Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sandusky, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 10:06PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 323 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southeast and diminishing to 10 knots or less. A chance of Thunderstorms through early evening. Showers. Thunderstorms from late evening on. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees...off cleveland 38 degrees and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201703310215;;326332 FZUS51 KCLE 301923 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 323 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ144>148-310215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandusky, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 302333
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
733 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over illinois will track across northern ohio on
Friday. A warm front will push northeast ahead of the low this
evening with the front occluding over the area later tonight.

The low will move east of the area by Friday night. High
pressure from the upper midwest will move overhead by Sunday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Convection is continuing across the region and is mainly
confined to the left exit region of the upper jet which is
positioned from near cle on SW to evv. A strong area of upper
divergence is located across NW ohio and northern indiana mainly
to the left of the jet stream cirrus shield. More recently an
area of convection north of cmh has developed in another small
region of upper level divergence. Expect the trend of increased
convective activity to continue across the region overnight with
some gradual warming over the southern and eastern counties.

The east to NE flow off of cool lake erie will keep temperatures
rather uniform near tol.

With the warm front in the region for the next several
hours... Low level wind shear remains high near 30 knots with
ample deep shear greater than 50 knots. LCL heights are a
little high for favorable tornado formation except near tol and
across the far north.

Previous discussion:
an upper level low is located over missouri with surface low
pressure over illinois. A warm front extends from the low
eastward into central ohio. This low will continue to lift north
this evening. A tornado watch has been issued upstream across
central indiana and west central ohio. A portion of our
southwestern counties remains in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms this evening as this warm front approaches the
area. Surface based CAPE of around 1000 j/kg has developed
across southern indiana this afternoon while our area remains
north of the warm sector with only a few hundred joules of
elevated instability in place across our forecast area. The
severe weather threat this evening remains difficult to
determine as the easterly flow north of the warm front holds
firm with temperatures across northern ohio in the 40s. Other
limiting factors include fairly warm mid-levels with the ridge
aloft and the warm front approaching the area just prior to
sunset.

Mini-supercells will likely develop along the warm front this
evening with the main window for severe weather from 6 to 10
pm. A strong 120 knot upper level jet is moving out of the
upper level trough across indiana and northwest ohio this
evening. Shear both in the low levels and aloft will be more
than sufficient for organized storms. The primary threats with
storms this evening will be wind/hail with an isolated tornado
threat along the warm front where surface winds are strongly
backed. Widespread rain will fill in overnight with the system
occluding and pushing eastward overnight. A hail threat may
persist longer into the overnight hours as low levels stabilize
by late evening and the other threats decrease.

Portions of northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania have seen .4
to .75 inch of rain so far today. Additional rainfall overnight
through Friday morning of around an inch is expected. This will
result in rises on area rivers and a few could reach minor flood
stage. Will need to monitor for training, especially with
thunderstorms overnight into Friday morning and could need a flood
advisory or warning for heavy rainfall.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/
The low pulls away to the east by Friday night showers will linger
across the eastern half of the area into the evening with ample
moisture wrapping around the back side of the system. As low
level flow shifts around to the north much cooler air will be pulled
south across the area. Showers should finally diminish by Saturday
morning with clouds trying to scatter out from the northwest late.

With the flow on the lake, highs on Saturday will range from the mid
40s to near 50 unless we clear out sooner. High pressure will build
southeast across the area on Sunday with mid cloud already on
the increase.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
Alternating ridge and trough cycle will continue through this
forecast period. Upper level trough moves into the local area Monday
with a resultant surface low pressure that will move northeast
through the ohio valley region. This feature will bring more mild
temperatures and another round of showers to the area. As the low
passes by the area Tuesday, some weak cold air advection will take
place as weak ridge of high pressure builds southeast into the area.

Fast moving ridge moves east over the area as well. This will bring
fair weather to the region but will be short lived for Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. Then, yet another deep digging upper
level low pressure system and associated trough will move east
across the area with another resultant surface low pressure system.

Once again, this system will spread more rain into the area Thursday
into Friday. Only difference, is the upper level feature packs a
little more punch allowing cooler air to pump down into the area and
could bring some light snow by the end of the week. In the mean
time, mild temperatures will continue through Thursday.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
Low pressure in mo/il area with a warm front east into southern
ohio. The low will continue ene across indiana tonight to north
central ohio by 12z Friday and into nwrn pa by evening Friday.

Given the track of the low do not believe ktol will get into
the warm sector. May also be tough for kfdy. Otherwise expect
the warm front to lift north across the central and eastern
counties with winds turning sse through the evening.

Thunderstorms will continue to spread into northwest ohio
through the evening hours. Also that area of storms across east
central ohio will lift north and affect kcak kyng and keri
through the evening. After midnight expect more showers to lift
north into the warm sector lasting through dawn taking CIGS and
vsbys down to ifr/MVFR. Friday expect widespread ifr/MVFR to
continue on the back side of the low.

Outlook... Non-vfr continuing into Friday night. Non-vfr
possible Monday into Tuesday.

Marine
Small craft advisory will need to be extended until 2 am in the
morning as winds appear they will stay up until then. Low pressure
is progged to move northeast into the area Friday and push the
lighter gradient north over the lake late tonight. Winds diminish
as the low passes by but increase again Friday night. May need
another small craft advisory again Friday night into Saturday
morning. At that time, winds diminish to light northwest Saturday
afternoon and then variable Saturday night through Sunday night.

Northeast flow will develop again Monday night into Tuesday but
should remain below small craft advisory criteria. Light and
variable winds prevail Tuesday night into early Wednesday ahead of
the next system when winds increase out of the southeast.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lez142-143.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Laplante
short term... Kec
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Tk
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 6 mi39 min E 16 G 21 40°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 12 mi102 min NE 8.9 41°F 1007 hPa38°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi27 min ENE 16 G 21 39°F 1005.2 hPa (-3.8)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 36 mi27 min ENE 23 G 27 38°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi39 min NE 8.9 G 21 40°F 1005.7 hPa38°F
45169 48 mi27 min ESE 16 G 19 39°F 37°F6 ft38°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH29 mi34 minESE 1010.00 miOvercast50°F39°F68%1005.5 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E8E6E5NE6NE7NE9E10NE9E11E10SE13E11E10E16
G21
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1 day agoN7NE9NE6N6NE7NE5NE5N4N3N5NE5NE4NE4NE66E9E8
G19
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2 days agoNE5E5NE4E4E3NE5CalmN4N4NE11NE11N9N8N9N10N10N12N11N11N11N11N7N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.