Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Higganum, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:04PM Thursday March 21, 2019 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 712 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt, with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. Slight chance of rain early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ300 712 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south during today before passing through late tonight. Deepening low pressure then lifts to the north Friday and into Saturday as high pressure builds over the waters Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Higganum, CT
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location: 41.48, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211122
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
722 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will approach from the south through Thursday, and
pass through late Thursday night, then intensify as it moves
slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes Friday into
Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west Saturday
night through Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front on
Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast generally on track early this morning. Rain is
beginning to overspread southern and central nj, and this should
continue working north through the morning. Any returns on radar
east of the city have been light and have shown a general
weakening trend as they encounter stronger surface ridging.

Otherwise, two shortwaves will phase this morning leading to
the development off low pressure along the mid atlantic coast.

An axis of moisture convergence emerging north from the low and
a developing SE flow will yield good frontogenesis in the low
and mid levels with the enhanced lift waiting until the mid
level energy begins to work in tandem with the lower level warm
air advection. After collaboration with surrounding offices have
decided to hold off on any flood watch, with the concern here
mainly for far western areas, like rockland county with lower
ffg values, and northeastern new jersey counties also with lower
ffg. The thinking right now is that the duration of moderate to
potentially heavy rain will not be long enough in duration
because of the fast movement of the system. The day shift will
have to monitor however, as there is higher res guidance that
does concentrate a slug of moderate to heavy rain either over,
or just west of our western most sections. If any heavier
thundershowers develop then flooding cannot ruled out, but the
thinking now is due to a lack of confidence in enough of a
heavier rainfall duration that any flooding will likely more of
the nuisance and poor drainage variety.

The latest guidance does hold off on any appreciable rain for
eastern and northeastern sections until after 21z or so. This is
when the impacts from a strong LLJ may be felt which will aid
lift and could very well produce some heavier rain bands, with
possible embedded thunder into the early evening for LI and ct.

Thinking a good half inch to an inch of QPF for the eastern
half of the area, with areas west of nyc getting a solid an inch
to inch and a half. There is very good agreement amongst the
global and high res models with respect to the QPF drivers,
placement of dynamics and best thermal advection. This leads to
relatively good agreement with the rainfall amounts.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The storm system will get further north by late Friday night,
especially after 9z, and this is when the rain will taper off
from southwest to northeast. A tongue of drier air will wrap in
quickly behind the departing low during the mid morning on
Friday. The winds will pick up more noticeably towards the late
morning, and especially during the afternoon. Downsloping flow
may allow temperatures to hover around 50 momentarily into the
early afternoon, but then the CAA will get going and
temperatures will trail off late in the day and into Friday
evening. An strong spoke of upper level energy will dive into
the departing storm system and give it another jolt. At this
point the storm will be too far north to impact the region in
terms of any meaningful precipitation, but the storm will
intensify rapidly in the gulf of maine late on Friday and this
will lead to increasing winds due to an increasing pressure
gradient developing over the region.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
An anomalous upper low with 500 mb height anomalies 2 to 3 standard
deviations below normal moves across the northeast Friday night. The
upper low will lift towards the canadian maritimes on Saturday. The
main surface low pressure, around 980 mb, is progged to be near
maine Friday night. The surface gets captured by the deep upper low
Saturday morning as the system slowly moves the canadian maritimes.

As the upper low moves across the region Friday night, a few showers
cannot be ruled out. Temperature profiles north and west of the city
support the possibility of a few snow showers. The other story will
be strengthening NW winds Friday night into Saturday as the pressure
gradient tightens between the departing low and building high
pressure to the west. Expect sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts
30 to 40 mph late Friday night. Sustained winds may increase a bit
Saturday morning to 20-30 mph and gusts could reach 40-45 mph,
especially at the coast. Thinking the winds should stay under
advisory levels at most locations. Forecast winds in the mixed
layer per NAM and GFS bufkit profiles are strongest Saturday
morning, with weakening winds in the afternoon. This should
translate to weaker sustained winds and gusts 30-35 mph in the
afternoon.

The pressure gradient continues to weaken Saturday night into Sunday
as surface high builds to our south and west. Upper ridging attempts
to build across the ohio valley, but the height field gets suppressed
from another upper low diving south out of southeast canada. This
upper low ultimately stays well to our north and east, but will send
a shortwave and its attendant cold front towards the region on
Monday. Models have come into somewhat better agreement on a wave of
low pressure developing on the front Monday evening as it moves off
the new england coast. The front brings with it a chance of showers
Monday afternoon and evening. There is also support aloft from a
strong upper jet across northern new england. Have increased pops to
high chance for now.

The front moves offshore Monday night with the upper trough axis
following on Tuesday. There is good agreement for sprawling high
pressure to settle over the eastern states for the middle week with
ridging building aloft.

Temperatures will be below normal in the 40s on Saturday, but then
will moderate into the 50s on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures drop
back below normal Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
Low pressure approaches from the south today and passes overhead
late tonight.

Easterly winds increase this morning and afternoon. Speeds
increase to 14-20 kt late today and this evening with gusts
20-25 kt. These easterly winds back around to the NE n
overnight. Low level wind shear is expected this evening for
most coastal terminals as a 40 to 50 kt jet moves into the area
at 1-2 kft.

Ceilings are slowing lowering, but could bounce between 2-3 kft
to 3-4 kft today. However, eastern terminals kisp and especially
kgon could remain rain free andVFR through most of the
afternoon.

Steadier light rain likely remains west of nyc this morning,
mainly across nj terminals, and possibly kswf. The rain becomes
steadier later this afternoon and tonight, slowly expanding
east. MVFR ceilings lower to ifr late in the day or this
evening. These lowering conditions persist tonight, with lifr
possible in spots.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi45 min ESE 7 G 11 41°F 41°F1022.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 26 mi45 min E 7 G 12 42°F 42°F1022.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi45 min 42°F 40°F1022.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi45 min ENE 7 G 8.9 41°F 40°F1021.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT7 mi20 minESE 510.00 miOvercast41°F33°F76%1022 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT18 mi22 minN 310.00 miOvercast38°F34°F86%1022.5 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT19 mi22 minN 010.00 miOvercast40°F30°F70%1022.6 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi22 minENE 810.00 miOvercast44°F34°F68%1022 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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S6S6S6S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE4E5
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4NW3CalmNW4W3NW4NW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Haddam, Connecticut
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Haddam
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Thu -- 12:45 AM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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33.12.82.21.50.70-0.4-0.40.21.122.73.12.92.41.81.10.3-0.2-0.4-00.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Hadlyme, Connecticut
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Hadlyme
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Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:42 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:09 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.22.71.91.10.3-0.4-0.6-0.10.81.82.73.23.32.92.21.40.6-0.1-0.5-0.20.61.62.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.