Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 8:58 AM   Moonset 12:16 AM

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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1005 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Wed and Wed night - SE winds around 15 kt, becoming ne. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Thu night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1005 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Relatively calm winds over the marine zones for Sunday. Seas over the southeastern marine zones remain somewhat elevated in the 4 to 5 foot range but will gradually diminish early next week with high pressure building over the region. Rain chances increase middle of next week as another low pressure system passes to the south.

FXUS61 KBOX 121349 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 949 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Widely scattered showers today along with cooler than normal temperatures as an upper level low pressure moves over New England. Chilly night tonight with dry weather, then turning milder Monday with another round of scattered afternoon showers possible across the interior. A frontal system may bring more showers late Tuesday into Wednesday, then drying out for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Updated: 9:45AM

No whole sale changes to the forecast, made a slight change to the sky cover to reflect the latest satellite trends. Forecast discussion below remains valid, see for further details.

Previous discussion...

Mid level low and cold pool aloft move into New Eng today but better moisture and forcing for ascent will be to the south as stronger shortwave moves to the mid Atlc region. This is where the best chance of showers will be today. However, steep low level lapse rates with sufficient moisture in the column will support widely scattered showers developing, especially in western New Eng where 850-700 mb moisture is greatest. Soundings show rather meager instability with potential of 100-200 J/kg of CAPE and warm layer around 700 mb will limit updrafts, so thunder risk is very low.
Another day with below normal temps as 850 mb temps 0 to -1C with lots of clouds. Highs will range from the mid 50s to around 60.
Winds will be light with sea-breezes developing.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Tonight...

Mid level trough axis moves east of New Eng this evening followed by shortwave ridging and rising heights. Subsidence and drying will result in partial clearing leading to another chilly night with lows 40-45.

Monday...

Ridging aloft moves to the east followed by a modest mid level jet approaching from the west which will increase warm advection.
Sunshine will give way to increasing afternoon clouds. Good moisture transport and decreasing static stability at the nose of the jet will result in a few showers moving into the interior during the afternoon. However, no thunder expected as instability axis remains well to the west. Warm advection and southerly flow will bring milder temps into the mid-upper 60s, cooler near the south coast.
S-SW winds 10-20 mph are expected.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday

Upper level ridge axis begins to slide east as a shortwave trough exits the Great Plains leaving the region in deep SW flow aloft. WAA will bring 850 mb temps up from +8C to +12C on Tuesday. This will help high temps rebound into the mid to upper 70s despite overcast cloud cover. Precipitation chances remain low Tuesday despite the WAA due to a couple dry layers in the mid levels. Better precip chances arrives Tuesday night as better moisture and forcing arrives from the shortwave.

Wednesday

Shortwave trough exits out of the Ohio River Valley and passes just south of SNE. With the best forcing to the south, this has caused models to trend the associated surface low further south. This shift south has been a trend with models in this time range over the last week and wouldn't be surprised if models keep shifting the low and QPF south over the coming days. With the shift south, Ensemble QPF probs for 1 and 2 inches have begun to decrease now showing 20-30% chance for 1 inch and less then 10% for 2 inches. Depending on where the surface low tracks, winds could be gusty on Wednesday up to 20- 30mph esspically near the coasts. High temps drop back into the mid to upper 60s with 850mb temps dropping back to +8C along with rain and thick cloud cover around much of the day.

Thursday and Friday

Guidance has trended slower kicking out the shortwave as it tries to cutoff over the mid Atlantic coast. This has resulted in rain chances lingering into Thursday before an abnormally dry airmass and NW flow kick in for Thursday afternoon into Friday. High temps both days should reach the low to mid 70s with mainly sunny conditions.
The only wrench in a nice pleasant end to the week is if the cutoff stalls just south of the region which would cause NE onshore flow to bring cooler temps and cloudier skies. This solution remains an outlier though.

Next Weekend

Another shortwave trough exits the Ohio River Valley sometime Saturday into Sunday. Guidance remains quite spread on the timing and amplitude of this shortwave trough. There will likely be a wide spread rain sometime over the weekend, but its too early to pin down exact timing and how much will fall. Highs over the weekend look to remain seasonable in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... Moderate confidence.

VFR. Widely scattered showers possible mainly for interior terminals. Light winds turning S-SE in the afternoon with sea- breezes along the coast.

Tonight... High confidence.

VFR. Low prob for patchy fog possible in prone radiator locations. Light SW winds.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

VFR cigs. A few showers possible across interior MA into CT in the afternoon. S-SW wind 10-20 kt.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Sea-breeze develops by 14z.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. We have low end VFR cigs in the TAF today but could see some MVFR at times. A few showers possible.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday...

Light winds today but becoming onshore 10-15 kt over the nearshore waters as sea-breezes develop. Modest SW-W winds tonight becoming S - SW and increasing to 10-20 kt Mon. SCA will continue over SE waters for marginal 5 ft seas today, otherwise seas will be below SCA thresholds.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255.

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Castle Hill
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Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:46 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hill, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet

Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:36 AM EDT     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM EDT     2.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:11 PM EDT     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:49 PM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots

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