Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lorain, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:11PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:59 AM EST (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:03PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 907 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Overnight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ145 Expires:201902220915;;310137 FZUS51 KCLE 220207 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 907 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-220915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lorain, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221357
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
857 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the midwest will build eastward across the
region today. Strong low pressure will develop over the
southern plains on Saturday and track through the great lakes
Sunday. This will lift a warm front northward across the area
late Saturday followed quickly by a cold front Saturday night
into early Sunday. High pressure will build across the region
Monday into Monday night.

Near term through Saturday
Forecast on track with no changes on morning update.

Previous discussion...

high pressure over the midwest will build eastward across the
region today. Expect to see filtered sunshine through the day
with highs ranging from the mid 30s near the lake to the lower
40s across the south. High pressure remains in control tonight
with lows into the 20s at most locations.

A warm front will lift northward toward the region on Saturday
with low level moisture beginning to advect northward. It
appears the rain will be slow to start which is a good thing
since it should allow temperatures to warm above freezing.

However there is a very short time period across the NW oh that
may allow for some freezing rain. It looks extremely light and
should transition to rain quickly. It then looks like increasing
chances through the day with a steady rain developing from
south to north through the afternoon. NW pa will be the last to
see the steady rain, which may hold off until after sunset.

Daytime high temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid
40s across NW oh and NW pa to the lower 50s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
All eyes will be watching the rapidly deepening surface low pressure
which will move across the great lakes region Saturday night into
southern canada by Sunday morning. Model guidance shows this storm
system dropping about a millibar an hour Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. It would almost be what we call in the meteorology
world... A "bombogenesis" which by definition is a low pressure
system dropping 24 millibars in 24 hours. This storm system will be
close across the midwest into the great lakes region.

We will be in the warm sector Saturday night with temperatures
rising during the night ahead of a strong cold front. Showers
will be likely and windy. Dewpoints will creep up into the low
50s. Actual air temperatures will be in the middle 50s. The
upper and mid level dynamics will be off the charts with shear.

We can't rule out the potential for a couple strong thunderstorms.

We could see a setup or a few low top storms and given the strong
winds above the surface, some of these storms could transport
damaging wind gusts down to the surface. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible as well Saturday night. We will have to monitor
this potential given our snowmelt and saturated ground.

Otherwise, as the cold front blast on through the area, winds will
shift to southwesterly and eventually westerly as well as increase.

Winds on Sunday will be 30 to 45 mph with gusts over 60 mph
possible, especially closer to the lakeshore. The cips analog
guidance indicate moderate to high potential of seeing wind gusts 50
to 60 mph. We have a high wind watch out for the entire area for
this potential. Cold air will begin advecting into the area late
Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon with steady falling temperatures
throughout the day. Scattered light rain showers will gradually
change to scattered light snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening.

Lake effect snow showers will continue for the primary snowbelt
region Sunday night into Monday. Minor accumulations are likely in
the snowbelt areas with several inches expected.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
A warm front will start to lift northward across northern ohio early
Tuesday morning. Models indicate a band of light snow will develop
north of the front. The next upper level wave will move across the
great lakes region middle of next week with a good chance of light
snow and a rain snow mix. Some minor accumulations may be possible.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below average for much of next
week. Another cold front will move through on Thursday and clear out
the precip chances.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions will continue through the day. Variable amounts
of high level cloud cover are expected. Light northeast to east
winds should occur through the afternoon, generally under 8
knots.

Outlook... NonVFR likely Saturday Sunday with strong southwest
to west winds possible Sunday.

Marine
Rapidly changing conditions are expected on the lake this weekend. A
rapidly deepening storm system will move across the great lakes
region this weekend. Strong southerly winds will increase Saturday
and Saturday night 15 to 25 knots. Winds will increase to 30 to 45
knots and become southwesterly to westerly on Sunday. Gusts 50 to 60
knots will be likely on the lake Sunday into Sunday night. The
western basis of the lake has a gale watch and the central and
eastern portions of the lake has a storm watch out where the highest
winds will likely occur. The lake is mostly ice covered at this time
but we expect quite a bit of shifting, changing, and breaking of the
ice this weekend. We will likely see the water pushed from the
western basis to the eastern basin. Water levels will likely fall
below critical water levels on the western basin by Sunday and be
above normal water levels on the eastern basin. Winds will
finally relax by late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly winds
return and increase by middle of next week.

Significant ice floes are expected over the weekend in the
strong winds. There is a high potential for ridging and rafting
of the ice in the strong winds and mariners should be ALERT that
tracks will not hold.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
ohz010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.

High wind watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
night for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.

Pa... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
paz001>003.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lez142>145-162>165.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
lez146>149-166>169.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Jamison mm
short term... Griffin
long term... Griffin
aviation... Mm
marine... Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 2 mi90 min ENE 8 G 8 30°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 19 mi75 min NE 5.1 32°F 1031 hPa24°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 20 mi60 min ENE 8 G 8.9 30°F 1029.5 hPa (+1.4)
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 29 mi60 min NNE 7 G 8 30°F 1030.5 hPa (+1.0)24°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 30 mi60 min ENE 8 G 8.9 30°F 33°F1032 hPa (+1.0)24°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 37 mi60 min E 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 1032.4 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH8 mi67 minNE 88.00 miFair33°F21°F64%1031.7 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH16 mi69 minNE 48.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F25°F72%1032.1 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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W9NW8NW9NW9NW9NW9NW9NW9N5N6NE6N4N5NE7NE6NE10NE8
1 day agoE9
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2 days ago45NE64NE6NE6NE11NE10NE9NE9NE9NE9NE8NE8E9E11E8E8E6E7E8E9NE9E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.