Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood Forest, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 6:16 AM CDT (11:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:45PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ744 Expires:201906181515;;673274 Fzus53 Klot 180927 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 427 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-181515- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 427 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cdt this morning...
Today..North winds around 5 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ744


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood Forest, IN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.48, -87.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 klot 180849
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
349 am cdt Tue jun 18 2019

Short term
349 am cdt
through tonight...

for the remainder of the overnight hours and through Monday,
conditions will be relatively quiet though as high cloud cover
pushes off to the east, areas of fog, and some patchy dense fog, is
developing across the region. Views from the coastal web cams show
that the stratus has lowered to the surface. While a dense fog
advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters of lake
michigan, adjacent to nern illinois and nwrn indiana, conditions
will need to be monitored for the potential for the dense fog to
spread inland.

For the today, conditions will be relatively quiet. The main
forecast challenges will be sky cover and the development of a lake
breeze and the impact on temperatures along the lake front. Early
this morning, as the cirrus canopy moves off to the east, some areas
are seeing low stratus and fog develop and there is some uncertainty
as to the areal extend and duration of the stratus. So, will carry
partly to mostly cloudy skies in the general forecast. The sfc
pressure field across the region will be very slack, so winds should
be lgt vrbl to light nely. Weak upper ridging and height rises
aloft, along with partial clearing should allow temperatures to
reach close to seasonal normals with much of the area seeing highs
in the upper 70s to around 80 f. The weak nely flow and then lake
breeze development will limit temperatures along the lake front to
highs only in the upper 50s. A cold front is expected to reach far
nwrn illinois by late this afternoon and then slowly sag sewd across
the region overnight tonight. Latest guidance suggests that there
will be weak forcing aloft even weaker sfc forcing with the
boundary. There will be a chance for some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with the frontal boundary, but
instability should be very limited so any convective activity should
be relatively weak.

Long term
330 am cdt
Wednesday through Monday...

an active pattern returns for this slice of the forecast with
trends indicating such a pattern may continue through the end of
the month. First for a cool Wednesday, further refinement in
details have been made to the rain forecast, with a south of i-80
emphasis in the heaviest rain and thunderstorm coverage
continued. The peak CWA rain coverage timing looks evening-ish
Wednesday. A more classic active summer pattern establishes itself
by later Friday through early next week with episodic
thunderstorms within the region. Some severe weather and flooding
threat is there given pattern recognition and the forecast
parameter space for instability, shear, and moisture at this
distance.

The primary mid-level short wave for Wednesday is located over
colorado this morning. As this shifts east in a quasi-
zonal yet still split jet flow, it will encounter better upper
jet support from both the northern stream and subtropics. A
consistently forecast amplification of the mid to lower-level
features of this wave is shown by Wednesday night as the system
center moves eastward across central illinois into
central northern indiana. The trend in the guidance mean solution
the past 24 hours has been slightly south, highlighted by the
18.00 GFS especially far south. The NAM on the other hand remains
north, deeper, and slower and more concerning for a pronounced
heavy rain threat and even a severe threat in the south. Feel a
mean solution, close to the 18.00 ec captures the more likely
outcome with what is a fairly progressive wave within a more cool
season type track.

Scattered showers and possibly some storms will likely be
occurring during the first half of Wednesday. Our area will be
under the northeast quadrant of this system, with forcing for
ascent more tied to frontogenesis then deep isentropic ascent. As
700-850mb winds turn more southerly with stronger moisture return
occurring into the mid-later afternoon, there should be a fairly
quick increase in rain coverage that would peak during the
evening and potentially overnight. The forcing for ascent will be
assisted by a semi-coupled upper jet structure over the region,
as noted earlier with system amplification during this time. A
quick surge of moisture transport is predicted into the southern
cwa, with precipitable waters forecast to around 1.6 inches. How
far north the heaviest rain shield reaches will be dependent on
the exact track of the system, but do feel at least showers are
likely across the northern half of the area. The instability
wedge aloft will at least make it into the area, but with a moist
column and marginal lapse rates, the MUCAPE profiles are tall and
narrow. So feel thunder coverage will struggle, especially north
of i-80. If a further north solution, such as the NAM were to pan
out, then thunder coverage would be a higher, and a more effective
warm sector may inch into our far southern CWA for a severe
concern. If further south toward the gfs, even the southern cwa
may miss a heavy enough rain for a flood threat.

With the moist advection nose followed by a developing deformation
area, there is increasing likelihood of a 9-15 hour window of
moderate to heavy rain with potential embedded convection in the
southern cwa. Considered a flash flood watch for the far south
given the antecedent regional high soil moisture. For now the
collaborative decision was a hydrologic outlook (esf) for this
area to highlight awareness on top of other messaging.

