Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Woods Hole, MA
May 14, 2024 3:36 PM EDT (19:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:22 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 11:09 AM Moonset 1:32 AM |
ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 104 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 foot at 7 seconds.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 6 seconds and se 1 foot at 12 seconds.
Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 11 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thu - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 10 seconds and E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 9 seconds and ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of rain.
Fri and Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat and Sat night - NE winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 309 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters -
FXUS61 KBOX 141845 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 245 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and mainly dry today with some uncertainty regarding how mild Wednesday will be. Heading into a cloudier and unsettled weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend, as a series of slow-moving upper level disturbances move through Southern New England. While it is not likely to be raining the entire period, at least hit or miss showers can't be ruled out at any time. Temperatures for late in the week into the weekend trend slightly cooler than normal on high temperatures and milder than normal on the lows.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
2 PM Update:
Gorgeous spring weather in progress across SNE with abundant sunshine and temps in the 70s to as warm as 81 at BDL and 80 at BAF/CEF/FIT at 2 pm! Modest pressure gradient yielding SSW winds gusting up to 25 mph. Dew points in the 50s helping to provide a mild feel to the airmass. Previous forecast captures these details nicely, therefore no changes to earlier forecast.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Showers remain possible for western MA and CT tonight but weak mid level height rises have dampened the signal overnight for any widespread precip. While dewpoint depressions will be quite small, southerly flow overnight should remain brisk enough, between 5-10kt, to keep widespread fog at bay. Lows will bottom out in the mid to even upper 50s region wide, coolest across the Cape.
Wednesday's forecast proves to be a bit tricky as low pressure emerges off the mid-Atlantic coast. Overnight guidance took a significant step in the "drier and warmer" direction with low pressure remaining suppressed to our south for much of the day. With mid level ridge still in place, and 925mb temperatures still mild between 13-15C, the temperature forecast will be highly dependent on cloud cover and our mixing potential. Should sunshine break out for a good portion of the morning, it's very possible temps soar into the mid 70s region wide. With that said, anticipating cloud cover will be most robust across the CT River Valley, in part due to an eastward advancing weak boundary, so the warmest temperatures in our region will be across the Merrimack River Valley and across SE MA.
Given the rather sudden shift in guidance, heavily weighted the temperatures forecast using NBM, but later forecasters may choose a more aggressive temperatures forecast should a sunnier trend continue. In order to derive warmer temperatures, also trended the PoP and Sky cover forecast in a more favorable (clearer and drier)
direction that supports deeper mixing.
Shower chances will increase late Wednesday from south to north as the precipitation shield associated with the low is able push across southern RI and the Cape. Again utilized NBM for the QPF forecast.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights:
* Unsettled late week into the weekend, although below-average confidence in temps and rain chances in this period.
* Won't be raining the whole time, with Fri offering some potential for drier weather, but generally cloudy with periods of at least possible showers.
* Seasonable to slightly cooler than normal highs, with milder nighttime lows.
Details:
Global ensembles point to a generally unsettled and slow-evolving pattern through a large portion of this forecast period. Southern New England's weather looks to be governed by a weakening/filling upper low detached from the westerlies through late in the week, then right on its heels is another shortwave disturbance that is poised to approach and cross our area around the weekend.
Unfortunately that's really all that can be said as there is quite a bit of uncertainty as far as the location and progression of these two trough features; thus, below-average forecast confidence in temps, PoP and rain amts in light of this uncertainty in mass field details. Took a pretty broad-stroked brush as far the forecast goes in this period; while most days have some mentionable PoP, it there will likely be periods of dry weather in between and it is not likely we're looking at significant rain amts. With a cloudier-than- not forecast period and a few days of onshore breezes leading to shallower mixing depths, highs were seasonable or slightly cooler than normal and lows were milder than normal.
Wednesday Night through Friday:
Upper low initially over the OH Valley early Wed night progresses slowly offshore of the NJ coast and deamplifying as it does so; this puts SNE on the northern end of the upper-level circulation. These signals are not typically conducive to significant precip, with the better chances for steadier light rains on Thurs and mainly south of the Mass Pike. I do think the 00z GFS depiction regarding the eastward progression is still too progressive and leaned somewhat toward the slower ECMWF/GEM evolution. With E/SE onshore flow, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coasts with highs well into the 60s; however 850 mb temps are quite warm (around +8 to +10C) and would favor highs several degrees warmer if we can fully mix, but I just don't see that happening.
With weakening shortwave ridge axis poking NE into SNE around Fri, that could be a relatively drier day with lower (around 15-20%) PoP indicated for Fri. Highs Fri could reach into the lower to mid 70s in the CT Valley and western MA, with cooler 60s readings the further east one goes.
The Weekend into Monday:
This latter period perhaps is the most uncertain with guidance struggling with poor congruence both across modeling systems but also from run-to-run. Interaction, if any, between the slowly- exiting late-weekday upper low and an approaching trough from the OH/TN Valleys probably is contributing to that run-to-run disparity.
