Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, PA
May 7, 2024 8:08 PM EDT (00:08 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:23 AM Moonset 7:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 072341 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 741 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
- A warm front will drift northeast across the area this evening with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm across southern PA.
- Low pressure moves just north of the area tonight into Wednesday morning, brining showers and thunderstorms.
- A stronger wave of low pressure will move across southern PA Thursday evening.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Some isolated showers will continue across SE PA this evening with a shower potentially grazing Warren/Elk counties as it moves northeast and into western NY between 8-9pm. Showers are expected to taper off/dissipate around 9pm this evening with a brief break and no precipitation.
Temps did slightly overperform today, allowing for slightly warmer than forecast MinTs this evening with increasing cloud cover throughout the evening and overnight hours. MinTs will remain fairly uniform ranging from the upper 50s across the northern tier to lower 60s across the southern tier.
Low pressure moves toward PA and western NY late overnight with recent model solutions outlining a slower progression. PWAT values topping out near 1.5" with a slight increase in CAPE that will promote numerous SHRA/TSRA. Models continue to outline that the area of greatest coverage remains across W PA in the 03-07Z timeframe overnight as the nose of a moderately strong, 35-45 KT LLJ approaches the region. Precipitation will continue moving eastward overnight with some lingering showers and thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania during the early morning hours.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Some lingering precipitation is possible at the very beginning of the short-term period across eastern PA, before drier conditions are expected to prevail for Wednesday. Recent model soundings have outlined much drier air aloft, which limits precipitation chances throughout much of the day. Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid- and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid-80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA. Mixed in lower PWATs via the NBM 25 pctl values for Wed afternoon as sfc dewpoints dive into the 40s (and possibly a few u30s across the Northern Mtns) during the late afternoon hours.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
While Wednesday will be mainly dry for much of the time, wet conditions work back into the area for Thursday. A sfc low still looks like it will track right along the PA, MD border.
High temperatures for the most part will be below 70 degrees, and extensive cloud cover as well, will limit the chance for thunder. SPC has slight near the border in the far southeast.
Storm development will depend on the track of the low and if much in the way of heating can occur during the day on Thursday.
While rain will not occur all the time on Thursday or be very heavy, much of the day will feature at least some spotty rain and drizzle.
While the low moves off the coast on Friday, cooling aloft will result in a chilly day, along with some showers.
A brief break is likely for early Saturday, but another low drops southeast later on during the weekend, so looking at no real dry spells anytime soon. An upper level ridge building across the western states will aid in keeping more of the same type of conditions over our area into early next week.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A shower could produce a brief vis reduction in the vicinity of KMDT/KLNS through around 01Z. Otherwise, confidence is high for widespread VFR flying conditions and light winds across Central PA this evening.
Low pressure lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks will spread a broken line of showers/tsra through the region late tonight, lasting 2-3 hours and accompanied by possible MVFR vis reductions. An increasingly moist southwest flow ahead of an upstream cold front is then likely to yield late night IFR cigs at KBFD and possible IFR cigs at KJST. Downsloping flow east of the Alleghenies should result in nothing worse than MVFR conditions over that part of the state.
The passage of a low level jet late tonight could result in borderline LLWS conditions across the W Mtns late tonight.
However, the 18Z Bufkit soundings suggest we will remain just below criteria.
The cold front will sweep through the region later Wed morning, probably without any precipitation. A drier westerly flow behind the front will bring a return to widespread VFR conditions between 12Z-15Z.
Outlook...
Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.
Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.
Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.
Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief vis reductions possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 741 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
- A warm front will drift northeast across the area this evening with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm across southern PA.
- Low pressure moves just north of the area tonight into Wednesday morning, brining showers and thunderstorms.
- A stronger wave of low pressure will move across southern PA Thursday evening.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Some isolated showers will continue across SE PA this evening with a shower potentially grazing Warren/Elk counties as it moves northeast and into western NY between 8-9pm. Showers are expected to taper off/dissipate around 9pm this evening with a brief break and no precipitation.
Temps did slightly overperform today, allowing for slightly warmer than forecast MinTs this evening with increasing cloud cover throughout the evening and overnight hours. MinTs will remain fairly uniform ranging from the upper 50s across the northern tier to lower 60s across the southern tier.
Low pressure moves toward PA and western NY late overnight with recent model solutions outlining a slower progression. PWAT values topping out near 1.5" with a slight increase in CAPE that will promote numerous SHRA/TSRA. Models continue to outline that the area of greatest coverage remains across W PA in the 03-07Z timeframe overnight as the nose of a moderately strong, 35-45 KT LLJ approaches the region. Precipitation will continue moving eastward overnight with some lingering showers and thunderstorms across eastern Pennsylvania during the early morning hours.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Some lingering precipitation is possible at the very beginning of the short-term period across eastern PA, before drier conditions are expected to prevail for Wednesday. Recent model soundings have outlined much drier air aloft, which limits precipitation chances throughout much of the day. Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid- and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid-80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA. Mixed in lower PWATs via the NBM 25 pctl values for Wed afternoon as sfc dewpoints dive into the 40s (and possibly a few u30s across the Northern Mtns) during the late afternoon hours.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
While Wednesday will be mainly dry for much of the time, wet conditions work back into the area for Thursday. A sfc low still looks like it will track right along the PA, MD border.
High temperatures for the most part will be below 70 degrees, and extensive cloud cover as well, will limit the chance for thunder. SPC has slight near the border in the far southeast.
Storm development will depend on the track of the low and if much in the way of heating can occur during the day on Thursday.
While rain will not occur all the time on Thursday or be very heavy, much of the day will feature at least some spotty rain and drizzle.
While the low moves off the coast on Friday, cooling aloft will result in a chilly day, along with some showers.
A brief break is likely for early Saturday, but another low drops southeast later on during the weekend, so looking at no real dry spells anytime soon. An upper level ridge building across the western states will aid in keeping more of the same type of conditions over our area into early next week.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A shower could produce a brief vis reduction in the vicinity of KMDT/KLNS through around 01Z. Otherwise, confidence is high for widespread VFR flying conditions and light winds across Central PA this evening.
Low pressure lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks will spread a broken line of showers/tsra through the region late tonight, lasting 2-3 hours and accompanied by possible MVFR vis reductions. An increasingly moist southwest flow ahead of an upstream cold front is then likely to yield late night IFR cigs at KBFD and possible IFR cigs at KJST. Downsloping flow east of the Alleghenies should result in nothing worse than MVFR conditions over that part of the state.
The passage of a low level jet late tonight could result in borderline LLWS conditions across the W Mtns late tonight.
However, the 18Z Bufkit soundings suggest we will remain just below criteria.
The cold front will sweep through the region later Wed morning, probably without any precipitation. A drier westerly flow behind the front will bring a return to widespread VFR conditions between 12Z-15Z.
Outlook...
Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.
Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.
Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.
Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief vis reductions possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Binghamton, NY,
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