As for temperatures Wednesday, increasing northeast winds under a
thickening cloud canopy will probably support cooling in the
afternoon. Given the current forecast regime, temperatures by mid
to late afternoon in lake adjacent areas would be falling
into the upper 50s. Similar to this past Sunday, the wind push
coming down the lake may be a little stronger and lead to a
higher rip current risk by late in the day into Thursday morning.

This system will depart the area Thursday morning with northerly
winds in place that likely will be breezy in the morning.

Depending on timing of the clearing, highs in lake adjacent
counties are forecast to struggle to climb out of the 60s.

A longwave trough is then forecast over the western conus,
comprised of a slow-moving northern rockies closed low. The
forcing ahead of this will support multiple surface lows Friday
through at least Sunday, tracking northeast across the
plains midwest. The low-level mass response ahead of this
persisting for several days should draw ample moisture northward
too, with near 70 dew points forecast by a guidance blend by
Saturday. The pattern on Friday afternoon into Friday night does
indicate some potential for robust convection upstream that
could track into the area depending on how quickly progressing the
instability and moisture return is. Saturday looks potentially
quite active in the corn belt to upper midwest region, but as is
typical with an active pattern, much will be modulated on previous
rounds of convection. Also it still is five days out so plenty of
specifics will be ironed out over time and major shifts in timing
of convection certainly may occur. Will continue noting the active
weather pattern in hazardous weather outlook and start in weather
story graphics. As for temperatures, there will be some influence
from convection, but more summer-like nighttime lows appear
likely if not too rain-cooled, and sustained highs into the 80s
are more favored.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

primary forecast for the overnight hours will be lowering stratus
and fog development. Main concern for the daytime hours will be
timing of improvement of CIGS vis as well as lake breeze
development and timing of a wind shift at the chicago area
terminals.

Cigs have quickly trended down to ifr at ord mdw and lifr at gyy.

Latest satellite imagery shows the low stratus gradually spreading
inland and it may reach dpa as well, though timing there is still
uncertain and the latest high res guidance is not handling the
status as well as the past couple nights. Based more on
persistence, have trended CIGS a little lower than the previous
update and it is possible that CIGS at ord mdw could drop to 300
ft before daybreak. Fog trends are also uncertain, but based on
observations from lake front web cams indicating only low stratus
and little visibility restriction, and the extent of high cloud
over the area, it's possible that the dense fog may be confined to
gyy as far as the terminals are concerned and may be more patchy
elsewhere, favoring low-lying, sheltered locations.

With a very weak pressure gradient over the region, expect that
winds should be mainly light and variable overnight and well into
the daytime hours. This weak gradient should help set up a lake
breeze and expect it to push inland through ord mdw by late
afternoon, though with a synoptically northeast wind direction,
the lake breeze may be more of a surge to 8-9 kt and a slight
direction shift from nely to enely-ely.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory... Nearshore waters
until 10 am Tuesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
follow us on facebook... Twitter... And youtube at:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 12 mi37 min N 2.9 G 4.1 55°F 1015.6 hPa
45170 20 mi17 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 58°F1 ft52°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 20 mi27 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 55°F 53°F
JAKI2 32 mi77 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 56°F
CNII2 37 mi17 min NNE 4.1 G 6 55°F 54°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi27 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 54°F
OKSI2 40 mi77 min E 1.9 G 1.9 57°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 43 mi17 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 59°F 61°F1 ft1015.2 hPa54°F
FSTI2 45 mi77 min ENE 1.9 56°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last
24hr
NW6
G10
N5
G8
N6
G9
N7
NW9
G13
N8
G11
N5
G11
N7
G11
N8
N8
G11
N10
N7
N7
N8
N5
N4
N5
NE4
NE4
NE3
N2
N2
N1
N2
1 day
ago
W1
SW3
W2
NW1
N6
NW7
G12
N7
N11
G16
NW9
G18
N11
G17
NW8
G11
NW12
G17
NW11
G17
NW11
G17
NW8
NW6
G12
NW4
G8
NW6
G10
NW9
G12
N7
G10
N3
G7
NW5
G8
NW5
NW8
G11
2 days
ago
S10
G15
S10
G15
S11
G14
S8
G13
S8
G13
S9
G14
S12
G17
S9
G12
S4
SW3
SE3
S4
SE3
S2
NE2
NW9
G13
N7
G12
N8
G11
N3
N4
N7
NW4
G7
N6
G10
N4
G8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN6 mi21 minN 08.00 miOvercast60°F55°F84%1014.6 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi32 minN 30.50 miFog57°F57°F100%1015.6 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN22 mi22 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F44°F67%1015.2 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL23 mi42 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist56°F56°F100%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
Last 24hrCalmN3Calm4N3N44NE46N6N7N7NW6N5N5N4N5N4N3N3N4N5N5Calm
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days agoS11
G19
SW12
G20
SW14
G21
SW13
G18
SW12
G23
SW12
G19
------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.