksyr-krme.

Sunday through Monday... Weak passing wave with possible light
snow and associated restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 am est
Friday for paz040-043-044-047-048-072.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 am est
Friday for paz038-039.

Ny... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Friday for nyz009-016>018-036-037-044>046.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 am est
Friday for nyz057-062.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 am est
Friday for nyz015-022>025-055-056.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Rrm
long term... Rrm
aviation... Rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 92 mi35 min 32°F 48°F1035.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 95 mi35 min ENE 8.9 G 15 31°F 1036.2 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 95 mi35 min NE 4.1 G 6 32°F 45°F1035.2 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA7 mi11 minN 010.00 miFair26°F17°F69%1033.6 hPa
Mount Pocono, Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport, PA19 mi12 minE 410.00 miFair20°F15°F81%1033.8 hPa

Wind History from AVP (wind in knots)
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NW13NW9N11N7N7N7N6N7NE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE4CalmCalmNE3CalmNW6W6NW10NW8NW6
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2 days agoE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmW55S7S4S6S4Calm3SE3Calm5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
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Thu -- 05:32 AM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:52 AM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.91.41.82.12.32.32.11.61.31.110.91.11.62.12.42.62.62.41.91.41.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for New Brunswick, New Jersey
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New Brunswick
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:40 AM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EST     1.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:51 PM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:40 PM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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44.54.64.23.42.621.71.61.92.73.74.55.15.24.9432.21.51.111.52.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.