Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Mystic, CT
May 7, 2024 8:16 PM EDT (00:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 5:05 AM Moonset 7:44 PM |
ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 703 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening, then patchy dense fog after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 9 seconds and E 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of showers. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat - NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun and Sun night - S winds around 10 kt, becoming sw. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 703 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres builds over the waters tonight. A warm front lifts toward the waters into early Wed. The warm front lifts through most of the waters by late Wed. The trailing cold front slides through Thu night. The front hangs around the southern waters as we head late into the week. A few lows may ride along the front as we head into the weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 071959 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 359 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving north of the area tomorrow. Another low pressure approaches along a frontal boundary south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across Sunday. Weak offshore high pressure establishes for early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
High pressure over the area will weaken and shift east tonight as a mid-level shortwave over the Great Lakes approaches from the west.
Much of the area should remain largely cloud free into the evening with cloud cover increasing through the night. Light onshore flow will aid in the moistening of the BL and prevent temperatures from dropping too low. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s regionwide where lower 50s are more likely for areas east and upper 50s to near 60 will be more likely for the NYC metro and surrounding areas.
A line of convection associated with the shortwave and developing over the Midwest/Ohio Valley tonight will begin to make its way into the area by late tonight and into the early morning on Wednesday.
This will result in overcast skies after midnight, as well as the increasing chance for showers with embedded thunderstorms moving into the area from west to east as early as 5AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The batch of convective debris from the remnants of upstream storms will continue to make its way through the area during the morning.
These showers and embedded storms will largely exit the area by mid to late morning, allowing for clearing into the afternoon for areas to the west. Clearing skies will allow for a rapid warming of the surface as strong heating takes over behind the departing showers. The timing and quickness of the clearing will depend on how far east the warmth will get. As of now, highs for the western areas like the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ, and the NYC metro will be in the middle 70s to middle 80s. A relatively sharp gradient in high temperatures will occur where eastern areas may only sees highs in the low to middle 60s.
As the shortwave approaches the area into the afternoon, heights fall as a weak trough moves overhead. Steepening lapse rates combined with the strong surface heating will allow for the development of moderate instability, generally 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, over much of the area by late afternoon. Despite the instability, a mid-level cap is expected to prohibit widespread storm development.
Forcing for ascent appears to be limited to closer to the shortwave up to the north. As such, kept coverage of showers and storms into the afternoon at slight chance to chance, with a better chance of seeing convection for areas further north and west.
If convection develops, storms may become strong to locally severe with the primary threats being damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms but threat diminishes in more stable and cooler air closer to the coast and further east where less surface heating takes place during the day and instability will be elevated as opposed to surface-based.
The chance for storms diminishes after sunset with the remainder of the overnight period being fairly dry, though a moist BL may allow for the development of low stratus and fog. Lows will once again be in the low 50s east to upper 50s west.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper levels exhibit active jet stream pattern across the region Thursday through Friday. Then the jet is positioned more to the south of the region for the weekend and into early next week.
Mid levels convey a southward moving wide trough that gets closer Thursday into Friday, bringing the area more positive vorticity advection in the process. The same pattern generally remains going through the weekend, with the trough moving farther east of the region early next week.
At the surface, low pressure approaches the region Thursday into Thursday night along a front south of the region. Model differences still present with progression of the surface low, some more recent model runs of NAM and GFS keeping low pressure west of the region by early Friday whereas ECMWF and Canadian keep low pressure farther east.
The low pressure center moves across Friday and then shifts farther east of the region for Friday night. High pressure then briefly builds in Saturday but will be quite transient, quickly giving way to another approaching low from the north and west Saturday night. The low moves in Sunday and Sunday night but will be of weak magnitude. Weak high pressure establishes offshore for early next week.
Rain showers are in the forecast much of the time Thursday through Friday night with the next main chance of rain showers Saturday night through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are forecast thereafter.
Some of the rain showers Thursday into Thursday evening could be moderate to possibly heavy. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night with cold pool aloft moving in with the upper level trough.
Forecast high temperatures near normal Thursday, more below normal Friday, and then near normal for the weekend. Potentially more above normal temperatures could occur for early next week. However, there is uncertainty.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front then lifts through overnight into Wednesday morning.
VFR thru this evening with sea breezes pushing inland. Wind speeds will generally be light with the exception of JFK where speeds will be closer to 10 kt.
