Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Higganum, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:57PM Monday October 23, 2017 9:58 PM EDT (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 8:41PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 833 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am to 6 am edt Tuesday...
.gale watch in effect from 6 am edt Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy drizzle late this evening and overnight. Slight chance of showers after midnight, then chance of showers late.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas building to 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas subsiding to around 2 ft. Showers, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, building to 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 833 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west tonight, slowly crossing the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Higganum, CT
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location: 41.48, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240024
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
824 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A slow moving frontal system approaches tonight, impacting the
region Tuesday into early Wednesday with strong winds gusts and
potentially heavy rain. The frontal system slowly moves east of
the area Wednesday night with brief high pressure following
through the end of the week. A cold front then merges with a
developing coastal low Saturday night into Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Ssw flow aloft tonight, with a passing 500 hpa shortwave
overnight. Have changed to a dry forecast this evening based on
radar trends on upstream obs. Also have slowed down onset of
precipitation over eastern zones based on latest guidance -
which is consistent with idea of best forcing associated with
the shortwave being mainly to the N W of the region.

Currently any thunder is limited to SW va far S WV - so have
scaled but thunder possibilities over far W zones to slight
chance after midnight (with showalter indices progged down to
around 2). As a result, have also removed mention of heavy rain
tonight as well, all models suggest heaviest precipitation holds
off until around after 12z - after 6z) with arrival of low
level jet.

Still could see some patchy drizzle tonight, especially over
eastern zones where will take longer for other than low level
lift to develop. With guidance showing visibilities remaining in
MVFR category, have removed fog from the grids as well.

Temperatures remain well above normal tonight due to clouds and
warm air advection. A model blend was used for temperatures.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Nwp guidance is in good agreement through Tue night.

A vigorous pac shortwave will continue to dig the longwave
trough and gets to the gulf coast by Tuesday night. The first
feature that will drive surface weather is a low level jet with
high pws for this time of year. This will result in periods of
rain, with embedded heavier showers and gusty winds. Some cape
in model profiles suggest few rumbles of thunder on Tuesday.

The second feature which will drive any convective rain will be
the approaching frontal system for Tuesday night, with models
indicating the best potential for widespread rainfall amounts
above 2 inches to be east of new york city. With amplification
of the longwave trough the frontal system is indicated by nwp
models to slow and track very slowly across the region Tue night
in the longitudinally oriented steering flow. Trend with this
update has been to continue to slow the system's progression
through Tue night which would only serve to increase rainfall
amounts for eastern sections.

The following potential hazards Tue tue night:
heavy rain: the slow movement of the front, deep lift, weak
instability, and interaction with an increasingly moist and
tropical airmass (+3 to 4 std) signal potential for multiple
bands of heavy rain as weak waves lift north along the front.

The higher resolution WRF based models continue to indicate the
potential for a localized swath of 3-5 inches. This looks to be
a credible threat based on synoptic pattern, but location timing
is very much uncertain based on front and frontal wave timing
and location. Would also like to see additional support of this
in some other hi-res models. See hydrology section for
associated flooding threat.

Strong winds: a wind advisory is in effect for most of our ct
zones, along with coastal zones in ny. A 45-55 kt 925 hpa llj
moves overhead Tuesday into Tue night. The GFS bufkit soundings
indicating a 12 hr period of southerly winds gusts of 30 to 40
mph, with potential for any low topped convective line S ahead
of the cold front being able to drag down localized 45-55 mph
wind gusts to the surface. SPC has our area in a slight risk
with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Not seeing the best
low level lapse rates and 0-1 km shear, so not all that bullish
on tornadic activity, with later shifts needing to further
inspect.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
A slow moving upper trough will maintain significant moisture
advection in broad, nearly unidirectional southerly flow into at
least the early portion of Wednesday. Primary update to the
extended forecast was to slow the departure of the surface front
and associated precipitation, mainly across portions of
connecticut and long island. Ensemble forecasts still suggest
some uncertainty with regards to end time of precipitation,
though in general rates should taper off from west to east
through the evening. Depending on how quickly rainfall ends,
adequate mixing in the afternoon and evening with modest west-
northwest flow may support a few gusts.

High pressure then builds through the remainder of the week with a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity, though with
some subtle moderation and warming to the air mass as the week
progresses.

Meanwhile, a long wave upper trough will develop and slowly push
eastward, allowing strong moisture advection again into Sunday. The
increasing difluence aloft will aid in the development of a
coastal low, which is then expected to merge with the frontal
system, increasing chances of rain across the area. At the
moment, the exact timing, accumulations and rates of any
precipitation remain uncertain but the system will continue to
be monitored.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
A slow moving cold front will approach the region tonight but
not pass through the region until Tuesday night.

MVFR returns tonight with patchy drizzle developing. Showers
become more widespread from west to east after 06z with MVFR ifr
cigs.

With the approach of a low level jet, showers with embedded
thunder are likely Tuesday. The rain will be heavy at times
accompanied by strong wind gusts, especially near the coast.

Compression and low level wind shear are likely, mainly ssw
45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals.

Se winds increase tonight with gusts becoming more frequent
around 25kt. Some gusts 30-40kt possible after 12z Tuesday,
especially the nyc terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi40 min SSE 5.1 G 8 66°F 65°F1020.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi73 min SSE 12 G 14 67°F 1 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi133 min SSE 12 G 14 66°F 1020.8 hPa64°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 26 mi40 min SSE 8.9 G 12 66°F 66°F1019.5 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi40 min 66°F 64°F1020.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi40 min SE 11 G 14 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT7 mi63 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1021 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT18 mi65 minS 410.00 miOvercast66°F62°F87%1020 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT19 mi65 minS 510.00 miFair66°F63°F90%1020.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi65 minSE 810.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1019.9 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--CalmCalm--Calm--CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmE4SE5SE5
G12
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1 day agoSW564W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW55S85
G11
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW4NW3NW4NW4N3NW5NW5NW7NW5NW4CalmCalmSW64SW6S85SW6SW7SW7SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Haddam, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Haddam
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Mon -- 02:55 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:12 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.92.32.52.31.91.51.10.80.60.611.72.32.732.92.521.410.60.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hadlyme, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hadlyme
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:43 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.32.62.62.31.81.410.70.60.91.62.22.83.13.22.92.41.81.20.70.40.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.