Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chester Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:55 AM EDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:03PMMoonset 2:30AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 554 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..W winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers with isolated tstms early. Patchy fog this morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 554 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front moves across the forecast waters early this morning as a low moves east of the canadian maritimes through today. Meanwhile, high pressure will build into the region through Thursday, then remain through Saturday. Another frontal system will impact the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester Center, CT
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location: 41.45, -72.46     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231000
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
600 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will move south and east of long island early
this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will build toward the
region through Thursday, then remain through Saturday. Another
frontal system will impact the area early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Updated as cold front is a little slower to move toward the
southeast. Kept probabilities across the eastern zones until
14z. And delayed clearing by a couple of hours.

The cold front was a little slower to move southeast, and was
moving into the lower hudson valley at 10z. A warm front remains
south of the region, across southeastern pennsylvania into
southern new jersey. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
to move across the area, and are expected to exit by 14z as the
cold front moves east. Elevated instability, and mucape,
increase to 200 to 400 j kg of CAPE across the region, so will
continue to mention isolated thunder. Patchy fog remains across
the area as well, with light winds and a saturated boundary
layer.

A northern stream trough will remain across eastern canada and
into the northeast once the cold front passes. Clearing will
take place late this morning through the afternoon as the trough
begins to move slowly east, with slowly rising heights.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
A trough continues to exit the northeast as heights rise across
the region tonight as a strong ridge from the gulf of mexico to
the southern central canadian plains shifts east. The ridge axis
builds toward the area Thursday with a surface high over the
region. A dry NW flow will continue tonight through Thursday.

Despite plenty of incoming solar radiation Thursday,
temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than Wednesday
as the NW flow brings in a cooler and drier airmass from central
canada.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Vortexes over the labrador sea and northern greenland, and an
upper level trough moving into south central canada at the start
of the period will result in the flattening of the upper level
ridge extending from the upper midwest as it shifts eastward
into sat. This will result in a continuation of the warm and
increasingly humid weather through the first half of the
weekend. Fri will be a bit breezy as the pressure gradient
tightens between low pres to the north and high pres sliding off
the mid atlantic coast. Sat will be the hottest and most humid
day with an established SW flow as a result of the offshore high
remaining anchored over the western atlantic. Temps are
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s under a sunny sky across
much of the local area, possibly even hit the 90 degree mark in
some locations of metro ny nj. The southerly flow off the cooler
waters will result in highs 5-10 degrees cooler along the south
shore of long island and coastal ct.

A cold front will be dropping down from the north on Sat and
while the upper level dynamics appear to remain well to the
north during peak heating, there is the possibility of a few
airmass tstms during the aftn and early eve. A trigger will be
needed and any thermal trough or seabreeze boundary would
suffice. The GFS appears to be overdone with its pcpn field sat
night as sheared energy tracks towards the region from the west
and the front to the north continues to sag southward. Have
maintained schc pops Sat night with the boundary moving into the
local area if not passing through completely by Sun morning.

Global models start to diverge significantly on the details
through the remainder of the period, although the general signal
is for unsettled weather Sun and Mon with the boundary
remaining nearby and a series of shortwaves passing through.

Timing of pcpn will need to be refined in later forecasts once a
there is better agreement.

Another cold front approaches from the west early next week,
although timing is once again in question.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front moves across the area after 12z.

Widespread ifr conditions due to mainly low ceilings will
prevail ahead of the cold front. Isolated showers possible the
next couple of hours. Conditions improve toVFR shortly after
frontal passage.

Light and variable winds for much of the overnight will veer
around to the W SW at 5 kt or less toward daybreak. After the
cold frontal passage, winds turn to the NW and increase to
around 10 kt. A few gusts into the teens will be possible this
afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 21 mi37 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 50°F1012.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 23 mi45 min WSW 6 G 7 54°F 1017.1 hPa53°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 24 mi55 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 55°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 26 mi37 min WSW 1 G 1.9 56°F 58°F1012.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 38 mi37 min 55°F 54°F1012.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi43 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 56°F1011.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT5 mi80 minno data6.00 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1012.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT20 mi62 minS 55.00 miFog/Mist56°F55°F97%1012.2 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT22 mi62 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F96%1012 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi2.1 hrsVar 42.50 miRain Fog/Mist54°F54°F100%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW4S55S9S7S4--CalmCalmSE3S4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmCalm3
1 day ago----N9N6
G12
4NE6Calm6
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SW66S5S5SW633SW6CalmCalm--CalmCalm
2 days agoSW9SW6
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45SW10
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NW8NW6NW6NW6NW8NW86
G12
NW7NW4NW4N4NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tylerville, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tylerville
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.50.30.61.21.92.42.72.82.62.21.81.20.50.10.20.71.52.22.732.92.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Higganum Creek, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Higganum Creek
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Wed -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:13 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.80.40.30.71.31.92.32.52.42.21.91.40.90.40.10.20.81.52.22.62.72.52.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.