Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Noxen, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 3:12 AM EST (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:10PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noxen, PA
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location: 41.46, -76     debug

Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 200809
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
309 am est Wed feb 20 2019

High pressure and quiet weather will settle in tonight with
frigid temperatures in the single digits and teens. Another
winter system will bring light snow and ice to the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with light rain into Thursday.

Quiet weather returns Friday into Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
1000 pm update...

still wrestling with areas of renegade radiational cooling in
parts of cny where skies have remained nearly clear this evening
allowing temperatures to tumble into the single digits. High
clouds moving in through the night should help to stop the free
fall, and weak warm advection may even cause some rebound by
morning. Blended the latest mesoscale guidance with manual edits
to try and get the numbers in the ballpark. Single digits and
teens for the overnight minimums. Otherwise, a quiet rest of the
night under high pressure before the mixed bag system arrives
later tomorrow morning.

No changes to snow, or ice amounts for tomorrow and onset timing
still looks reasonable.

Previous discussion...

a winter weather advisory has been issued for the entire area
for mixed precipitation Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snow
amounts range from a dusting to 4 inches in the far south. The
advisory more for the freezing rain which will occur everywhere.

Amounts up to around a tenth of an inch.

Precipitation comes in from the southwest in the form of snow.

The initial shot of snow is heaviest in the far south where the
best lift and forcing is. Snowfall rates could approach an inch
an hour in luzerne county for an hour or two.

With the fast southwest flow at all levels warm air comes in at
low and mid levels late in the day. This will cause the snow to
mix with sleet then change to freezing rain. Freezing rain will
occur everywhere for a few hours Wednesday night. This will end
from west to east as surface temperatures rise above freezing
starting around midnight. At the same time precipitation will be
ending. Total liquid amounts around a quarter inch in cny and
half an inch for the far south including avp.

A departing low pressure system will pull a frontal system
through eastern ny Thursday morning. A few light showers,
possibly mixed with freezing drizzle, will come to an end over
the western catskills by mid-morning. By late-afternoon, a weak
band of lake effect snow showers is expected to form over the
northern forecast area. Little snow accumulation is expected
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
310 am update...

fairly benign period expected in the short term with little if
any precipitation behind the front Thursday night, then a
gradual breakup of stratocumulus Friday into Friday night.

Weak cold air advection will continue Thursday night along with
west-northwest flow. The moisture that will exist will be quite
shallow; confined to a sharp inversion around or below the 800mb
level. While it appears that there will likely be stratocumulus
for most of the area, the depth of the moisture will make
precipitation hard to come by. The top of the layer reaches to
about minus 10 celsius Thursday evening, which should prevent
drizzle freezing drizzle by then. However, a few scant flurries
cannot be ruled out in central ny north of cortland-norwich and
mostly east of syracuse. With the clouds, temperatures will be
prevented from dropping any lower than 20s for lows.

Stratocumulus layer will thin with time of Friday, and as usual
it will linger longest in north central new york while others
will start getting into more sunshine especially in afternoon.

High pressure will pass across the region Friday afternoon-
evening, then just east by dawn Saturday. Highs of mid 30s-lower
40s Friday, will be followed by lows of upper teens-mid 20s
Friday night thanks to a mostly clear sky allowing for
radiational cooling.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
310 am update...

main concern in the long term period, is the increasing signal
for a possible wind event as a deepening low pressure system
passes through the region Sunday into Monday. Also, the same
system will bring varying types of precipitation ahead of,
during, and behind the system.

A low pressure center is projected to exit the central plains
Saturday, which then rapidly deepens Saturday night into Sunday
while moving through the western great lakes into ontario-
quebec. To differing degrees, yet with the same general idea,
the ECMWF canadian and especially GFS models have this occur as
southern stream and northern stream upper waves phase with each
other while lifting northeastward. Based on local studies there
are several parameters meeting thresholds of past stronger wind
events including 925-850mb winds exceeding 50 knots, low level
lapse rates in excess of 8 deg c km, as well as a strong
pressure rise-fall couplet in terms of 6 hour pressure change.

While zone of strongest winds and pressure rises appears to
translate from western to northern ny and especially into
canada, areawide it appears that it will get quite gusty Sunday
through Sunday night and perhaps into Monday as well. If a
verbatim GFS solution were to pan out, damaging gusts are not
out the question especially from the finger lakes to mohawk
valley areas but perhaps further south too. Sometimes the
magnitude of a potential wind event looks high several days
out, only to diminish as it gets closer. For now though, we will
be adding mention of this potential to our local hazardous
weather outlook for northern parts of our area to raise
awareness, where potential is higher, and we will otherwise
continue to monitor trends in coming days.

Besides wind, the other impacts of this system of course will
involve precipitation. Strong warm air advection will occur
especially later Saturday into Sunday. As increasing moisture
and lift occur on the front side of the system, a shield of
precipitation will lift south to north across the area later
Saturday through especially Saturday night. It is not totally
impossible that a brief wintry mix could occur, especially
higher terrain east of i-81, but overall it appears strength of
warm air advection as well as relatively limited cold air
damming in the low levels will make rain the predominant
precipitation type. Temperatures will surge into Sunday with
highs of at least upper 40s-lower 50s expected.

Blast of cold air advection and gusty winds will then occur
later Sunday through Monday. What is left of rain showers will
change back to snow showers Sunday night. Some accumulating
lake snows could occur into Monday in parts of central new york
with gusty cyclonic flow on the back side of the system with
potential to pick up great lakes moisture from well upstream.

Then, brief ridging by Monday night into Tuesday appears to
yield a temporary respite of quiet weather.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
An area of snow will move in after 15z from southwest to
northeast and eventually change to a snow sleet mix for period
after 21z, and then mix in some freezing rain after 02z
Thursday. Expect ifr visibilities between 3 4sm and 2sm in
moderate snow with ceilings between 1000 and 2000 feet. Vsbys
will improve with the transition to a wintry mix... With cigs
remaining in the fuel alternate required to low-end MVFR range.

A strong S SW low level jet around 40-50 kt will induce some
llws across the area after 00z Thursday.


Wednesday night through Thursday... MVFR ifr restrictions likely
as the snow and sleet transition to rain around sunrise
Thursday morning. Rain showers continue Thursday with brief
isolated restrictions possible. Light lake effect rain and
eventually snow showers at krme may reduce vsbys and CIGS as
well Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Saturday night through Sunday... Restrictions likely in mixed

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est
Thursday for paz038>040-043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-

Synopsis... Tac
near term... Djp jab tac
short term... Mdp
long term... Mdp
aviation... Bjt djp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA17 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair21°F10°F65%1035.8 hPa

Wind History from AVP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW7NW7NW5N9N9
1 day agoCalmW3CalmS4SW4SW8SW7SW9NW9NW18
2 days agoNE4N3NE3CalmE3NE7N7NW5W53W55S5S5S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.