Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawcatuck, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday April 18, 2019 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
This afternoon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Showers.
Sun..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front approaches from the sw this afternoon, lifting across the waters tonight. For Fri and Sat, our coastal waters will remain E of a series of low pres areas lifting n. This will result in persistent and gusty southerly wind flow across the waters along with showers at times. The low pres will weaken as it moves across the waters Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawcatuck, CT
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location: 41.38, -71.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181400
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1000 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
An approaching warm front will bring a few showers this
afternoon. The warm front lifts to the north tonight and Friday
followed by warmer and more humid conditions along with patchy
light rain and drizzle at times. A period of heavy rainfall is
possible late Friday night into Saturday night as slow moving
low pressure approaches from the west. The low pressure moves
across new england Sunday. Off and on rain chances continue
through Tuesday, then expecting drier conditions during the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Morning soundings showed much dry air below 850 mb. Not
surprising then that the showers that moved into the region
turned into sprinkles or virga. Expect this to continue through
early afternoon.

Soundings also showed a pronounced inversion with base at 850
mb. The air above the inversion is quite moist, thus the clouds
moving overhead. Winds are light south below the inversion but
become west-southwest 30-40 kt above. Thus the weather is moving
along but with little wind at the surface.

Expect this to change a little. Upper ridge over new england will
shift offshore during the afternoon, bringing an increasing
southerly component to the movement of surface weather. A warm
front over DELMARVA will move north in response to this change
and should move through southern new england this evening.

Convergence along the front will bring another patch of showers
later this afternoon. Milder more humid air moves in behind the
warm front. Finally, a 40-50 kt low level south jet will move
overhead. Not all of that will be brought the final 2000 feet to
the surface, but expect gusty winds to develop during the
afternoon, about 20-25 kt.

No changes to the temperature forecast at this time.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Tonight...

any shower activity expected to lift to the north by evening.

Mid level trough amplifies across the ms valley with downstream
ridging building just east of new eng. Drier air in the column
lifts north across the region during the night as abundant low
level moisture persists. In fact, very dry air in the mid levels
move into the region after midnight. This will result in areas
of low clouds and patchy drizzle light rain developing as the
warm front lifts north across the region. Given the dry air
aloft, precip will likely be more drizzle than showers. Rising
temps overnight through the 50s after the warm fropa. Low level
jet remains across SE new eng but inverted temp profile should
prevent keep stronger winds from mixing down to the ground.

Friday...

high amplitude trough and developing closed low over tn valley
slowly moves east, but remains well west of sne through the day.

The pronounced dry air aloft over new eng will continue with
lots of low level moisture leading to more patchy drizzle at
times. Deeper moisture and strong forcing for ascent will be
focused along a boundary well north and west of sne where
heavier showers will be focused. Some of these showers may
reach far western new eng toward evening as the deeper
moisture approaches. Sne in warm sector with temps rising well
into the 60s, with lower 70s in the merrimack valley and NE ma,
but cooler along the immediate south coast. The airmass will
have a humid feel as dewpoints climb well into the 50s to near
60.

Gusty SW winds expected as the low level jet persists and the
warmer air will allow for increased mixing in the shallow
boundary layer. SW gusts to 25-35 mph will be possible at
times.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* showers at times Friday night through Sunday with heavy rain
potential Fri night and sat
* drier but lingering shower chances next week
Friday night through Sunday...

Friday night better moisture moves in and we move into a 24-36 hour
period of more widespread, locally heavy rain. The big picture
perspective shows ridging over the intermountain west and a
deep, bowling ball low forming over the tn valley at the mid
levels. This amplifying trough will keep the cutoff low out of
the best steering flow, letting it to languish over the east
coast through early Sunday before finally lifting out. At the
surface we see a similar evolution. Surface low center lifts
into southern qc by Saturday night bringing a weakening cold
front through sne on Sunday.

Being that we'll be on the east side of this trough for an extended
period, we'll be on the receiving end of prolonged widespread rain
as mentioned previously. A fire hose of moisture (pwats over 1.5", 2-
3 sd above normal for late april) stretches all the way from the
tropics to southern new england through early Sunday. This moisture
transport comes courtesy of a robust and persistent 50-60kt 925mb
llj. This trajectory could bring heavy bands of training precip to
portions of southern new england late Friday through Saturday. There
is still considerable uncertainty where exactly the heaviest bands
will set up, but the best chance of the greatest rainfall totals
looks to be over western and central ma ct. By Sunday night most
locations will have received 1-2" of rain, with locally higher
amounts likely. This rain will exacerbate flooding issues on the ct
river and could cause some urban and poor drainage flooding as well.

As the mid level low moves overhead Sunday the swath of highest
pwats moves east and drier air moves overhead. Overall, Saturday
looks like more of a washout while Sunday showers become more
scattered, but clouds and rain are likely to stick around.

