Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:21 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1004 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Overnight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 9 seconds and ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Areas of fog. A slight chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds and ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Mon night through Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Wed through Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1004 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Light scattered showers with low ceilings and areas of fog continue this afternoon and evening as low pressure continues to spin well off shore to the east. Shower chances decrease for Sunday. High pressure builds in late Sunday with dry conditions persisting through early next week.

FXUS61 KBOX 190133 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 933 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled with periods of rain, drizzle and fog tonight.
Seasonably cool and brisk northeast winds for the coast.
Trending drier with breaks of sunshine developing Sunday afternoon from northwest to southeast, as high pressure begins to nudge in from the southwest. Summerlike warmth arrives Monday through Wednesday, then a cold front brings the next chance of showers or thunderstorms Thursday. Drier and more seasonable weather follows for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

10 PM Update...

Rain continues to dissipate across central MA at this hour, but moderate showers continue to blossom across eastern MA, with the most widespread rain focused over the Boston metro area. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain has fallen at Boston Logan Airport over the last hour.

Shower activity will continue to wane overnight with a bit of clearing even possible in far NW MA by daybreak with cloud cover across the Hudson River Valley already scattering out. Less improvement expected for eastern MA/RI given persistent onshore flow. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, will likely see fog form tonight, and it may be dense at times across far eastern MA.

715 PM Update:

Heavier rain that was focused near Worcester has begun to diminish and will continue to do so this evening. Some decent rainfall totals with several 1-2" amounts in eastern CT and central MA (thanks everyone for your reports) and even a few over 2" per amateur radio including 2.51" in Rochdale (Leicester) and 2.31" in Spencer. This band of rain formed as onshore winds from offshore low focused activity along higher terrain and had added lift from couplet jets (850 mb and 250 mb). High res models really struggled with this feature and only NSSL WRF had somewhat of a clue.

Meanwhile, another area of light rain was backing in off ocean and will affect much of eastern MA early tonight, before transitioning to patchy drizzle. Cloudy skies will prevail tonight with areas of fog, especially in areas that saw rain today, but also near coast where some dense fog is possible.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
320 PM update...

Sunday...

Rising heights slowly advect into SNE from west to east. This subsidence combined with strong/high May sun will slowly erode clouds from northwest to southeast during the afternoon.
However, persistent northeast winds will slow this trend for eastern MA into RI, where only a few late day breaks of sunshine may develop. This is where the forecast uncertainty is greatest.

Duration of sunshine will be longest across western MA/CT where highs should top out in the low 70s. 60s for most of the region, except only 55-60 across eastern MA given clouds and onshore flow, with NE winds 15-20 mph there.

There could be some spotty light rain/drizzle and areas of fog in the morning.

Sunday night...

Low clouds and areas of fog may redevelop as blyr cools and subsidence inversion remains over SNE, trapping low level moisture. Less clouds and fog westward into CT and western- central MA. Seasonably cool with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Blended in some of the cooler MOS guidance given some clearing during the evening hours. Winds will remain NE and light.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points:

* Summerlike warmth early next week - Tue and Wed look warmest * Dry overall - scattered showers/storms Thu * More seasonable temps late week

Ensembles continue theme of warming trend Mon-Wed as upper ridge builds over New England in response to digging trough over western third of country.

NBM probabilities for exceeding 80F are fairly high, especially Tue- Wed where many locations away from South Coast are at or above 75%.
Looks questionable in the Providence to Taunton to Plymouth corridor and points south due to prevailing SW flow. And on other side of the coin, NBM probabilities for 90+F are highest across interior MA from Greenfield to Amherst (40-65%) and in the Leominster and Lowell areas (40%), so it's not out of the question that we see some 90- degree readings in those areas too. Fortunately dewpoints will stay on the lower side (50s) so it won't feel oppressive nor will heat index become a significant concern. Nonetheless, many of us are not yet accustomed to summertime temperatures, so it's something to be aware of if you're planning on spending time outdoors next week.

Pattern also favors dry weather for much of the week, though an approaching cold front should bring scattered showers or thunderstorms sometime in Thu-early Fri timeframe. Not looking at a big severe weather threat but Colorado State ML does show some low chances so it's something we'll follow in the coming days. Timing of front seems to be the biggest question, whether it approaches during peak daytime heating or closer to nighttime. Front heads offshore Fri which brings in more seasonable airmass for end of the week.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update: Moderate confidence (40%).

Ceilings lower to MVFR across interior with mainly dry conditions. Farther east, IFR in low clouds, drizzle, and fog from central MA to coastal areas, with LIFR possible closer to Cape Cod and Islands. Conditions slowly improve Sunday but MVFR/IFR continue to prevail through Sunday night, though interior locations should improve to VFR Sunday afternoon and remain that way into Sunday night.

N/NE winds persist through Sunday night, with 20-25kt gusts at times near Cape Cod and Islands.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence (40%). Uncertainty on how fast lower ceilings/visibilities arrive this evening, but higher confidence on improvement Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence (70%).

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

320 PM update...

Tonight... High confidence.

NE winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this evening, slowly easing overnight. However, long ENE fetch will keep seas up to 4-6 ft across the outer MA/RI waters. This combined with marginal winds, SCA continue for the outer waters. Periods of rain/drizzle and fog will yield poor vsby at times. Weak low pressure southeast of 40N/70W benchmark is the culprit for NE winds, combined with maritime high pressure.

Sunday... High Confidence.

Offshore low and maritime high move very little, thus morning low clouds, fog and spotty light rain and drizzle expected. Some improvement in the afternoon. NE winds 10-15 kt.

Sunday night...high confidence.

More of the same weather given offshore low and maritime high persist. Lighter winds and maritime high slowly advects over the MA/RI waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-254.

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Westerly
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Sat -- 12:52 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
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Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island, Tide feet

The Race
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Sat -- 02:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:42 AM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:51 PM EDT     2.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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