Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wakefield-Peacedale, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:25PM Friday June 23, 2017 1:15 PM EDT (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:56AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1025 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Saturday evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers. Isolated tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1025 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Remnants of cindy along with the threat of heavy rain and Thunder- storms sweep across the waters around Saturday morning, clearing out late in the day ahead of a sweeping cool front. Lower visibilities forecast during this unsettled weather pattern. Cooler weather into early next week, remaining unsettled. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wakefield-Peacedale, RI
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location: 41.37, -71.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231400
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1000 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Mild, humid air builds across the region today into tonight out
ahead of the remnants of cindy which will bring the threat of
heavy rain and possible flooding Saturday morning. A cold front
will sweep the remnants of cindy out to sea through late Saturday,
improving overnight. Seasonably warm and less humid conditions
Sunday will be followed by cooler and somewhat unsettled weather
for early next week. Warmer conditions return for the latter half
of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1000 am update...

difficult forecast is on tap for today as guidance continues to
poorly handle current conditions. Isolated showers that were
across western ma moved northeastward towards the nh border.

These showers are in association with the theta-e gradient and
the higher moisture transport. Thus this will push sne into a
very moist airmass for the remainder of the day.

Latest satellite imagery shows dry slot working its way across
ct and ri and towards ma. This is in association with dry air
in the mid-levels and lower k values. This break in the clouds
will help increase surface temps rather quickly into the 80s
over the next few hours. Biggest question, if these breaks of
clouds will be enough to trigger iso to sct showers and
thunderstorms. See a few popping up across upstate ny but lapse
rates are quiet poor over the region. Will continue to watch,
but believe a trying trend will be in favor for the rest of the
morning.

Attention then turns to showers across the mid-atlantic south
of long islands associated with weak wave. Will these continue
to develop and become more widespread? All the hi-res guidance
as well as the hrrr shows that this bulk of showers will begin
to fizzle thanks to very weak ridging aloft. Still expect a few
hit or miss from this system, but not as widespread as what is
currently occurring.

Any strong storm that does develop could result in some gusty
winds as LLJ is increasing aloft. However the main threat will
be heavy rain as pwats are currently 1.7 inches with more
moisture on the way thanks to cindy. Will continue to monitor
for any flood related products later today.

Previous discussion...

showers and thunderstorms for the early half of the day,
potential for heavy rain. Consensus of forecast guidance has an
initial wave of tropical energy associated with cindy sweeping
the region during the early half of the day. Collocated low-
level convergence of high theta-e air per nose of h925-85 jet
beneath a pseudo h925-7 warm frontal boundary with parent mid-
level ascent. Especially if there is partial clearing in the
morning presenting the opportunity for the boundary layer to
destabilize, can see an opportunity where the present wave out
of the mid-atlantic to maintain longevity, perhaps becoming
stronger. Thinking mainly across the interior N W away from s
flow off the cooler ocean waters which would keep the surface
more capped. However forecast guidance not so robust. Increasing
moisture with precipitable waters rising towards 2 inches, 0-6
km bulk shear around 30 kts out of the sw, and CAPE around 1-2k
j kg. Am going to lean with high chance pops N W across the
interior. Think the high- res 3 km NAM and both WRF have the
right idea. S E becoming socked in with low clouds, possible
fog, the region cooler at the surface is capped. May see some
showers, perhaps heavy, but greater concern is N w. Looking at
the late morning into early afternoon period. Not so confident
on severe weather outcomes but agree with the marginal risk
advertised by spc. Believe the main threat to be heavy rain and
frequent lightning, some localized nuisance flooding concerns,
with gusty winds and hail secondary threats.

The later half of the day looks to be dry. Behind the morning wave,
a combination of subsidence and mid-level warming around h6-8 puts
the squash on any additional wet-weather activity, stabilizing. If
throughout the day places remain partially clear, some locations
could see highs into the low 90s such as the merrimack river valley.

Continued cool S E under lower clouds, possible fog. Otherwise, main
theme for today is warm and muggy. Dewpoints well into the 60s, some
places near 70.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight into Saturday...

possibility of heavy rain, flooding associated with cindy leftovers.