The warm front approaches late tonight and conditions deteriorate to at least MVFR toward or just after 6Z Wed with low stratus, mist, and rain developing. IFR or lower possible, particularly after 9Z Wed. Gradual improvement late morning and return to MVFR to VFR by early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift this afternoon/evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of sub-VFR conds Wed AM may be off by a couple of hours.
IFR possible or lower possible toward 9Z Wed and thereafter.
Low chance of SHRA or TS Wed afternoon, too low to include in TAF at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Chance of showers or isolated tstm in the afternoon.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday night as seas will essentially average close to 3 ft.
Long term from Thursday through the weekend, sub-SCA conditions forecast much of the time. SCA seas on the ocean potentially for late Saturday night into Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Minor nuisance flooding possible with rain showers Thursday into Thursday evening. WPC contains much of the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next several days with a new moon tonight.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Thursday across coastal southern Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield counties with inundation up to a foot. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Wed and Thu evening's high tides, particularly in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau and Queens.
Elsewhere, localized minor flooding for this evening's high tide in coastal Westchester, Brookyln, and northern Nassau/Queens.
Inundation up to a half foot is possible. Additional minor flooding is possible thru Thursday evening.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178- 179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 359 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving north of the area tomorrow. Another low pressure approaches along a frontal boundary south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across Sunday. Weak offshore high pressure establishes for early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
High pressure over the area will weaken and shift east tonight as a mid-level shortwave over the Great Lakes approaches from the west.
Much of the area should remain largely cloud free into the evening with cloud cover increasing through the night. Light onshore flow will aid in the moistening of the BL and prevent temperatures from dropping too low. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s regionwide where lower 50s are more likely for areas east and upper 50s to near 60 will be more likely for the NYC metro and surrounding areas.
A line of convection associated with the shortwave and developing over the Midwest/Ohio Valley tonight will begin to make its way into the area by late tonight and into the early morning on Wednesday.
This will result in overcast skies after midnight, as well as the increasing chance for showers with embedded thunderstorms moving into the area from west to east as early as 5AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The batch of convective debris from the remnants of upstream storms will continue to make its way through the area during the morning.
These showers and embedded storms will largely exit the area by mid to late morning, allowing for clearing into the afternoon for areas to the west. Clearing skies will allow for a rapid warming of the surface as strong heating takes over behind the departing showers. The timing and quickness of the clearing will depend on how far east the warmth will get. As of now, highs for the western areas like the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ, and the NYC metro will be in the middle 70s to middle 80s. A relatively sharp gradient in high temperatures will occur where eastern areas may only sees highs in the low to middle 60s.
As the shortwave approaches the area into the afternoon, heights fall as a weak trough moves overhead. Steepening lapse rates combined with the strong surface heating will allow for the development of moderate instability, generally 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, over much of the area by late afternoon. Despite the instability, a mid-level cap is expected to prohibit widespread storm development.
Forcing for ascent appears to be limited to closer to the shortwave up to the north. As such, kept coverage of showers and storms into the afternoon at slight chance to chance, with a better chance of seeing convection for areas further north and west.
If convection develops, storms may become strong to locally severe with the primary threats being damaging wind gusts and hail. SPC has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms but threat diminishes in more stable and cooler air closer to the coast and further east where less surface heating takes place during the day and instability will be elevated as opposed to surface-based.
The chance for storms diminishes after sunset with the remainder of the overnight period being fairly dry, though a moist BL may allow for the development of low stratus and fog. Lows will once again be in the low 50s east to upper 50s west.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper levels exhibit active jet stream pattern across the region Thursday through Friday. Then the jet is positioned more to the south of the region for the weekend and into early next week.
Mid levels convey a southward moving wide trough that gets closer Thursday into Friday, bringing the area more positive vorticity advection in the process. The same pattern generally remains going through the weekend, with the trough moving farther east of the region early next week.
At the surface, low pressure approaches the region Thursday into Thursday night along a front south of the region. Model differences still present with progression of the surface low, some more recent model runs of NAM and GFS keeping low pressure west of the region by early Friday whereas ECMWF and Canadian keep low pressure farther east.
The low pressure center moves across Friday and then shifts farther east of the region for Friday night. High pressure then briefly builds in Saturday but will be quite transient, quickly giving way to another approaching low from the north and west Saturday night. The low moves in Sunday and Sunday night but will be of weak magnitude. Weak high pressure establishes offshore for early next week.
