Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Orangeville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 9:59 PM EST (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:19PMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 918 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Overnight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees and off erie 48 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201811140915;;269030 FZUS51 KCLE 140218 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 918 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-140915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orangeville, OH
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location: 41.38, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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Fxus61 kpbz 140243
afdpbz
area forecast discussion
national weather service pittsburgh pa
943 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Dry but cold conditions will occur Wednesday with high
pressure. Low pressure will bring a wintry mix of precipitation
by Thursday.

Near term through Wednesday
Scattered light snow will be possible along and north of i80
overnight but with a still relatively warm boundary layer and
lack of moisture in the dendritic growth zone... Accumulation
will be minimal. Any snow will end by daybreak with increasing
subsidence. Dry weather is expected Wednesday as the surface
high crosses. Temperatures will remain below normal.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
Surface low pressure will ride across the tennessee valley
Wednesday night, occluding as it does so, accompanied by a
strong upper low crossing the mississippi by 12z Thursday. A new
surface low will then form off of the carolinas and ride the
coast northeastward into Friday.

Precipitation will reach areas near south of the mason-dixon
line by 12z, and overspread the region thereafter, with
categorical pops appropriate through Thursday night. There is
high confidence in a decent dose of qpf, given the high levels
of moisture and lift, the latter of which will be aided by right
entrance region jet dynamics. There are even hints of a brief
trowal-type setup, and possibly coupled jets with the lead
occluding system, which could fuel a strong burst of
precipitation.

The main uncertainties come with forecasting precipitation type.

Given high pressure centered over the northeast CONUS early on,
a cold air damming setup appears likely, keeping subfreezing air
up against east-facing ridges in southeast flow. The strength of
the warm layer aloft will be key. A period of freezing rain and
sleet seems likely, and there may actually be some fairly
significant sleet accumulations in some areas, as incomplete
melting from a weaker warm layer atop a subfreezing surface
layer would aid that development. At least some of the indicated
snow accumulation on Thursday may actually be in the form of
sleet. The best chance of significant freezing accumulation
will be along the ridges, where the warm layer may be a touch
stronger. All precipitation will change to snow during Thursday
night as the entire column finally cools below freezing, with
the ridges seeing the highest totals. Precipitation tapers off
Friday with the low pulling away from the coast.

Given all the uncertainties regarding snow ice sleet
accumulations, it is still a bit too early for headlines in most
cases. The exception is in garrett and eastern tucker counties.

Here, there is enough confidence in a significant combination of
snow and ice accumulations to post a winter storm watch for late
Wednesday night through Thursday night. It is possible that
neither snow nor ice will reach warning criteria, and an
advisory may be more appropriate here (and elsewhere), but the
threat is high enough to highlight. Cannot rule out a slight
expansion of this watch after the 00z model cycle.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
A cold front will cross the region Saturday into Saturday night,
with better forcing for precipitation occurring north of
pittsburgh. Another system crosses late Sunday into Monday, and
have increased pops going with a gefs ECMWF blend over the gfs.

Temperatures won't be extremely cold, but will still remain
below normal as they have for the last several days.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Scattered snow showers are possible across fkl and duj
overnight, which may drop restrictions briefly into MVFR.

Otherwise, expect clouds to slowly scatter out late tonight into
Wednesday morning withVFR conditions through the period. Winds
remain out of the wnw.

Outlook...

briefVFR conditions Wednesday before widespread restrictions
and potentially mixed precipitation including all precipitation
types will return Thursday with the next storm system.

Pbz watches warnings advisories
Md... Winter storm watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
morning for mdz001.

Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Wv... Winter storm watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
morning for wvz514.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 42 mi60 min WNW 23 G 28 35°F 1024.7 hPa (+2.0)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 51 mi42 min W 21 G 25 34°F 40°F1026.2 hPa23°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Youngstown, Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport, OH13 mi69 minW 910.00 miOvercast32°F21°F66%1026.3 hPa
Port Meadville Airport, PA22 mi67 minW 1010.00 miOvercast31°F23°F72%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from YNG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW5NW6NW7NW9W9NW11
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1 day agoS3S3S4S3SE4CalmSE4SE3SE3SE4E5S3E5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmNW6E3E4
2 days agoSW11SW11SW10SW8SW7SW8W5W4SW4CalmSW4SW7S7S9S7S66SW5CalmS4S4S3CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.