Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 3:58 PM   Moonset 2:57 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 351 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog through early afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 191742 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 142 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry weather and a warming trend is expected through early week, with a few near-record temperatures possible on Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through late in the week, with severe weather a possibility on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Save for an isolated shower on the ridges, dry weather and above- normal temperatures are expected.
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A mostly sunny sky will continue CWA-wide this afternoon under an upper ridge. Model cumulus rule favors the ridges/areas east of Pittsburgh for mainly scattered convective cloud development, and have shaded the grids in that direction. CAMs are still advertising isolated showers in the ridges, and this seems reasonable with expected elevation-aided convergence. Continued with a very small PoP to these areas. Afternoon high will climb into the low to mid 80s across much of the area this afternoon, around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

The overnight period will feature a mostly clear sky with light wind and above-normal temperature. NBM visibility probabilities are favoring portions of southwest PA and northern WV once again with patchy fog overnight. Will go along with this idea, but will keep a patchy mention as drying this afternoon should limit fog extent somewhat.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly dry weather is forecast through Tuesday night.
- Temperatures continue to climb to 10-15 degrees above normal, with a few record high values possibly approached on Tuesday.
_____________________________________________________________

Mostly dry weather is forecast for this period, as the upper ridge axis slowly trudges eastward and crosses the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. A couple of the CAMs try to develop some convection on a Lake-Erie induced boundary on Monday afternoon and drift it to the south. Not confident enough in such activity reaching the CWA given the weak flow under the ridge, but it is something to evaluate over the next couple of model runs.

Also, there is still a very weak shortwave in the model progs that rides up the back side of the departing ridge on Tuesday.
An isolated shower or storm north of I-80/along the NW periphery of our eastern Ohio counties cannot be ruled out, but again, a dry outcome seems most likely.

The bigger story during this period remains the well-above normal temperatures. Plenty of sun, a drying ground, and 850 mb temps climbing into the 14-16C range will contribute to highs reaching well into the 80s both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday may be the warmest day on an areawide basis. NBM probabilities of 90 degree or higher temperatures remain in the 30 to 50 percent range in river valleys and metro areas on that day. The May 21st record high at DuBois (86, from 2022) looks to be in greatest jeopardy. However, if the warmer end of guidance proves to be correct, other records at Pitt International (92, from 1911), Morgantown (92, from 1934) and New Philadelphia (91, from 1962)
could at least be approached.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return for Wednesday and Thursday, with some potential for strong thunderstorms.
- Near to just above seasonable temperatures and lower rain chances are expected Friday and into the weekend.
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Overall, model guidance still favors an upper low/trough in or near the northwestern Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon, with a followup shortwave trough crossing the Michigan area that night and getting absorbed into the larger trough. Minor strength and timing issues remain, but overall, the pattern still favors higher PoPs with the secondary shortwave, bridging the Wednesday night/Thursday period, which will likely also involve a cold frontal passage at the surface during the day on Thursday. Given the increased shear expected with the overall system, as well as the potential for decent instability in the warm and humid conditions ahead of the front Wednesday, the afternoon/evening period of that day appears to hold the best potential for severe weather. CIPS/CSU guidance, NBM-based CWASP progs, and SPC all seem to suggest this possibility, with areas west of Pittsburgh showing the best potential. This will of course be given increased scrutiny as we approach the midweek period. Temperatures will likely be muted a bit by the approaching clouds and rain Wednesday afternoon, especially west of Pittsburgh, but will still remain well above normal.

It appears that the Thursday night/Friday period will be relatively quiet with weak surface ridging indicated, along with temperatures closer to climatology. Model details become more unclear over the weekend, but with the possibility of weak shortwaves crossing the Middle/Upper Ohio Valley in WSW flow aloft, some lower-end PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range are necessary for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures may nudge up to a few degrees above normal.



AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Stubborn low level clouds keeping MVFR CIGs at DUJ into this afternoon have finally eroded returning all sites to VFR.
Satellite also reveals some diurnal cu development in line with the cu rule east of PIT where convective temperatures have been met. Light wind will continue into the evening before going variable to calm overnight with just a few cirrus. This will set up the stage for another night of possibly patchy fog primarily east of PIT.

Latest ensemble probability focuses 40-50% chance of MVFR VIS primarily for FKL/DUJ/LBE/MGW and is not as bullish as it was for Sunday morning fog, though both NBM and HRRR probs proved a bit too conservative for areas that did see fog. With a slightly drier setup tonight, kept restrictions at the aforementioned sites to MVFR in line with ensemble probabilities, though gridded guidance does indicate at least the potential for IFR after 09z, but this is lower confidence.

VFR and dry weather is expected Monday with high confidence under the influence of high pressure. Wind will again be light.

Outlook
VFR and dry weather continues Tuesday under high pressure.
Precipitation chances and associated restrictions return Wednesday with the passage of a cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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