Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orangeville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:04AMMoonset 3:59PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 944 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms becoming likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees...off cleveland 73 degrees and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201708172015;;522350 FZUS51 KCLE 171344 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 944 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ146>149-172015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orangeville, OH
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location: 41.38, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 171535
afdpbz
area forecast discussion
national weather service pittsburgh pa
1135 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Rain is likely with a cold front later today and into Friday.

Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Still keeping an eye on two areas of rain. The first is across
central eastern ohio with scattered showers, while the second
remains with the cold front currently across eastern indiana.

The hrrr model continues to waver in its timing from run to run,
but still think that the first round of precipitation will enter
the area mid to late afternoon.

Previous discussion below...

the quasi-stationary boundary over southern ohio will be pushed
northward as a warm front this morning, by a rather vigorous
shortwave that will move across northern ohio, reaching
northwestern pennsylvania by early this afternoon. This will
eventually place the entire area well into the warm sector, and
pump up humidity levels. With the late morning wave, models are
keeping most of the activity to the north, closer to its path,
while south of this, convection looks to be more scattered or
isolated. There will be some limiting factors to storm
development and intensity that will need to be closely watched
today. The main one, at least through the afternoon, will be the
very warm air aloft, which will provide a cap on the
atmosphere. In addition, cloud cover associated with the morning
wave, will work to limit sunshine, and readings may fall short
of forecasted convective temperatures. If the cap is strong
enough, cloud cover could decrease as the afternoon progresses.

This will all need to be closely watched today.

By late this afternoon and into the early evening, the
aforementioned shortwave will be moving rapidly over north-
central pennsylvania. Another, weaker shortwave trough, will
move into my ohio counties by early evening. Models are
redeveloping convection ahead of this second wave, moving it
eastward during the remainder of the evening hours. At this
time, it appears the NAM is struggling with convective feedback,
due to an over amplification of the omega field and by trying
to develop a cool pool aloft with the wave, which does not seem
to be realistic. Additionally, the NAM may be overdoing the pwat
values for today, but I do think, with dewpoints pushing toward
or into the 70s, heavy downpours will be a concern. The good
news is that the pattern will be progressive, with forecasted
storm motion of 20 to 24kts, so individual cells should be
moving quickly.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
Shortwave trough will be east of the area shortly after
midnight. Once the large scale ascension moves east, and
diurnal stabilization overtakes the atmosphere, expect the
activity to not only move east, but also weaken. Will keep in
the risk for showers storms overnight, with the higher pops
drifting eastward with the exiting wave.

Lingering showers are possible Friday morning, although the
coverage is questionable, as the best lift will be well to the
northeast and well to the southwest of the region. It's likely
that models are filling showers in through the entire trough
axis, which would focus the activity over the southeastern
quadrant of the area. As afternoon approaches, the trough axis
will shift southeastward toward the mid-atlantic region, which
should bring an end to the risk of showers, save for the far
southeastern ridges.

The cold front will finally begin to cross the area late Friday
afternoon reaching northern west virgina by late evening. By
this time, the best lift will be southeast of the area as will
be the deep moisture. Because of this, have decided to leave
fropa dry, but this will likely need to be further investigated
in future model runs.

Cooler air will overspread the area Friday night and Saturday.

A strong shortwave trough will cross the region late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Have decided to go with slight to low
chance pops with this feature, as there will likely be another
surface boundary accompanying the upper level wave.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Broad high pressure will build across the region for the end of
the weekend into the beginning of the work week. A cold front
should then bring a chance of rain back to the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near average,
building into the middle of next week.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Warm front associated with northeastward tracking low pressure
will result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms today.

Latest hi res guidance has a few showers in the vicinity of zzv
by 10am but most of the activity appears to be much later. Kept
the mention of vcts late this afternoon at all terminals with
deteriorating conditions anticipated with the approach of a more
potent shortwave late.

Wind will be out of the SW under 10kts.

Outlook
Restrictions are likely through Fri morning as the cold front
crosses.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Wv... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 42 mi26 min SSW 16 G 22 82°F 1011.9 hPa (-2.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 43 mi46 min S 7 G 13 80°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 51 mi38 min S 15 G 17 83°F 1011.4 hPa71°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Youngstown, Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport, OH13 mi95 minS 910.00 miOvercast81°F70°F69%1014 hPa
Port Meadville Airport, PA22 mi33 minS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from YNG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW10N7N7NW4NE8N6NE4E4E4E4E5E6E6E5E7E7SE8SE8SE7S9S7S9S9
1 day ago3SW8SW6NW93NW9N11N6N3N6N5CalmCalmN4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4NW63
2 days agoSE3Calm3W4N6NE4NE5SW3S5S4S4S4S4S4S5S4SE4SE3SE3S4CalmSW76SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.