Strong 50-60 kt LLJ at 925mb previously mentioned will bring gusty
south southwest winds Friday night and Saturday, slowly tapering off
Saturday night as the jet moves offshore. Fortunately model
soundings indicate a profile inverted enough to keep the worst of
the winds aloft. Wind gusts of 35 mph are possible, with the best
chance for these or locally higher gusts being along the south coast
and in the high elevations of western ma ct.

Finally, this prolonged southerly flow will mean very mild
temperatures, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s
Saturday and Sunday. Most noticeable, though, will be the extremely
warm low temperatures, especially Friday night. An influx of 50-60f
dewpoints will keep lows from dropping out of the low 60s or upper
50s Friday night.

Minor coastal flooding may be an issue during the Friday night high
tide along the south coast, with prolonged strong southerly winds.

Impact seems low at the moment. See coastal flood section for
details.

Monday through Wednesday...

lower confidence in details for the first half of next week, but the
flow becomes more progressive and zonal behind our departing low.

The forecast continues to indicate a drying trend compared to the
weekend, but current runs of the ec want to spin up another coastal
low early Monday which would throw a wrench in the dry weather
plans, while the GFS builds in a high. Will stick with the more
consistent drier solution for now. Agreement is better that a cold
front moves through around Tuesday Tuesday night bringing another
brief shot of showers into Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

this afternoon... High confidence.

Dry low-level air is keeping cloud bases above 3000 feet. This
will continue until low level air moistens. Expect that to
happen with the passage of a warm front late this
afternoon evening.

Vfr early this afternoon, with MVFR CIGS developing during the
late afternoon evening. Scattered showers along the warm front
with brief MVFR vsbys possible. South winds will become gusty
with 20-25 kt gusts developing.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR ifr CIGS with areas of lifr and fog possible
along the south coast. Patchy drizzle. SW gusts to 25 kt
cape islands. Llws along the south coast and CAPE islands with
s SW winds around 50 kt at 2k ft.

Friday... Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR ifr with patchy light rain drizzle. SW gusts to
35 kt possible. Continued llws along the south coast and
cape islands with S SW winds 50-55 kt at 2k ft.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in trends with CIGS lowering to
MVFR ifr late today and tonight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in trends with CIGS lowering to
MVFR this afternoon and possibly ifr tonight.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

A low level jet will move over the waters this afternoon and
persist through Friday. S SE gusts to 25-30 kt developing this
afternoon then becoming SW tonight into Friday. Scattered to
widely scattered showers this afternoon. Vsbys become poor
tonight in developing fog and drizzle, slowly improving Friday.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tides coastal flooding
With the strong southerly winds aligned with astronomical high
tides due to the full moon late this week, there is a chance for
that a few locations along the south coast may see minor
coastal flooding around high tide tonight, but there is a
better chance for the Friday night high tide. Will monitor for
potential coastal flood headlines.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for anz231>235-237-
255-256.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
Friday for anz250-254.

Synopsis... Kjc bw
near term... Wtb kjc bw
short term... Kjc
long term... Bw
aviation... Wtb kjc bw
marine... Wtb kjc bw
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi39 min ESE 7 G 9.9 47°F 51°F1020.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi47 min E 16 G 18 46°F 1020.8 hPa43°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi39 min 49°F 47°F1019.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 27 mi45 min ESE 11 G 15 48°F 49°F1022 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 29 mi45 min ESE 13 G 17 47°F 43°F1021.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi72 min S 7 50°F 1023 hPa40°F
PRUR1 32 mi39 min 49°F 42°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi39 min SSE 7 G 12 49°F 1022.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi39 min SE 21 G 23 48°F 49°F1021.4 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi39 min SSE 19 G 24 50°F 1021.7 hPa42°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi41 min S 17 G 21 49°F 49°F1021.4 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi45 min 50°F 39°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi39 min SE 16 G 22 50°F 1022 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi39 min 50°F 51°F1022.4 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 47 mi57 min 45°F5 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi67 min SE 19 G 23 49°F 45°F6 ft1019.7 hPa (-1.9)44°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi64 minE 72.50 miLight Rain49°F44°F83%1021.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi61 minE 14 G 185.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F46°F100%1020.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI20 mi61 minSE 12 G 169.00 miLight Rain48°F42°F80%1021.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi63 minSE 7 mi49°F41°F74%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S12S11S10S8S7SE4S4S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E7E9E12E10E8SE8E12
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NW7NW6N6CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW6NW7N8S12S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island
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Westerly
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Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.80.1-0.3-0.20.51.42.32.93.12.92.41.71.10.4-0.1-0.10.41.42.43.13.53.42.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     -4.03 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM EDT     3.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:26 PM EDT     -3.88 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     3.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-3.4-4-3.6-2.4-0.71.32.83.53.32.40.9-1-2.8-3.8-3.7-2.7-1.20.72.53.63.62.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.