Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawcatuck, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:02PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:56 PM EDT (02:56 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 12:44AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 914 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.gale watch in effect from Friday evening through Saturday morning...
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft, building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 6 ft, building to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 8 ft, subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 914 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A ridge of high pres will build south of the waters overnight and Fri. Another strong cold front will move across the region late Sat into Sat evening...followed by more gusty nw winds into Sun. A ridge of high pres will build south of the waters Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawcatuck, CT
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location: 41.38, -71.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190138
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
938 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure brings unseasonably cold and dry conditions
tonight, then much milder weather returns Friday afternoon into
Saturday with gusty southwest winds. A cold front crosses the
region Saturday followed by colder weather Sunday and Monday. A
frontal system may bring some showers Tuesday, otherwise mainly
dry and seasonably cool conditions for the rest of the week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
935 pm update...

* widespread freeze for most locations overnight
a ridge of high pressure will continue to build south of the
region overnight. This will allow for mainly clear
skies diminishing winds and an ideal night of radiational
cooling. Based on this and current temperatures... Opted to
expand the freeze warning for most of the region where the
growing season is still active. The exception is around the
urban heat island of boston... As well as portions of the cape
and islands where we will stick mainly with frost advisories.

Otherwise... Low temps across the region will bottom out in the
middle 20s to the lower 30s in many locations.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday...

high pres moves off the mid atlc coast with increasing SW flow
advecting much milder airmass into sne. 925 mb temps increase to
8-9c in the afternoon. With lots of sunshine, temps will rebound
into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. The
only issue will be the gusty SW winds which will develop in the
coastal plain in the afternoon. Gusts to 20-30 mph expected,
strongest for the CAPE islands.

Friday night...

next mid level trough will be moving across the great lakes
with attending cold front approaching from the west. Column
moisture will be increasing overnight as SW low level jet moves
into the region which may bring a few showers late Fri night.

Expect rising temps overnight in the coastal plain with gusty
sw winds near the coast. Gusts to 30-40 mph possible over the
cape islands as soundings show decent low level mixing.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
* highlights...

- except sat... Temps generally below seasonal normals.

- showers with breezy conditions Sat and again tue.

- areas that don't receive freeze tonight have a couple of
chances.

Overview and model preferences...

as previous forecaster noted, the generally persistent +ao,
+pna pattern favors an overall synoptic scale trof settling
across the E CONUS and canada. This is reflected in 18.12z progs
as an elongated h5 trof, sourcing shortwave energy and cp
airmass from victoria island nunavut northwest territories. This
pattern favors cooler than normal conditions. However it also
favors the passage of several shortwaves fronts but given its
source region, these are somewhat moisture starved. With this
morning's guidance round, ECMWF and several of the ecens members
are less progressive than its north american counterparts. With
the highly amplified pattern across the region, am concerned na
models are a bit too progressive here, so will likely add more
weight to the ECMWF and ensemble solutions. This does not make
too many wholesale changes to the forecast through mid next
week, but it does maintain the deep trof longer into the late
week. These will be the primary adjustments.

Temperatures...

aside from leading warm advection ahead of the first shortwave
passage early Saturday morning, continue to persistent h85 temp
anomalies of -10 to -15c through next weekend. The only caveat
is late Tue into wed, at which point slight push of ridging
returns these temps to near normal. This suggests generally
colder than normal conditions through the period. Sat is
warmest, with highs still in the low-mid 60s, after this, they
settle int a period of mainly mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest wed)
into late week. Lows will dip into the 30s and low 40s, but with
a few nights, particularly Sun night, falling into the 20s and
below freezing. Areas that are not impacted by the impending
freeze frost tonight may reach it at some point during this
stretch.

Precipitation...

sat, cold front rotates through late day. Noting good pre-
frontal mixing to around h85 as pwats increase to near 0.75 in
sat am. This should lead to some shra development throughout the
morning and early afternoon especially. Dry column returns
following the frontal passage Sun evening, although strong cold
advection, leading to well mixed bl could yield a spot
anafrontal shra as well overnight. Dry conditions persist for
sun and mon, until a second shortwave rotates through, once
again with a spot shra colocated with a frontal passage tue
night into wed. High pres returns late week, leading to a return
to dry conditions. Note, that given the cold airmass in place,
cannot rule out some light shsn in higher terrain particularly
sat night into early Sun or early Wed if conditions are right.

Other notes...

a couple of periods for strong winds to watch. The first, early
sat associated with a 40-50kt LLJ which could be tapped,
particularly within any stronger shra. The second, with strong
pres rises Sun following the cold frontal passage. These each
may require winds headlines, which will have to be monitored as
we approach.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

vfr. Winds diminish this evening. Near calm inland.

Friday...

vfr. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-30 kt SE new eng
coast, especially CAPE islands.

Friday night...

mainlyVFR, but some patchy MVFR CIGS and a few showers
possible late. SW gusts to 35 kt possible over CAPE islands.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Saturday: occasional MVFR, with mainlyVFR. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday through Tuesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Winds diminishing through this evening with gusts dropping below
sca. This will be short lived as increasing SW winds develop
fri into Fri night. Gusts to 30 kt Fri afternoon with gale force
gusts likely Fri night. Gale watches have been issued.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... Moderate to high
Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday through Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for today
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Freeze warning until 9 am edt Friday for ctz002>004.

Ma... Freeze warning until 9 am edt Friday for maz005>007-009>013-
017>021.

Frost advisory until 9 am edt Friday for maz014>016-022-023.

Ri... Freeze warning until 9 am edt Friday for riz001>007.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
anz231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc doody
near term... Frank
short term... Kjc
long term... Doody
aviation... Kjc doody
marine... Kjc doody
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi57 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 39°F 65°F1026.7 hPa (+0.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi192 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 45°F 1026.5 hPa24°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi57 min 50°F 60°F1026 hPa (+0.5)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 27 mi63 min W 4.1 G 6 40°F 62°F1026.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 29 mi57 min WNW 7 G 11 44°F 55°F1026.5 hPa (+1.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi72 min WNW 5.1 40°F 1027 hPa24°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi57 min WNW 5.1 G 7 41°F 1026.6 hPa (+1.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi57 min WSW 6 G 8 40°F 61°F1026.6 hPa (+1.0)
PVDR1 37 mi57 min W 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 1026.4 hPa (+1.2)22°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi57 min W 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 61°F1025.9 hPa (+1.0)
FRXM3 41 mi57 min 45°F 26°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi57 min 44°F 61°F1026.7 hPa (+1.1)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi57 min W 13 G 18 44°F 1026.3 hPa (+1.1)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 43 mi57 min WNW 21 G 23 46°F 1026.6 hPa (+1.0)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 46 mi72 min WNW 19 G 25 50°F 66°F4 ft
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 47 mi44 min 63°F4 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi67 min WNW 21 G 25 51°F 63°F4 ft1026.7 hPa (+0.6)32°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair38°F26°F62%1026.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi61 minNW 610.00 miFair34°F28°F82%1026.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI20 mi61 minWNW 810.00 miFair45°F26°F48%1027.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi63 minWNW 11 G 19 mi48°F26°F42%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmW4W4W8W9W7W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island
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Westerly
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:56 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:30 PM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.41.82.22.42.42.32.11.81.410.81.11.522.32.62.62.42.21.81.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:29 AM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:55 PM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-0.50.61.51.81.71.30.6-0.4-1.4-2-2-1.5-0.80.21.21.81.81.50.9-0.1-1.2-2.1-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.