Rain showers are in the forecast much of the time Thursday through Friday night with the next main chance of rain showers Saturday night through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are forecast thereafter.
Some of the rain showers Thursday into Thursday evening could be moderate to possibly heavy. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night with cold pool aloft moving in with the upper level trough.
Forecast high temperatures near normal Thursday, more below normal Friday, and then near normal for the weekend. Potentially more above normal temperatures could occur for early next week. However, there is uncertainty.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front then lifts through overnight into Wednesday morning.
VFR thru this evening with sea breezes pushing inland. Wind speeds will generally be light with the exception of JFK where speeds will be closer to 10 kt.
The warm front approaches late tonight and conditions deteriorate to at least MVFR toward or just after 6Z Wed with low stratus, mist, and rain developing. IFR or lower possible, particularly after 9Z Wed. Gradual improvement late morning and return to MVFR to VFR by early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift this afternoon/evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of sub-VFR conds Wed AM may be off by a couple of hours.
IFR possible or lower possible toward 9Z Wed and thereafter.
Low chance of SHRA or TS Wed afternoon, too low to include in TAF at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Chance of showers or isolated tstm in the afternoon.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely and possibly a tstm, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Wednesday night as seas will essentially average close to 3 ft.
Long term from Thursday through the weekend, sub-SCA conditions forecast much of the time. SCA seas on the ocean potentially for late Saturday night into Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
Minor nuisance flooding possible with rain showers Thursday into Thursday evening. WPC contains much of the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday evening.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next several days with a new moon tonight.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Thursday across coastal southern Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield counties with inundation up to a foot. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Wed and Thu evening's high tides, particularly in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau and Queens.
Elsewhere, localized minor flooding for this evening's high tide in coastal Westchester, Brookyln, and northern Nassau/Queens.
Inundation up to a half foot is possible. Additional minor flooding is possible thru Thursday evening.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ178- 179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NLHC3 | 6 mi | 59 min | 62°F | 56°F | 29.70 | |||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 8 mi | 47 min | S 2.9G | 56°F | ||||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 24 mi | 59 min | 60°F | 51°F | 29.66 | |||
| QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 33 mi | 59 min | S 12G | 59°F | 29.70 | |||
| PDVR1 | 34 mi | 59 min | S 11G | 64°F | 29.68 | 54°F | ||
| NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI | 36 mi | 59 min | S 8G | 57°F | 54°F | 29.71 | ||
| NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI | 38 mi | 92 min | W 6 | 63°F | 29.68 | 53°F | ||
| PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI | 38 mi | 59 min | SSW 5.1G | 62°F | 29.71 | |||
| PRUR1 | 39 mi | 59 min | 58°F | 53°F | ||||
| CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI | 41 mi | 59 min | SE 15G | 58°F | 55°F | 29.69 | ||
| FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI | 42 mi | 59 min | SSE 13G | 63°F | 58°F | 29.69 | ||
| PVDR1 | 42 mi | 59 min | SSE 13G | 61°F | 29.70 | 56°F | ||
| FRXM3 | 47 mi | 59 min | 65°F | 52°F | ||||
| BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA | 48 mi | 59 min | S 5.1G | 65°F | 29.70 | |||
| FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA | 48 mi | 59 min | 66°F | 54°F | 29.72 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 6 sm | 20 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 54°F | 88% | 29.71 | |
| KWST WESTERLY STATE,RI | 10 sm | 23 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 52°F | 77% | 29.72 | |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 22 sm | 22 min | var 03 | -- | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.73 |
Noank
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EDT 2.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:26 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT 3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EDT 2.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:26 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT 3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.5 |
| 10 am |
| 2.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 3 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:11 AM EDT -4.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT 3.43 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT -3.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT 3.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:11 AM EDT -4.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:05 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT 3.43 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT -3.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT 3.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:50 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.8 |
| 1 am |
| -3.4 |
| 2 am |
| -4.1 |
| 3 am |
| -3.8 |
| 4 am |
| -2.7 |
| 5 am |
| -1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 2.5 |
| 8 am |
| 3.4 |
| 9 am |
| 3.3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.4 |
| 2 pm |
| -3.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -3.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -2.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Boston, MA,
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