Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wakefield-Peacedale, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:53 AM EST (07:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:39AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 117 Am Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.gale warning in effect from 9 am est this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Am Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will pass across the great lakes late tonight and Tuesday. A warm front passes N of the waters, rain will fall heavily at times with gusty south to southeast winds late tonight through Tue. A cold front will pass across the waters Wed as winds shift to W to nw. Winds will remain gusty Wed and Thu as large high pres builds toward the waters. The high will crest over the waters on Fri shifting east of the waters on Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wakefield-Peacedale, RI
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location: 41.37, -71.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230622
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
122 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
Scattered showers along with areas of drizzle and fog persist
overnight with some light icing across interior northern ma. A
fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain and
perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday along with
strong winds across portions of eastern ma and ri. Blustery, dry
and colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, then a
warming trend next weekend. A cold front may bring showers next
Sunday or Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
130 am update...

confluent flow over southeast canada will continue to support
cold 1033 mb high pressure at the surface with cold air damming
(cad) signature across interior southern new england.

Subfreezing temps continue across the high terrain of worcester
county into the east slopes of the berkshires. Subfreezing temps
continue to drain southward into interior northeast ma with
bed lwm both AOB 32 degs. Thus areas of freezing drizzle fog
will continue until 12z across this region and possibly until
15z along the ma nh border. Winter weather advisories will
remain posted for icy conditions thru that time period,
basically along and north of the mass pike and along and west of
i-495.

Elsewhere this shallow cold air via nne flow continues to
support areas of dense fog across much of ct ri and interior ma.

May have to expanded dense fog advisory in areal coverage if
current trends continue.

Any precip into the predawn hours will be very light drizzle.

Steadier heavier precip arrives later this morning across
western ma ct.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Tuesday highlights...

* heavy rain isolated thunderstorm risk
* brief poor drainage street flooding possible
* period of strong wind gusts along and southeast of bos-pvd corridor
Tuesday details...

perhaps some pockets of left over light freezing rain across
interior ma early Tuesday morning... But that should quickly be
changing over to plain rain. The main story will be surface low
pressure tracking northwest across the great lakes allowing most of
our area to gradually warm sector. This will result in both pwats
and southerly LLJ 3 standard deviations above normal. Will break it
down a bit more below.

Heavy rain isolated thunderstorm concerns...

given the above ingredients combined with strong forcing... Heavy
rain will overspread the region Tuesday morning into the early
afternoon from west to east. The system is quite progressive... So
the bulk of the heavy rain will fall within a 6 hour period.

Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are expected.

Model soundings also indicate a few hundred j kg of MUCAPE along
with steep mid level lapse rates... So an isolated thunderstorm or
two is certainly possible. The greatest risk will be near the
southeast new england coast. The heavy rain will mainly just result
in typical brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. However... A
flood watch has been issued for the millers river near athol where
an ice jam remains frozen in place and has the potential to cause
additional flooding. A flood warning also remains in effect for the
ct river at middle haddam... Where this heavy rain may result in
increased flooding problems as a result of the ice jam.

Fortunately... This system is fairly progressive and the bulk of the
rain should have exited the southeast new england coast by 00z.

Strong wind potential...

a potent southerly low level jet around 80 knots at 925 mb will move
across the southeast new england coast Tuesday afternoon and early
evening. Given surface temperatures expected to warm well into the
50s combined with heavy rain and potential convective elements a
wind advisory has been issued. We are expecting some gusts to 50
mph Tuesday afternoon and early evening along and southeast of the
boston to providence corridor.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Big picture...

longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the plains and
shallow troughs over the pacific and atlantic coasts. The atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern usa
during this period. A small but sharp trough moves across new
england Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal january levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through quebec. Dry slot moves up across new england Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday... More than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with pw values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

high pressure builds over the region. Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14c at 900 mb suggest MAX temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmass dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

high pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows FROPA on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the ggem shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

130 am 0630z update...

today...

widespread ifr lifr across the region much of the day in areas
of drizzle and fog this morning with freezing drizzle and
freezing fog across interior ma thru 12z-15z. Thereafter
ifr lifr continues with period of heavy showers developing
14z-16z western ct ma then beginning 16z-18z ri eastern ma. Very
heavy rain during this time with embedded thunder possible along
with llws as 85 kt low level southerly jet moves across the
south coast 17z-23z from west to east. Conditions improve 20z-
22z western ct ma then 22z-01z ri and eastern ma with a wind
shift from south to southwest.

