Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lorain, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 948 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Overnight..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely with a chance of sleet in the morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain with snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees and off erie 47 degrees.
LEZ145 Expires:201811150915;;318737 FZUS51 KCLE 150248 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 948 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>147-150915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lorain, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 150554
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1254 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes will continue to move northeast
of the area tonight. Low pressure will develop over the tennessee
valley region and move north into the ohio valley by Thursday night.

The low will become absorbed in an east coast low pressure system
Thursday night. The east coast low will develop near jacksonville,
florida tonight. Another area of high pressure will build northeast
across the southern states to ohio valley region by Friday night. A
cold front will sag south across the area Saturday night.

Near term through today
Update... Reworked weather grids overnight through Thursday
night. Main change for Thursday was to remove shower wording for
a more stratiform precip shield. Also found a few grids where
zr was collocated with above freezing temps so fixed those
issues.

Original... A potential winter type scenario is shaping up
across the local area in the next 12 to 24 hours. The upper
level pattern will begin to trend toward a progressive one as a
deep upper level low pressure system pivots slowly northeast
into the ohio valley by Thursday night. The upper level low will
slowly weaken and dissipate into a negatively tilted trough.

This will result in cyclogenesis in and around the tennessee
valley that will track northeast toward the local area.

Meanwhile, a coastal low will develop and move northeast along
the east coast and will eventually absorb the surface low
pressure system over our area.

The surface low pressure system will force moisture to stream north
toward the region. Initially, the lower levels will be quite dry
but we are expecting this layer to moisten over a few hours tonight
resulting in precipitation reaching the surface.

Model soundings are fairly certain freezing rain will occur across
the south but they suggest the air temperature will hug the zero
line in a fairly deep layer in the north. We think the
precipitation will be freezing rain that will transition to a mixed
precipitation over much of northern ohio. The exception will be
northwest pennsylvania and ashtabula where the onset of
precipitation will be later. Our concern is the potential for light
freezing rain drizzle that will last well into the evening tomorrow
evening. To downplay the impact of this event, we are only
expecting a light glazing of ice. Most impacts should be to
untreated surfaces.

As far as temperatures go, looking at lows into the 20s overnight as
cold air advection continues. Not much of a warm-up expected
Thursday expecting highs just above the freezing mark. Highs in the
northeast should be in the 30 to 32 degree range for the extended
freezing precipitation later into the evening.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
East coast storm will reach the new england states by Friday
afternoon. This will allow the next upper level trough to move into
the area which should provide an increase in snow chances. It doesnt
appear that the snow will be significant on Friday. We will need to
monitor the lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday across the
primary snowbelt. The next cold front will move into the central
great lakes by Saturday night.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages. Highs generally int eh
upper 30s to around 40.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Frontal boundary will be in the region on Sunday. As some jet energy
moves across the region on Sunday night into Monday we should nudge
the boundary out of the region with a brief period of lake effect
snow showers possible. The troughiness then persists across the
central great lakes into Wednesday with chances of snow persisting
across the primary snowbelt. Something for us to watch but current
thinking is that amounts will remain on the light side.

High temperatures mainly in the 30s Sunday through Tuesday. Slightly
warmer on Wednesday. Lows in the 20s to around 30.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Expect a slowly lowering overcast through the night as moisture
continues to increase across the region.VFR conditions will
quickly transition over to ifr after daybreak as precip moves
into the area. For tol believe precip will be primarily snow
with some light accumulations. For the other terminals precip
should start off as snow then be a mix of rain, freezing rain,
sleet and snow through much of the day. As the storm system
moves out precip will transition to all snow.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Thursday night area wide and in the
northeast Friday. Non-vfr again Saturday through Sunday.

Marine
High pressure over the region this afternoon will shift eastward
quickly as the storm system takes shape along the east coast. A
stronger upper level trough will cross the central great lakes on
Friday with increasing southwest to west winds. A small craft
advisory will be needed. High pressure will ridge northward toward
the lake from the ohio river valley Friday night into early
Saturday. The next cold front will be near lake erie Saturday night
into Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory from 5 am early this morning to 7 pm
est this evening for ohz003-006>013-017>023-027>033-
036>038-047.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 3 am est
Friday for ohz014-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 3 am est
Friday for paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Tk lombardy
short term... Mullen
long term... Mullen
aviation... Jamison tk
marine... Mullen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 2 mi30 min E 14 G 17 31°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 19 mi20 min E 18 G 21 35°F 1026.8 hPa25°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 20 mi60 min E 13 G 18 31°F 1025.1 hPa (-3.3)
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 29 mi30 min 30°F 47°F1026.7 hPa15°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 30 mi30 min E 16 G 20 34°F 41°F1026.6 hPa22°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 37 mi60 min E 17 G 21 34°F 1028.2 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH8 mi67 minENE 1010.00 miFair28°F16°F60%1028.7 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH16 mi69 minE 610.00 miOvercast30°F18°F61%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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N7N5N4NE7NE5NE9NE9CalmNE7E7E10E9E8E9E10E11
1 day agoNW7NW12N7N8N12
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2 days ago43S3S4453NE744CalmNE64NE7NE8NE6CalmNW7NW6NW8N4N6NW6NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.