Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mystic, CT

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Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:42PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:06 AM EDT (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:54PMMoonset 12:15AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers, mainly this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A front will remain stalled south of new england through tonight. Weak waves of low pres will move along it, bringing scattered showers and patchy fog, especially across the southern waters. Gusty ne winds up to around 25 kt through tonight. High pres will build across the waters late tonight and Tue. Low pres with its associated fronts will approach on Wed, then push offshore Wed night. Dry high pres will build in from the W on Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mystic, CT
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location: 41.39, -71.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191132
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
732 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front south of long island will continue to slowly sink
into the mid atlantic region today as a wave of low pressure
travels along it. A high pressure ridge will extend southwest
from new england Monday into Tuesday while weak low pressure
passes to the south. A cold front will move across on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure to close the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Frontal boundary has pushed into southern nj early this morning
and will continue into the mid atlantic region this morning as a
weak wave of low pres tracks along it. Meanwhile, an upper
trough will track through the northeast.

Coverage of showers is slightly more than expected this morning,
so have increased pops a bit. Hi res guidance remains split on
whether this becomes more widespread later today and thus
remains the most uncertain part of the forecast. While it makes
sense that southern portions of the forecast area have a
greater potential, think the widespread nature is overdone.

A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out this morning, but by aftn
there really is minimal instability (including elevated
instability) for TSTM activity. Thus, it has not been included
in the forecast. If there was any convection, heavy rain and
potential flooding would be a concern with pw's around 1.75
inches and a weak steering flow, but am not really seeing a
potential for this. Moderate showers are possible, but do not
anticipate flooding with these.

Otherwise, a cloudy and much cooler day under a NE flow. Highs
are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s, but they may need to
be knocked down 1-2 degrees.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
The upper trough will be slow to depart the northeast tonight
and Monday due to downstream ridging. Thus have maintained low
pops tonight through Mon morning. By Mon aftn, the trough should
be far enough east with enough subsidence from a ridge of high
pres extending through new england to keep conds dry. Waves of
low pres will continue to pass to the south through Mon night,
but are expected to be far enough south to not impact the local
area.

A frontal system will then approach the area on Tuesday with
increasing chances for rain returning during the aftn.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development on Monday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
With the approach passage of a more significant upper trough
and associated cold front Tue night into wed, will see likely
pop late Tue night and possibly into Wed morning. See hydrology
section for further details, as there could be some urban and
flash flood potential, impacting the Wed am rush if current
model timing holds.

With mid level confluence behind this departing trough on Thu and
then ridging aloft Fri into sat, sfc high pressure should then
follow, with a noticeably drier air mass moving in on Thu with
dewpoints in the 50s and remaining into Saturday.

Except for Tue night Wed when temps may be a few deg above avg,
expect temps right near seasonal averages.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
A frontal boundary will remain south of the terminals. NE flow will
continue across the area through the TAF period.

MVFR cigs, generally between 1-2kft expected through much of
the TAF period. There may be some slight improvement this
afternoon, but still expecting CIGS to remain MVFR. Kswf has the
best chance for conditions to improve toVFR this afternoon.

There may be a few spots that fall to ifr CIGS tonight.

There may also be some gusts into the upper teens to near 20kt
on the NE flow, mainly for the nyc terminals and points east.

Tricky forecast with respect to precipitation. Some light rain
and drizzle remain across some of the terminals this morning,
and will carry a tempo til 16z. Otherwise, showers will be
possible at just about any time today, but confidence on timing
and placement of any precipitation too low to keep in the tafs.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Mon-tue Improvement toVFR on Monday, remainingVFR through
Tuesday.

Tue night-wed Chance of shower TSTM with MVFR conditions.

Thu Vfr.

Marine
Have added W LI sound to the SCA today with NE gusts of 25 and
30 kt being reported. Otherwise, a tight gradient will result in
sca conditions on the ocean waters, E LI sound, and peconic and
gardiners bays today and continue into Monday. Marginal sca
wind gusts are likely for the remainder of near shore waters.

Then, sub-sca conditions are expected for all the forecast waters
early into the middle of next week. Ocean seas could reach sca
criteria again Wednesday night into Thursday.

Ocean seas out east may build to SCA levels of at least 5 ft on wed
ahead of an approaching cold front. These elevated seas may linger
into Wed night.

Hydrology
Minor nuisance flooding is possible with any prolonged moderate
showers today. Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected
through tue.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Showers tstms with heavy rain
may be possible with a passing frontal system. With low areal
ffg especially over NE nj, pw increasing to well over 2 inches,
and deep layer SW flow indicative of potential training of
cells, there is some urban and flash flood potential in this
time frame from nyc north west.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for anz330-340.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz335.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Monday for anz350-353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 6 mi37 min NE 2.9 G 8 68°F 71°F1014.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 8 mi42 min NE 8.9 G 12 67°F 1008.5 hPa63°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi37 min 67°F 74°F1014.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 33 mi43 min NE 19 G 23 69°F 76°F1015 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi43 min NNE 11 G 17 68°F 69°F1015 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 38 mi82 min ENE 14 69°F 1015 hPa65°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 38 mi43 min ENE 11 G 16 69°F 1015.3 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 40 mi37 min NE 16 G 19 68°F 75°F2 ft
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 41 mi43 min NE 13 G 20 69°F 77°F1015.5 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi37 min NE 14 G 21 70°F 1015.9 hPa61°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi43 min ENE 14 G 17 69°F 75°F1014.7 hPa
FRXM3 47 mi37 min 68°F 62°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 48 mi37 min NE 14 G 18 69°F 1015.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 48 mi43 min 69°F 80°F1015.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi77 min 69°F 74°F6 ft1013.2 hPa (+1.9)66°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT6 mi71 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast67°F63°F87%1014.2 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI10 mi74 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast67°F64°F93%1014.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi73 minNE 9 mi67°F64°F91%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW6SW7SW9SW13SW9SW8SW9W10SW8W6W4W4W3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3S3S5

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:57 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:44 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.51.8221.91.71.410.70.50.81.21.72.12.52.62.52.31.91.510.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:42 AM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:50 PM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:17 PM EDT     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.90.31.4221.60.9-0.2-1.4-2.1-2.3-1.8-10.11.222.21.91.30.3-1-2.1-2.6-2.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.