Tonight...

big improvement with any leftover ifr lifr eastern ma around 00z
quickly improving toVFR by 03z or so. ElsewhereVFR with
developing gusty SW winds. Any leftover showers over CAPE cod
and nantucket at 00z quickly moves offshore. Thus dry runways
overnight.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF on overall trends but
lower confidence on exact details. Heavy showers with possibly
embedded thunder 17z-22 and llws.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF on overall trends but
lower confidence on exact details. Heavy showers with possibly
embedded thunder 15z-18z
outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday night through Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Ene winds will shift to se
tonight with some gusts to 25 knots across our eastern waters along
with 3 to 6 foot seas. The rest of our waters should generally have
winds seas remaining below small craft advisory thresholds... But
areas of fog may be locally dense.

Tuesday... Moderate to high confidence. Impressive 70 to 80 knot low
level jet lifts across the region from southwest to northeast.

Despite inversion in place... Heavy rain and enough mixing should
provide a few hours of southwest 35 to 40 knot wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. Gale warnings are posted for all waters
as seas build between 7 and 11 feet.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Hydrology
The heavy rain will mainly just result in typical brief nuisance poor
drainage street flooding. However... A flood watch has been issued for
the millers river near athol where an ice jam remains frozen in place
and has the potential to cause additional flooding. A flood warning
also remains in effect for the ct river at middle haddam... Where this
heavy rain may result in increased flooding problems as a result of
the ice jam.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Dense fog advisory until 9 am est this morning for ctz004.

Ma... Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm est this evening
for maz013-015>024.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am est this morning for maz002-004-
008-009-012-026.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
maz002>006-008-026.

Flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this afternoon
for maz003-004.

Ri... Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 pm est this evening
for riz002>008.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am est this morning for riz001.

Marine... Gale warning from 9 am this morning to 8 pm est this evening
for anz232>235-237-250-254>256.

Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 6 pm est this evening
for anz230-231-236-251.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Nocera
short term... Frank
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb nocera
marine... Wtb frank
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 15 mi53 min N 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 37°F1018.2 hPa (-1.9)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 17 mi53 min N 6 G 7 37°F 36°F1018.7 hPa (-2.1)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 22 mi53 min NNE 4.1 G 6 37°F 1018.3 hPa (-2.1)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 22 mi68 min NNE 5.1 37°F 998 hPa37°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 26 mi53 min NNE 6 G 7 37°F 37°F1018.4 hPa (-2.1)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi53 min SSE 11 G 11 42°F 1018.5 hPa (-1.5)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi43 min ENE 6 G 7 43°F 1021.6 hPa42°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi53 min N 4.1 G 7 39°F 37°F1017.2 hPa (-2.3)
PVDR1 30 mi53 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 1018.8 hPa (-2.2)38°F
FRXM3 30 mi53 min 38°F 38°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi53 min NE 7 G 8 38°F 1017.7 hPa (-2.3)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 31 mi53 min ENE 5.1 G 6 37°F 35°F1018.3 hPa (-2.1)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 31 mi53 min 39°F 35°F1018.9 hPa (-2.2)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 31 mi53 min 46°F 35°F1017 hPa (-2.0)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 36 mi40 min 40°F3 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 48 mi53 min 45°F 34°F1018.6 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI13 mi57 minS 98.00 miOvercast47°F46°F100%1018.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI13 mi60 minN 00.50 miFog42°F42°F100%1018 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI19 mi60 minE 30.25 miFog41°F41°F100%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N3N3CalmE5E6E6NE4NE6NE8NE9NE9NE10NE9E11E12E10E10E9NE5N4Calm
1 day agoW3CalmNW3W3N3CalmCalmCalmNW5NW73SW6SW6SW4SW3S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW8SW7SW7SW9
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SW6SW3CalmW4SW3W4SW5W4SW4W5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
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Tue -- 05:19 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:09 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:41 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.31.70.90.40.10.10.40.81.31.82.32.52.41.81.10.40-00.20.611.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Narragansett Pier, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Narragansett Pier
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:06 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:47 AM EST     2.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:32 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.31.60.90.30.10.30.611.42.12.62.82.51.810.4000.30.71.21.92.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.