An anomalous tropical airmass surging NE out ahead of a cold front
baroclinic zone. The tropical-moist plume converging with higher
theta-e ahead of a mean long-wave trough axis at the mid-levels and
beneath decent diffluence within the upper levels, there is support
for deep layer forcing yielding efficient warm-rain processes with
freezing level heights at least above 10 kft, in this case around 14
kft. However outcomes are challenging to nail down and determine as
they can often be underestimated or misplaced by forecast guidance.

In the last several forecast runs, model solutions have waffled with
the remnants of cindy. It makes for subsequent challenges as to the
possibility of flash flooding, if any one area is under particular
threat of seeing an excessive amount of rain in a short period of
time.

But with this forecast there is continued preference to the high-res
3 km NAM and WRF forecast model solutions. Suspect a possibility of
maintenance of shower, thunderstorm activity out of upstate ny and
pa across S new england during the evening hours. Convergent low-
level forcing of high theta-e air beneath continued energy streaming
ne with the tropical-moist plume. Given the lack of diurnal heating,
main concern is the potential for heavy rainers, nuisance flooding.

Then around morning, crux of heavy rain is expected as the remnants
of cindy clash with a cool front dropping s, clearing out through
the afternoon. The 3 km NAM and wrf-arw fit the forecast thinking,
that the broad tropical-moist plume though focused with remnants of
cindy would also converge along the low to mid level cool front that
sweeps across the region through afternoon.

Low confidence at this point concerning exactly where the greatest
threat will be. Will continue to highlight possible flooding hazards
in the hazardous weather outlook. Can't rule out potential for rain-
fall rates of around an inch per hour and excessive rainfall amounts
greater than 2 inches storm-total. Low confidence with respect to
forecast grid rainfall amounts that add up around 0.50-0.75 inches
given the difficulty in determining exactly where the heaviest rainfall
will occur.

The cool front sliding through late in the day, will see potential
blustery SW winds depending on the ability to mix down, perhaps
brought down mechanically via heavy rain given a saturated profile
that is moist adiabatic. Prior to and throughout, low clouds and fog
will likely remain an issue for the s-coast with the possibility of
visibility down to a quarter mile or less requiring headlines. Will
monitor for now.

Behind the front winds back W and we begin to see partial clearing.

Temperatures difficult to forecast given some uncertainty on the
timing of the front and how quickly we clear out. Could warm into
the mid 80s but will keep it conservative with seasonable highs
around the upper 70s to low 80s. With the warm up may see some brief
breezy westerlies behind the front with boundary layer mixing.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* seasonably warm and less humid on Sunday
* cooler and somewhat unsettled pattern for early next week with
showers possible at times
* warmer weather returns toward the end of next week
overview...

longwave trof over the gt lakes region will gradually slide east to
new eng Tue Wed timeframe as multiple shortwaves rotate through the
flow. This will bring a somewhat unsettled pattern for the first
half of the week with cooler temps, near or a bit below normal.

Models signaling a pattern change for the end of the week as ridging
builds northward along the east coast which should bring warmer
conditions for the end of next week.

Details...

Saturday night and Sunday...

cold front expected to be moving off the coast Sat evening followed
by drier conditions during the night. Low risk of a lingering
evening shower for the CAPE islands, otherwise clearing skies during
the night with cooler and much less humid airmass moving in.

The dry airmass will continue into Sunday with sunshine mixing with
diurnal CU in the afternoon. Fairly robust mid level shortwave will
move NE from the gt lakes with a secondary cold front moving into
sne. Brunt of shortwave energy passes to the north and west but
can't rule out a few showers developing in the interior in the
afternoon. 850 mb temps 12-13c and soundings indicate deep mixing on
Sunday above 850 mb so temps may overachieve. Expect highs reaching
low to mid 80s, except a bit cooler along the south coast with sw
flow. Comfortable humidity levels with dewpoints in the 50s.

Monday into Wednesday...

mid level trof gradually moves into new eng as series of shortwaves
rotate through the flow. Cooling temps aloft with 500 mb temps
reaching -18 to -20c will likely bring some diurnal showers at times
although certainly not a washout and expect a mix of clouds and sun.

Any showers Mon should be confined to the interior, but all areas
tue as the trof moves into the region. Best chance for any thunder
will likely be Tue with tt into the lower 50s and 500 mb temps
approaching -20c. Upper trof begins to slide to the east on wed.

