Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Laporte, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 1:58 PM EST (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:02AMMoonset 4:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte , PA
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location: 41.46, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 161526
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1026 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A prolonged period of overcast skies with light snow will occur
today into early wendesday as a slow moving frontal boundary
edges east across the region. A few weak upper-level
disturbances will ripple northeast along this boundary,
possibly bringing periods of briefly heavier snowfall. A few to
several inches of snow will fall over the upcoming 24 to 30
hours.

A deep upper level trough will swing through the area later
Wednesday, then be replaced by a building east coast ridge next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Light overrunning snowfall associated with weakening alberta
clipper extends from the pocono plateau to the ridge and valley
region of central pa late this morning. Postive tilt trough
extending southwest from the great lakes region will help to
form a weak secondary low that will track from the southern
appalachians to the mid atlantic coast.

Upstream regional radar mosiac showing the anticipated return
enhancement as favorable right entrance region of 130+ kt jet
begins to move over south central pa. Light to moderate snow
will become more widespread as the afternoon wears on over
advisory areas, and earlier expansion of winter weather
advisories covers this well. Very far southern york lancaster
counties will see the onset of snowfall delayed from the rest of
my area, perhaps until late this afternoon.

Model blend of 0.20-0.30 of an inch of liq equiv across the
central ridge and valley region with similar clustering (though
slightly bi- modal with higher amounts of almost half sref
members into the 0.4-0.5 inch range) over the susq valley and
points to the east. These liq equivalent values and a 12-14:1
snow water ratio equates to a general 3 or inches from the
laurel highlands northeast through kunv and kipt and kthv kmdt.

The higher terrain to the east of the susq valley (namely
sullivan and schuylkill counties) could see 5-6 inches by
daybreak Wednesday... More than a 30 hour period of snowfall
which equates to extended duration advisory criteria.

This event will be a marginal winter weather advisory over the
laurels, central mtns and mid susq valley as the bulk of the
approx 3 or 4 inches falls over roughly a 12 to 15 hour period
this afternoon and the first half of tonight. Snowfall
will be mainly around 0.25 inch hour, but periods of near
moderate snow intensity will increase rates to around or
slightly over 0.5 inch hour.

High temps this afternoon will vary from the mid 20s across the
higher terrain of the north and west, to the upper 20s in the
central mtns, and between 32-34f across the lower susq valley.

The slightly milder temps across the SE and later onset of the
more persistent light snow with vsbys of 1-2sm will lessen the
impact across that region during much of the daylight hours
today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The aforementioned upper level forcing beneath the re region of
the upper let, and associated light snow will continue through
at least the first half of tonight across the central ridge and
valley region, and linger into the day Wednesday over the lower
susq valley and far eastern zones. Any snow left across the nw
mtns will be spotty and very light and intermittent as the jet
axis shifts east of that area with broad mid to upper level
subsidence and drying developin. Light wnw flow of colder air
will act as the lone factor for some light snow INVOF kbfd and
points west. The light snow will gradually taper off from NW to
se during the early to mid morning hours Wednesday, but could
linger til around noon Wednesday to the SE of interstate 81.

A tricky call for low temps at daybreak Wed as the deep-layer
moisture and thick-layered cloud cover will be slowly exiting to
the east, with the back edge likely near the i-99 route 220
corridor at 12z Wednesday. This will mean a moderately sharp
nw-se temp gradient of about 10f within just 10-20 miles where
some clearing is possible.

Mins will range from the low-mid single digits across the laurel
highlands and NW mtns to the low teens in the central mtns, and
around 20f in the se.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Mianly dry and quite cold conditions persist Wednesday night
under westerly flow - that will gust frequently between 20-30
mph Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds over
the lower ohio valley and SE states, while a strong north-south
pressure gradient resides across the midwest, great lakes
region, and upper ohio valley into pa. Gusts over the western
mtns could be around 40 mph (but probably not reaching wind
advisory criteria of 46kt gusts).

Conditions still look dry for Thursday into Friday. Winds shift
more to the west across the northwest on Thursday, thus more of
a warm advection set up there. The coldest push of air is down
the tn vly on wed.

Temperatures by the weekend will be well above normal, as the
upper lvl ridge builds. Took out rain and snow for Saturday.

00z ec has next system so strong over the plains that the cold
front gets push well east of the upper lvl system by late
Monday. Went with a dry fcst aft this.

This warm up not fcst to have dewpoints much above the lower
40s, thus not expecting a lot of heavy rain. More information
in hydro section below.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
MVFR and ifr conds will be common at most central pa airfields
through early afternoon, until a wave of low pressure swings
through which will kick off a widespread light to moderate snow
and bring along a period of widespread ifr restrictions. This
area of snow should begin to develop scross northwestern 2 3rds
of CWA by 18z. The lower susq may not see snow intensity
increase until late day (or even early evening at lns) based on
hi-res model precip progs. But it will eventually bring ifr
restrictions there as well for tonight into early Wed as trough
lifts through - while conditions improve from the west behind
the trough.

Ceiling restrictions linger over the western higher terrain
along with scattered snow showers for remainder of wed.

Otherwise, conditions will return toVFR. Thursday looks to be
breezy with gusts to 15-25 mph.

Outlook...

wed...VFR SE half, but ceiling reductions and intermittent vsby
restrictions across the northern and western mtns as a result
of isolated snow showers.

Thu-sat..MainlyVFR.

Hydrology
The threat of ice jamming is diminishing. Several cold days
into mid week will form additional ice as stream flow and open
channels decrease. Another warm up by the weekend. Dewpoints
for this warm up much less than the event last Friday.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for paz012-
018-019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049-050.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for paz036-
051>053-056>059-063>066.

Synopsis... Lambert
near term... Devoir lambert
short term... Lambert
long term... Lambert martin
aviation... Devoir rxr
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsport - Lycoming County Airport, PA26 mi65 minENE 31.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F25°F88%1029.4 hPa

Wind History from IPT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5CalmNE4CalmN4NE6NE6CalmCalmE5E10NE6NE10NE7NE5E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3
1 day agoN7N6NE7NE8N3CalmN3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmW3S3Calm
2 days agoNW14NW13NW8NW9N11NW10NW9NW11NW9W8NW7NW5W5NW5NW5W7W7W9W6W8W6SW3N63

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.