Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:07 AM   Moonset 3:06 PM

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FXUS61 KBGM 041649 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1249 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Updated pops and sky cover a bit with the mid morning and noontime updates, forecast discussion below on track.

630 am update...

Increased pops in the southern tier and Bradford county where rain has moved into the area for now. Cameras show the road is wet. Light rain/sprinkles coming out of a 10k deck. Increased cloud cover since it is cloudy everywhere. There could be some breaks still midday after the rain retreats back south for a few hours.

330 am update...

A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period.

With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
342 AM Update...
Showers associated with an upper level disturbance will be exiting the area Sunday night, with the best shower chances lingering back across the Catskills and Poconos. However, a weakening cold front will remain to our west, and this will keep a small chance of rain showers in the picture through the night, although upper level support will be lacking.

The front itself will weaken into a surface trough and drag itself across the area on Monday and more or less dissipate as it reaches the coast. A few pop-up showers will be possible across NE PA as the trough slowly drifts through the area Monday afternoon. Temperatures will recover significantly from Sunday, with highs expected in the upper-60s to lower-70s across the area.

High pressure will build in Monday night, with ideal conditions for radiational cooling dropping temps into the lower to middle 40s across the area, with 50s hanging on in the Wyoming Valley.

Weak upper level ridging will make for fair weather on Tuesday, with highs climbing a few more degrees, into the middle to upper-70s.
Some moisture riding well ahead of the next system will try to sneak in from the south, but shower chances look to stay out of the area until Tuesday night when a developing warm front drifts north across the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
342 AM Update...

Low pressure over eastern Ontario will push a cold front through the area on Wednesday. The warm sector with this system looks rather narrow, with not much time between the overnight warm frontal passage and the cold fropa. As a result, instability will be weak, though a few thunderstorms will still be possible. The back half of Wednesday may end up fairly dry as precip may push east of the area early in the afternoon.

The remainder of the period looks unsettled, as a positively tilted trough hangs back across Quebec and into the Great Lakes, keeping SW flow aloft in place across the Northeastern CONUS. A series of upper level disturbances, and an active jet stream to our north will keep periods of rain in the forecast, though the details are rather unclear. Leaned heavily on the NBM from Thursday onwards.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR this evening with showers developing. Then IFR expected for most of the overnight through the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southerly winds fairly consistent around 10 knots through the TAF period.
However, occasional gusts of 15-20 knots can not be ruled out.
Marginal LLWS can not be ruled out from 06-15Z Sunday but data shows this as a lower chance of occurring at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night... Showers ending with ceilings lifting some in the afternoon then lowering again Sunday night.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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