Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM   Moonset 11:42 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405010215;;391430 Fzus51 Kcle 302004 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 404 pm edt Tue apr 30 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-010215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 404 pm edt Tue apr 30 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 57 degrees, off cleveland 50 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 010452 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1252 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the Central Great Lakes tonight. A warm front extending from low pressure over Lake Superior will lift north across the area Wednesday morning, followed by a weakening cold front settling south Wednesday night. High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Region on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:35 PM Update...
No changes needed to the forecast with this update. Overnight low temperatures dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Previous discussion...
Satellite imagery shows a thicker cloud field from near Youngstown into Crawford County Pennsylvania. Can not rule out a sprinkle or light shower in these far eastern areas before subsidence wins out by 5 PM. Beyond that, high pressure builds into the area tonight with skies clearing. Drier air will arrive across the region but still some potential for patchy fog in the eastern counties where there will be less time to mix out dewpoints with nearly calm winds and good radiational cooling.
Lows tonight will be 6-10 degrees cooler than last night.

Upper level shortwave trough will lift into the Upper Midwest tonight, then round the ridge across the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will lift across the area as low pressure reaches Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. Warm advection driven by breezy southwest winds will boost temperatures back into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The breezy conditions will slow the rise in dewpoints ahead of the cold front approaching for the afternoon. Some theta-e advection does occur but mid-level moisture out paces low level moisture and expect a capping inversion to develop and limit thunderstorms from developing. Some mid-level cloud during the morning will be replaced by a scattered cu field during the afternoon. The best chance for an isolated shower would be across far Northeast Ohio or Northwest Pennsylvania heading into Wednesday evening but the potential for this still looks too low to include in the forecast. Record high temperatures for the first of May are in the mid to upper 80s and do not expect to approach those. We dry out again behind this weakening cold front on Wednesday night with lows in the lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The axis of a mid/upper ridge will significantly sharpen across the Great Lakes Thursday in response to a mid/upper shortwave trough ejecting from the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains before closing off into a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of northern Minnesota by Friday. This will set up persistent southwest flow and resultant warm/moist advection as elongated surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes Thursday gradually moves east allowing the associated cold front to slowly progress into the area from the west late Friday and Friday night. Thursday will be dry and very warm with temperatures continuing in the upper 70s/low 80s, but the combination of the surface high over the eastern Great Lakes and weak pressure gradient will cause an afternoon lake breeze to develop, so expect cooler conditions near the lakeshore. Deepening moisture and the slow approach of the cold front will start to gradually bring in chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday from west to east, but it still looks like most of the precip will hold off until Friday night due to little in the way of forcing until the front arrives. Given the strong mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and lifting well NW of the area into Minnesota and Canada, feel that the cold front will be very slow to move through and will likely even become quasi-stationary over eastern Ohio and western PA by Saturday. This gives confidence in the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms occurring Friday night and Saturday.

In terms of severe potential Friday and Friday night, it will be very limited. As mentioned, there is little in the way of forcing for widespread, organized convection Friday, so expecting coverage to be scattered and mainly garden variety Friday afternoon and evening. Forcing increases as the front moves in Friday night, but the best jet dynamics lag well to the NW, and we are also dealing with waning overnight instability (marginal thermodynamics). This environment of weak shear and weak CAPE supports mainly general, garden variety showers and thunderstorms Friday night, although coverage will be greater. Cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds and small hail, but it won't be the norm. If anything, the bigger concern will be locally heavy rainfall from slow moving/training convection. Deep layer flow will be parallel to the gradually pivoting NE to SW oriented cold front, and with seasonably high PWATs and persistent warm/moist advection, will need to watch for localized flooding. The good news is that most areas outside of NW Ohio have dried out over the past 2 weeks, so flash flood guidance is higher.

Highs Friday will warm into the low/mid 80s in most areas with dew points in the low 60s, so it will be quite humid. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 50s to around 60, with upper 50s to low 60s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As mentioned above, the cold front is looking increasingly likely to become quasi-stationary over eastern Ohio and western PA Saturday as the associated stacked/closed low lifts well into Canada west of James Bay, displacing the support well to the NW, and the front also runs into the persistent ridging over the East Coast. This will keep fairly widespread clouds and showers/thunderstorms over the area Saturday, especially in areas east of I-77. Again, will need to watch for localized heavy rainfall and flooding from slow moving or training convection, but widespread impacts are not expected other than it not being the nicest day Saturday.
Uncertainty then increases Sunday into early next week regarding the coverage of convection. A somewhat deeper shortwave trough may swing through the Great Lakes by Sunday with surface ridging trying to build into the Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. This would force the old frontal boundary farther east and bring drier conditions, but there is uncertainty in the pattern evolution among guidance. At this time, have gradually decreasing PoPs Saturday night through Sunday night. What is more clear cut is that heights will quickly start to rebound Monday and Tuesday as broad mid/upper ridging develops over the central and eastern CONUS ahead of broad troughing carving out over the western CONUS. This will lead to an increase in warm/humid conditions again (after a small airmass change this weekend), with increasing chances for convection as an active baroclinic zone sets up nearby.

Highs ranging from the low to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday will warm into the mid/upper 70s Monday and upper 70s/low 80s Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
High pressure across the region will allow for VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds will be light and generally southerly overnight for where they are not calm. Some mid level clouds will enter the region this afternoon with a warm front as the surface high shifts slightly east and return flow enters the region. South to southwest winds may gust to 20 to 25 kts, especially in NW OH, this afternoon. Clearing conditions will return for evening into Thursday and just some high clouds are expected at this point.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
Quiet weather is still expected on the lake through the next 5 days outside of any thunderstorms as the pressure gradients remain weak.
Light and variable winds tonight will turn WSW at 10-15 knots Wednesday before turning light and variable again Wednesday night.
ENE winds then develop Thursday with speeds of 5-15 knots in response to stronger high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes before turning E to SE Thursday night and Friday. Winds should fluctuate between ENE and ESE Friday night and Saturday with speeds of 5-15 knots before finally turning back to SW at 5-10 knots late Saturday night and Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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