Monday, November12, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Laporte, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:48PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:19AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laporte , PA
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location: 41.46, -76.5     debug

Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 122348
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
648 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

A storm system will track up the eastern seaboard tonight and
Tuesday. After a brief break in the storminess for midweek,
another storm will affect the region Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Mrms rala showing light precipitation just entering the
southwest portion of the forecast area at 23z ahead of low
pressure lifting up the east coast. Model soundings indicate
precipitation will arrive as an initial period of snow across
the south central mountains and laurels this evening, then
change to all rain by late evening. Suspect a light coating of
snow will accumulate before the changeover south of i-80 and at
elevations above 1000ft. Further east, boundary layer
temperatures look too warm for anything but rain across the susq

The main focus for accumulating snow will be over the northern
1 3 of the state, where model soundings and latest hrefv2
indicate there will be enough cold air for mainly snow, as the
steadiest precip arrives late tonight. Converting latest blend
of model QPF to snow still supports a 1-3 inch snowfall across
the northern mountains tonight. With surface temperatures
teetering near 32f, suspect the highest amounts and best chance
of slippery roads will be on the ridgetops. Road surface
temperatures going into the evening are well above freezing and
most places already have residual salt on the roads from several
days ago. Therefore, many road surfaces may be wet rather than
white over northern pa tonight.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Steady precipitation will taper off early Tuesday, as the
surface low races NE under the fast flow aloft. Over the
allegheny plateau, light orographic rain snow appears likely
during mid to late morning, transitioning to scattered lake
effect snow showers during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
look too warm to support much in the way of snow accumulation
Tuesday. Also, dry air crossing the grt lks and relatively low
inversion heights support the meager model QPF we are seeing
downwind of the lakes. Will carry just a light coating Tuesday
over the higher terrain of warren mckean counties.

East of the mountains, the threat of lingering rain showers
should end by midday, as a drier northwest flow takes hold and
breaks in the overcast develop.

A tight pressure gradient in the wake of departing storm will
result in an increasingly gusty northwest wind Tuesday across
all of central pa. Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts
between 20-25kts by afternoon, with the highest winds across the
laurels and south central mountains.

Latest superblend nbm guidance indicates high temperatures will
range from the mid 30s over the northwest mountains, to the
upper 40s across the lower susq valley.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
For Tuesday night 850 to 500 mb thermal trough swings through
quickly and the moderately strong and fairly well-aligned nw
flow in the sfc-850 mb layer will help to transport some thin
bands of snow showers well inland, but accums similar to this
past Saturday will be very minimal, but could lead to localized
travel problems from borderline temps and a possible quick
freeze of road surfaces in any briefly heavier snow showers.

Max temps Tuesday afternoon will vary from the mid 30s across
the NW mtns and ridge tops of the laurels, to the upper 40s in
the SE as the llvl flow shifts to the NW and downslopes mixes
out 850 mb temps that will be zero to plus 2c.

Min temps Tuesday night will be near 20f across the laurel
highlands and NW mtns, and 25 to 30 degrees elsewhere with
partial clearing and just some brief flurries in the susquehanna

A brief period of tranquility arrives for Wednesday with the
center of high pressure moving nearly overhead. The lack of
vertical mixing under the strong llvl inversion (combined with
the possible increase in high clouds with the low-sun angle),
will lead to a much colder than normal day (by around 15 deg f).

A potent shot of lagging southern stream energy in the form of a
rather compact upper low will lift NE from the tenn and lower
ohio river valley Thursday, with a well-defined, coupled
jet streak circulation and periods of broad and moderately
strong uvvel. Strong dynamic cooling ahead and beneath the upper
low (with deep, dry, cold air preceding its arrival) will lead
to snow or mixed precip across most or all of the region

Numerous u.S., canadian and euro op models are in very good
agreement on the track and timing of this probable winter storm
with a range of precip types and intensity.

Although a straight, 10 to 1 QPF to snow conversion yields
significant amounts of snow, but it's almost a given (based on
the daytime timing and low-level thermal profiles) that
snow water ratios would be substantially lower and mixed with
rain at times SE of the alleghenies.

Expect perhaps an inch or so of slushy accum in the central
valleys of the state, with up to several inches of wet snow
possible across the higher terrain ridge tops of central pa,
the laurels and western poconos where high temps will be between
32-35f. Temps Thursday will only reach around 30 degrees across
the higher elevations of the NW mtns and top out in the upper
30s in the larger metro areas of the lower susq valley.

High pressure will provide improving conditions into late week
with temps moderating a bit on Friday.

A secondary cfront accompanying a strong northern stream
shortwave, looks like it won't arrive soon enough to phase with
the southern stream wave, but rather absorb the lead shortwave
in the strengthening SW flow aloft from the central appalachians
to the new england coast. Another shot of cold air will sweep
into the region behind this frontal boundary Saturday with
accompanying scattered lake effect snow showers.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
00z tafs sent.

Just starting to see some snow at jst and bfd at times.

Web bulb across these areas will be close to the 32 to 33
degree range, before temperatures rise later tonight.

Across the southeast, expect all rain.

Low lifting northeast along coast will be moving fast,
thus bulk of the rain and snow will be between 06z and 12z.

Some snow showers across the north and west on Tue afteroon.

Improving conditions by wed.

Wed... MVFR CIGS NW trendingVFR.

Thu-fri... A new storm system will bring a return of widespread
MVFR ifr.

Sat... MainlyVFR with ocnl MVFR NW in snow showers.

Ctp watches warnings advisories

Synopsis... La corte
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Fitzgerald la corte
long term... Lambert gartner
aviation... Martin

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Williamsport - Lycoming County Airport, PA26 mi74 minVar 310.00 miOvercast43°F28°F56%1025.5 hPa

Wind History from IPT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4E44CalmE3Calm34
1 day agoW6W7W4W6W8W8W9W8W7W7W8W9W8W10W9W7W8SW6SW75CalmCalmE3Calm
2 days agoN4CalmW4W11W6W6W5W6W5W10W7W9W12W19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.