Cold pool aloft lingers but moisture is limited so expect limited
coverage of any showers wed. Temps slightly below normal with highs
mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Thursday...

as mid level trof exits, rising heights into new eng as SE us ridge
builds north. High pres moves off mid atlc coast with good warm
advection. Warmer conditions expected with temps possibly reaching
well into the 80s in some locations.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

ifr lifr stratus and fog along the s-coast with sct-bkn low-
endVFR elsewhere. Brief improvement possible at times along the
s-coast up toVFR but ifr may linger over the islands. S winds
around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, strongest across
e SE new england. Initial showers moving through western new eng
this morning with more shra tsra chances expected over N W ct
and N W ma, mainly afternoon into early evening. Tempo MVFR ifr
with ra +ra.

Tonight into Saturday...

MVFR-lifr CIGS with MVFR-ifr vsbys with br fg. Shra tsra early
tonight approaching from the w. Ra +ra approaching from the sw
towards morning, exiting around midday ahead of a wind shift
from the w. Prior to the wind shift will continue to see sw
winds with potential gusts 25 to 30 kts llws possible for se
coastal terminals as is some embedded tsra. Improving towards
evening to low-endVFR skc.

Kbos terminal...VFR today with gusty SW winds up to 25 kts,
lower CIGS into this evening with increasing rain chances.

Kbdl terminal... May need to watch for possible shra tsra NW of
the terminals around late morning into early afternoon.

Otherwise low-endVFR CIGS today with blustery SW winds that
will lower into evening prior to onset of ra +ra.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR with sct-bkn diurnal clouds. A few
diurnal showers possible in the interior
Tuesday... MainlyVFR CIGS with a few showers isolated t-storms
possible.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ...

1000 am update... Went ahead an issued a SCA for bos harbor and
narragansett bay. Winds gusts of 25 kts are possible during the
later half of the day.

Sw winds on the increase with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts through
early Saturday prior to a cool frontal passage. Waves building
around 5 to 6 feet on the waters as the remnants of cindy are
advected NE across the waters around Saturday morning. Prior to
and during this time, likely to be either a combination of low
clouds and fog with visibility down to a quarter mile or less
possible. Improving late Saturday as winds become westerly while
beginning to diminish along with wave action.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Sunday... Increasing SW flow but speeds should remain below SCA with
a few gusts 20-22 kt nearshore waters in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday... Quiet boating weather with winds and seas below
sca.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are rather high through this weekend during the
night time cycles. Boston has a 12.3 ft tide just before midnight
tonight, a 12.4 ft high tide around midnight Sat night and 12.2 ft
just after midnight Sun night. Fortunately, offshore winds are
forecast with minimal or no surge so do not anticipate any issues.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt
Saturday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 9 pm edt this
evening for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 pm edt
Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt
Saturday for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
Saturday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Dunten sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 15 mi45 min S 11 G 13 70°F 64°F1008.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 17 mi45 min S 15 G 17 69°F1008.7 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 22 mi45 min SW 7 G 15 76°F 1008.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 22 mi90 min SSW 7 79°F 1008 hPa71°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 26 mi45 min S 19 G 20 76°F 73°F1007.8 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi75 min SSW 16 G 17 65°F 1009.6 hPa (-1.1)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi30 min SSE 6 G 8 71°F 1007.6 hPa67°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi45 min S 8.9 G 9.9 76°F 63°F1007.8 hPa
PVDR1 30 mi45 min SSE 17 G 19 77°F 1007 hPa72°F
FRXM3 30 mi45 min 83°F 71°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi45 min SSW 18 G 22 80°F 1007 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 31 mi45 min S 14 G 17 80°F 70°F1006.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 31 mi45 min 84°F 72°F1008.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 31 mi45 min 71°F 66°F1008.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 36 mi50 min 64°F3 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 48 mi45 min 72°F 67°F1009 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI13 mi19 minSSW 15 G 198.00 miFair71°F66°F87%1009.2 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI13 mi22 minSSW 77.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F69°F82%1008.6 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI18 mi25 minSSW 12 G 227.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1008.1 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI19 mi22 minSSW 97.00 miA Few Clouds75°F71°F88%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW4NW44333SW7SW8SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:50 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:48 PM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.4-0.6-0.30.41.32.43.13.42.92.110.1-0.4-0.6-0.30.41.52.73.74.243.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for Narragansett Pier, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Narragansett Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:33 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:13 PM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.3-0.3-00.71.72.93.73.731.90.7-0.2-0.6-0.40.10.923.24.34.64.23.21.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.