Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, PA
April 30, 2024 3:43 PM EDT (19:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 1:06 AM Moonset 10:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 301855 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 255 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
-Closing out April with showers and a few strong t-storms -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity Wednesday-Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with rain likely Sat/Sun
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
235PM/1835UTC: Latest SPC mesoanalysis page shows the best MLCAPE ribbon from the northeastern-most CPA zones northward through the Poconos to KBGM. A few storms in Tioga and Sullivan County have cores worthy of SPS at this time. The storm in Susquehanna County (WFO BGM) remains the storm of the day so far in PA.
135PM/1735UTC: Updates for the rest of the afternoon include:
1) Upgrade to MRGL risk SWO (level 1 out of 5)
Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. 5% severe wind and hail probs. Updated wx grids and HWO.
SWOMCD #573: Concerning
Severe potential
Watch unlikely
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, possibly including a gradually organizing cluster, may pose increasing potential for marginally severe hail and wind by 2-4 PM EDT. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.
2) MRGL risk WPC ERO trimmed back to northeast zones adjacent to BGM and PHI: Latest hires guidance keeps heaviest rain closer to the Catskills and in the Poconos this afternoon with brief heavy downpours form quick moving storms maintaining low flood risk.
17-18Z temps are likely near max values for today and have outperformed a bit to the upside given strong daytime heating.
GOES16 Geocolor visible satellite shows most of central PA now covered under expanding cumulus which should cap further upside.
Marginal severe/FF risk ends this evening with loss of heating.
Hires ensemble data shifts showers into the southeastern part of the area tonight before gradually diminishing/moving eastward through early AM Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest guidance continues to indicate warm/dry conditions through midweek with a trend toward unsettled weather into the weekend.
Dry air entrainment/mixing heights combined with mostly sunny skies and mean westerly flow all signal to cut dewpoints and raise temps by a few degrees in-kind for both afternoons.
The sfc pattern by Friday begins to take on a CAD configuration as high pressure channels down the eastside of the Appalachians.
Can't rule out a late-day PM shower or t-storm across the western Alleghenies with POPs increasing from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. Cloud trends and southeast flow could result in a considerable west/east temp gradient with max temp spread between 80-65F across central PA. Further adjustments to Friday high temp fcst likely over the next few cycles. This setup could also favor low clouds and fog into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into AM Sat.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure tracking north of PA into the Canadian Maritimes will likely result in a developing easterly flow and the onset of cooler conditions Friday PM into the weekend. All medium range guidance points to a rainy and cool weekend, especially the first half, as a southerly low level jet linked to an upper trough over the Great Lakes and an associated plume of deep moisture overruns a stationary front over the Ohio Valley.
Latest EPS plumes indicate around a half inch of rain is likely by late Sunday.
Passage of the upper trough and associated occluded front appears likely to bring drier and warmer conditions by Monday of next week. A warm front arriving Tuesday could signal a return of clouds and showers/tstorms to the region.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front approaching from the west will slowly track through the Central PA airspace through the day and will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. As the showers and storms move in, ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR and brief visibility restrictions will be possible in any heavier thunderstorms.
After the front passes, low clouds will linger into the overnight hours, especially over the western mtns (JST/BFD).
These should diminish in the early morning on Wednesday. We could see some fog develop overnight and into Wednesday morning, especially in any locations that see some breaks in the clouds behind the front. Currently, the HRRR and SREF show a 30-50% chance of IFR visibilities developing after 06Z across the western mountains.
Outlook...
Wed...Early AM low cigs possible W Mtns.
Thu...No sig wx expected.
Fri...Evening showers/cig reductions possible.
Sat and Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA. IFR poss.
CLIMATE
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations today (Monday):
SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956)
Bradford 82F 76F (1984)
Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974)
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 255 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
-Closing out April with showers and a few strong t-storms -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity Wednesday-Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with rain likely Sat/Sun
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
235PM/1835UTC: Latest SPC mesoanalysis page shows the best MLCAPE ribbon from the northeastern-most CPA zones northward through the Poconos to KBGM. A few storms in Tioga and Sullivan County have cores worthy of SPS at this time. The storm in Susquehanna County (WFO BGM) remains the storm of the day so far in PA.
135PM/1735UTC: Updates for the rest of the afternoon include:
1) Upgrade to MRGL risk SWO (level 1 out of 5)
Strong daytime heating is occurring over areas from central NY into central PA, where dewpoints are in the upper 50s. Forecast soundings suggest afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are relatively weak/veered, but sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates could contribute to a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells this afternoon. 5% severe wind and hail probs. Updated wx grids and HWO.
SWOMCD #573: Concerning
Severe potential
Watch unlikely
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, possibly including a gradually organizing cluster, may pose increasing potential for marginally severe hail and wind by 2-4 PM EDT. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored.
2) MRGL risk WPC ERO trimmed back to northeast zones adjacent to BGM and PHI: Latest hires guidance keeps heaviest rain closer to the Catskills and in the Poconos this afternoon with brief heavy downpours form quick moving storms maintaining low flood risk.
17-18Z temps are likely near max values for today and have outperformed a bit to the upside given strong daytime heating.
GOES16 Geocolor visible satellite shows most of central PA now covered under expanding cumulus which should cap further upside.
Marginal severe/FF risk ends this evening with loss of heating.
Hires ensemble data shifts showers into the southeastern part of the area tonight before gradually diminishing/moving eastward through early AM Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest guidance continues to indicate warm/dry conditions through midweek with a trend toward unsettled weather into the weekend.
Dry air entrainment/mixing heights combined with mostly sunny skies and mean westerly flow all signal to cut dewpoints and raise temps by a few degrees in-kind for both afternoons.
The sfc pattern by Friday begins to take on a CAD configuration as high pressure channels down the eastside of the Appalachians.
Can't rule out a late-day PM shower or t-storm across the western Alleghenies with POPs increasing from west to east Friday night into Saturday morning. Cloud trends and southeast flow could result in a considerable west/east temp gradient with max temp spread between 80-65F across central PA. Further adjustments to Friday high temp fcst likely over the next few cycles. This setup could also favor low clouds and fog into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into AM Sat.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure tracking north of PA into the Canadian Maritimes will likely result in a developing easterly flow and the onset of cooler conditions Friday PM into the weekend. All medium range guidance points to a rainy and cool weekend, especially the first half, as a southerly low level jet linked to an upper trough over the Great Lakes and an associated plume of deep moisture overruns a stationary front over the Ohio Valley.
Latest EPS plumes indicate around a half inch of rain is likely by late Sunday.
Passage of the upper trough and associated occluded front appears likely to bring drier and warmer conditions by Monday of next week. A warm front arriving Tuesday could signal a return of clouds and showers/tstorms to the region.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front approaching from the west will slowly track through the Central PA airspace through the day and will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. As the showers and storms move in, ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR and brief visibility restrictions will be possible in any heavier thunderstorms.
After the front passes, low clouds will linger into the overnight hours, especially over the western mtns (JST/BFD).
These should diminish in the early morning on Wednesday. We could see some fog develop overnight and into Wednesday morning, especially in any locations that see some breaks in the clouds behind the front. Currently, the HRRR and SREF show a 30-50% chance of IFR visibilities developing after 06Z across the western mountains.
Outlook...
Wed...Early AM low cigs possible W Mtns.
Thu...No sig wx expected.
Fri...Evening showers/cig reductions possible.
Sat and Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA. IFR poss.
CLIMATE
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations today (Monday):
SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956)
Bradford 82F 76F (1984)
Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974)
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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