Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 11:43 PM   Moonset 7:21 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202404271415;;450980 Fzus51 Kcle 270752 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 352 am edt Sat apr 27 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-271415- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 352 am edt Sat apr 27 2024
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 271816 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 216 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north through the area this morning. High pressure will build just off of the East Coast this weekend with an active storm track north and west of our region. A cold front will move across the area Monday night into Tuesday before dissipating.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Winds have been rather gusty this afternoon with a peak gust at FDY to 51 mph at 1206 PM and gusts to 43/42 mph at TOL/TDZ respectively. Will hold off on a wind advisory unless we get a few more reports. Mixing depths are near 4K feet but winds near 850mb should gradually decrease through the rest of the afternoon so think these stronger gusts should be uncommon and overall starting to decrease slowly. Otherwise we have seen a few showers develop but no additional thunderstorms as instability has been limited with only about 250 J/kg of ML CAPE and CIN still in place. Will hold onto low pops this afternoon as the CIN gradually erodes with skinny CAPE. Also raised high temperatures in NW and North Central Ohio by a degree or two.

Previous discussion... Much warmer weather is on the way this weekend. A warm front is currently lifting across the region this morning. As of 400 am looking at the dewpoint , the warm front was located across northwest Ohio stretching through central Ohio advancing northeastward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed in advance of the approaching warm front this morning. The coverage of rain chances should increase now through mid morning, especially over portions of NEOH and NWPA. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but no organized convection is expected with this front.

Temperatures and humidity will climb upwards later today thanks to that warm front with an airmass change. Most of the rain chances will exit northeastward by midday leaving the area mainly dry with only isolated rain chances through the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across NWPA and lower to middle 70s over NEOH. High temps will be approaching the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for northwest Ohio this afternoon. Skies will start out mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds by the afternoon expected.
Winds will become gusty from the south today 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

We will be on the top portion of an upper level ridge of high pressure located near the southeast U.S. An active storm track will remain just north and west of our region but close enough that we may some chances for scattered showers and storms to brush through our northern areas closer to the lakeshore and out over Lake Erie tonight into Sunday. Areas closer to central Ohio will have little to no rain chances for the rest of the weekend but areas further north closer to Lake Erie will have some chances through the end of the weekend. Tonight's low temperatures will be more like our average high temps for late April, in the lower to middle 60s.

A weak frontal boundary will drift southward across southern Ontario and Lower Michigan on Sunday. This frontal boundary may be close enough to develop a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across our northern zones closer to the lake on Sunday. Otherwise, we will should see a mix of sun and clouds with slightly humid conditions. High temps on Sunday will top out in the lower to middle 80s across northern Ohio and in the upper 70s in NWPA.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A strong upper ridge will build north from the southeastern United States and will allow the forecast area to be fully in the warm sector of an incoming low pressure system. The ridge strength will allow for the next system to be slower to reach the forecast area but a cold front will ultimately reach and move through the forecast area on Monday night into Tuesday, allowing for a window of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms and have categorical PoPs for all locations at some point during this period. Rain chances will decrease with the departure of the front on Tuesday night and have PoPs trending to dry. Temperatures on Monday will be warm for late April with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. Some record highs for a few climate sites are low and attainable in the low to mid 80s, so there will be a chance to reach those. Temperatures behind the front on Tuesday will fall into the 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Some brief upper level ridging and a surface high will be around the region to start on Wednesday and allow for a short dry period.
Energy from an upper trough over the the upper Midwest will extend toward the forecast area later on Wednesday and support a weak trough into the region, which will allow for some marginal rain chances. A shortwave over the central CONUS will develop a low pressure system on Thursday, which will advance toward the region for the end of the week, allowing for widespread chance PoPs for Thursday into Friday. Temperatures through the end of the week will continue to be on the warmer side of normal with a warm air advection continuing to pump warm, moist air from the south.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

A few areas of light showers are ongoing this afternoon but have not seen any additional thunderstorms given limited instability.
With that said, can not rule out a few thunderstorms but with a lack of forcing it is hard to tell when or where these may develop. Have included a tempo for showers at ERI until 20Z, then dry at all terminals through 00Z. Included vicinity showers at TOL/FDY between 06-12Z and also added some light showers to ERI on Sunday morning. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions outside of any thunderstorms.

South to southwest winds have been gusting between 30-40 knots at TOL/FDY with gusts closer to 30 knots at eastern sites. Winds should be peaking and will decrease considerably after 22Z.
Winds will be 8-12 knots tonight, then breezy again on Sunday with gusts to 20-25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front.

MARINE
High pressure to the east of the Great Lakes and a warm front extending north across Lake Erie this morning has allow for some stronger southeast winds to develop across the lake. Winds may lash at 20 kt or so through Noon but offshore flow should direct any building wave action away from the American nearshore waters and will continue without a Small Craft Advisory headline at this time.
On the back side of the warm front, southwest flow will be favored through Monday. A cold front will cross the lake on Monday night into Tuesday and winds will shift to the west. High pressure will briefly return Tuesday night into Wednesday and winds will come back around to the south.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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