Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 12:33 PM   Moonset 1:39 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 545 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of light rain and drizzle this evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 545 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure will continue moving south and east of long island tonight. High pressure will build in from northern new england late tonight through Friday night. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, with weak low pressure passing to the south this weekend. A cold front could move through the area late next week.

FXUS61 KBGM 170007 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 807 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few isolated afternoon rain showers this afternoon but most will stay dry. Calm and quiet weather under high pressure will be present tonight through tomorrow morning. Unsettled conditions return Friday afternoon as another area of low pressure moves in from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

730 PM Update...
Forecast remains mostly on track, made minor changes to cloud cover based on latest satellite and observations.

245 PM Update...
High level cloud clearing earlier today has allowed the sun to heat the surface and allow some isolated rain showers to develop this afternoon, mostly east of I-81. Most of these showers are not reaching the ground, but a few stronger showers are getting some rain/drizzle to the surface. This tracks given the dewpoint depression across much of the region is about 15-20 degrees.
These showers will continue to stream from east to west across the area this afternoon, directed by a low pressure system off NJ that is pushing ENE flow across the region. Showers will dissipate later this evening when we loose the surface heating from the sun.

High pressure will build into the region tonight. With the low spinning off the coast, the question is how much clearing may we get with the suppression from the high battling the moisture and cloud influx from the low. If we can see a few hours of clearing, fog development will be possible again in the morning.
Guidance is somewhat all over the place with cloud cover, so confidence is not very high on fog formation late tonight into the morning hours. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s across much of the region. Upper 40s will be present in the higher elevations of t he Catskills.

Friday will start off wonderfully with partly cloudy skies and temps climbing into the low 70s by noon. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the afternoon, bringing rain showers and a slight chance of a rumble of thunder to the Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers into the evening. The timing of the showers and how far east they will migrate is still a little up in the air as the approaching low and associated rain will have to fight dry air in place over the region. Steady showers should be in the area by late afternoon, spreading SW to NE through the overnight hours as the surface low lifts to the NNE. Showers should lighten up and become more scattered by daybreak. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, with up to 0.15in expected. Highest amounts should be in the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be warm thanks to continuous southerly flow, remaining in the upper 50s across much of the region. Higher elevations of the Catskills will fall into the low 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
258 PM Update...

A shortwave trough will be departing the area early Saturday morning. A broad upper low will move from the Ohio Valley into Virginia and the Carolinas through the weekend, while a lopsided ridge noses into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Still, some weak instability will lead to widely scattered/disorganized and light showers developing Saturday afternoon, with a slight chance again on Sunday. Similar conditions will persist into Monday. High temperatures will slowly climb each day through the 70s, with a few valley locales approaching 80 on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
258 PM Update...

A weak shortwave trough will approach the are with showers mostly dissipating Tuesday night. Southerly flow will bring warm/moist air back into the region Wednesday, ahead of a second disturbance and associated cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
There are still some timing issues to work out in the extended part of the forecast, with ensembles suggesting shower chances will linger past Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions persist at most terminals tonight with high pressure building in. Some clearing is expected but there is uncertainty on whether we will get enough clearing to allow river valley fog to develop. Guidance hints at fog developing at ELM/BGM for a brief period. Given the lack of confidence in this, a TEMPO period was used for IFR conditions from 8-12z.

A marine layer may sneak in to AVP late tonight bringing a chance of MVFR restrictions. Otherwise once possible restrictions lift VFR conditions will be expected for the remaining period at all terminals.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Newburgh
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Thu -- 01:37 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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Thu -- 01:14 AM EDT     0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:50 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
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West Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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