Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Middle, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 24, 2018 5:39 PM EDT (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 3:09AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 436 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 436 Pm Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front lingering over the eastern waters into this evening will gradually dissipate overnight as high pressure otherwise dominates. Another back door cold front will pass through Saturday night into Sunday morning, becoming nearly stationary just to the south through memorial day. Another cold front will follow from the west on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Middletown city, NY
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location: 41.45, -74.44     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 242121
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
521 pm edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
A back door cold front lingering southeast connecticut and
eastern long island will gradually dissipate overnight as high
pressure otherwise dominates. A weak low pressure trough will
develop over western portions of the region on Saturday. Another
back door cold front will pass through Saturday night into
Sunday morning, becoming nearly stationary just to the south and
west through memorial day. Another cold front will follow from
the west on Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Fog low cloud bank over SE coastal ct and along the south fork
of long island on the cool side of the back door front should
spread gradually north and west into this evening with the aid
of onshore flow and late day evening cooling, then dissipate
overnight as SW flow strengthens. Before then, the fog may
become locally dense right along shorelines.

Lows tonight will be in the lower mid 60s in near nyc, with 50s
elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
A flat upper ridge will dominate aloft, with offshore sfc high
pressure and a week inland trough. With h8 temps increasing to
near 15c and h5-10 thicknesses near 570 dm, expect a very warm
day, with highs reaching 90 in NE nj and in the valleys well nw
of nyc, with mid upper 80s elsewhere away from south facing
shores. With a very dry air mass in place, heat index values
will actually be several deg lower than air temps.

Lows Fri night should be near 70 in nyc and in the 60s
elsewhere.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A polar low over greenland and associated trough across SE canada
will slowly slide east through the weekend, while bermuda ridging
builds off the SE coast. The local region will be in between these
two features, with broad but weak northern stream shortwave energy
over the us canadian plains gradually sliding shearing east towards
the NE us through the weekend, as well as vort energy rotating
around the bermuda ridge.

At the surface, lee trough development is expected on Saturday. A
modestly unstable and sheared environment, with increasing vort
energy in the mid level flow, should lend to afternoon
shower thunderstorm development west of the hudson river. Main
threat will be torrential downpours in increasingly moist airmass,
but can't rule out a few strong to severe storms in this regime as
well. Question is timing of trigger. Any convective shower activity
should slide eastward through the late afternoon evening but weaken
overnight with diminishing instability and maritime influence.

Temperatures should be quite warm on Saturday with increasing
humidity as well. Highs should be well into the 80s away from the
south coasts, and upper 70s to around 80 at the coast.

Then decent agreement on a backdoor cold front approaching Sat eve
and then pressing across the region Saturday night into Sunday
morning. The front, interacting with the sub-tropical environment in
place, should increase the coverage of shower activity Sat night
into Sun morning, but thunderstorm activity should decrease after
the evening hours as instability diminishes. Locally heavy downpours
are the main threat in this environment.

The region will then transition to a cooler canadian maritime
airmass on Sunday into Monday, as high pressure builds southward
across new england. Subsidence and stable airmass may keep
shower sprinkle activity rather limited by Sun afternoon and
continuing through Monday, but stratus will likely hang tough Sunday
into at least Monday morning with low-level inversion. Potential for
some breaks of Sun heading into Monday afternoon as
northern southern stream trough energy begins to slide east.

Fairly good agreement on next northern stream shortwave amplifying
into quebec Monday night into Tuesday, with ridging beginning to
build into the region through midweek. At the surface, a cold front
crosses the region Tuesday morning with canadian high pressure
building into the region in its wake. Forcing appears limited with
this frontal passage, but some uncertainty on instability, which
warrants a low chance for isolated shra tsra. Otherwise, appears high
pressure builds into the region for midweek with dry and near to
above seasonable temps.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
A weak back door cold front will linger across eastern long
island and southeast connecticut into this evening. Otherwise,
high pressure dominates through Friday.

MainlyVFR conditions through the TAF period. The only exception
is lifr or ifr conditions in stratus and fog across southeast
connecticut and the forks of long island. There is a low chance
that it spreads near kbdr and kisp this evening. Will continue
to monitor trends.

Ssw-s winds around 10 kt into this evening at most terminals
except inland where winds may remain light nw. Winds will
diminish this evening and become light and variable outside of
city terminals.

Sw winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt Friday
morning into Friday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 47 mi69 min Calm G 1 80°F 65°F40°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 48 mi129 min 82°F 1018 hPa46°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 56 mi69 min 78°F 60°F1019.4 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY10 mi45 minESE 310.00 miFair82°F48°F32%1017.2 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY18 mi54 minVar 320.00 miClear82°F48°F30%1018.6 hPa
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ19 mi46 minN 010.00 miFair84°F44°F25%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from MGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
G15
NW7W3W6CalmCalmW5CalmS6W3NW8CalmS3CalmW3N3Calm3E5E4E6SE35SE3
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmS4S4S5SW3SW3SW8SW8SW4S4S5S4SW4W4NE7NE65NE95SE55NW9
2 days agoS3S5CalmS7CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW3SW4E3CalmNE3CalmS6S6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 02:54 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:15 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.510.50.30.61.322.62.92.92.62.11.510.400.10.71.62.32.93.23.12.7

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Hudson River, New York
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West Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:30 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:06 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:58 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.30.40.81.41.92.22.42.31.91.510.60.200.30.91.52.12.52.62.42

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.