Opted to keep the forecast with a mention of PoP along with a considerable degree of cloud cover, but that will need to be better defined once models show better agreement in timing and placement of key features. While there are some solutions which indicate a dry weekend and favor better rain chances on Monday, it's probably too hasty to lock in that drier outcome just yet.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Thru 00z...high confidence.
VFR, dry weather and gusty SSW winds 15-25 kt.
After 00z...moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on timing and how far east MVFR cigs track tonight.
VFR cloud bases along with SSW winds diminishing and becoming south. Isolated to widely scattered showers across CT into western-central MA. These showers likely accompanied by MVFR cigs. Otherwise, mainly dry runways for RI and eastern MA.
Wednesday...moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on coverage of MVFR cigs and areal coverage of showers.
Light south winds with widespread VFR cloud bases. Isolated showers with marginal MVFR/VFR cigs across CT into western MA.
Wednesday night...moderate confidence.
Light S-SE winds become east overnight. VFR conditions become MVFR overnight, as rain shield comes onshore to the south coast of CT/RI/MA. Forecast uncertainty in how far north this rain shield tracks overnight.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Gusty SSW winds 15-25 kt slowly slacken with sunset.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Gusty SSW winds 15-25 kt diminish with sunset.
Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Update: 3 AM
Through Wednesday....
S/SW winds persist through Tuesday night before shifting to the SE Wednesday afternoon. Gusts to 25kt possible this afternoon for our far NE waters, though the short fused and small zonal coverage nature of the conditions has prompted us to hold off on a Small Craft Advisory between 15-03Z this evening.
Generally dry on today with isolated shower chances for the eastern waters this morning. Shower chances increase for the southern waters late Wednesday as low pressure creeps north from the mid- Atlantic coast.
Outlook /Wednesday Night
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 245 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and mainly dry today with some uncertainty regarding how mild Wednesday will be. Heading into a cloudier and unsettled weather pattern for late in the week into the weekend, as a series of slow-moving upper level disturbances move through Southern New England. While it is not likely to be raining the entire period, at least hit or miss showers can't be ruled out at any time. Temperatures for late in the week into the weekend trend slightly cooler than normal on high temperatures and milder than normal on the lows.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
2 PM Update:
Gorgeous spring weather in progress across SNE with abundant sunshine and temps in the 70s to as warm as 81 at BDL and 80 at BAF/CEF/FIT at 2 pm! Modest pressure gradient yielding SSW winds gusting up to 25 mph. Dew points in the 50s helping to provide a mild feel to the airmass. Previous forecast captures these details nicely, therefore no changes to earlier forecast.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Showers remain possible for western MA and CT tonight but weak mid level height rises have dampened the signal overnight for any widespread precip. While dewpoint depressions will be quite small, southerly flow overnight should remain brisk enough, between 5-10kt, to keep widespread fog at bay. Lows will bottom out in the mid to even upper 50s region wide, coolest across the Cape.
Wednesday's forecast proves to be a bit tricky as low pressure emerges off the mid-Atlantic coast. Overnight guidance took a significant step in the "drier and warmer" direction with low pressure remaining suppressed to our south for much of the day. With mid level ridge still in place, and 925mb temperatures still mild between 13-15C, the temperature forecast will be highly dependent on cloud cover and our mixing potential. Should sunshine break out for a good portion of the morning, it's very possible temps soar into the mid 70s region wide. With that said, anticipating cloud cover will be most robust across the CT River Valley, in part due to an eastward advancing weak boundary, so the warmest temperatures in our region will be across the Merrimack River Valley and across SE MA.
Given the rather sudden shift in guidance, heavily weighted the temperatures forecast using NBM, but later forecasters may choose a more aggressive temperatures forecast should a sunnier trend continue. In order to derive warmer temperatures, also trended the PoP and Sky cover forecast in a more favorable (clearer and drier)
direction that supports deeper mixing.
Shower chances will increase late Wednesday from south to north as the precipitation shield associated with the low is able push across southern RI and the Cape. Again utilized NBM for the QPF forecast.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights:
* Unsettled late week into the weekend, although below-average confidence in temps and rain chances in this period.
* Won't be raining the whole time, with Fri offering some potential for drier weather, but generally cloudy with periods of at least possible showers.
* Seasonable to slightly cooler than normal highs, with milder nighttime lows.
Details:
Global ensembles point to a generally unsettled and slow-evolving pattern through a large portion of this forecast period. Southern New England's weather looks to be governed by a weakening/filling upper low detached from the westerlies through late in the week, then right on its heels is another shortwave disturbance that is poised to approach and cross our area around the weekend.
Unfortunately that's really all that can be said as there is quite a bit of uncertainty as far as the location and progression of these two trough features; thus, below-average forecast confidence in temps, PoP and rain amts in light of this uncertainty in mass field details. Took a pretty broad-stroked brush as far the forecast goes in this period; while most days have some mentionable PoP, it there will likely be periods of dry weather in between and it is not likely we're looking at significant rain amts. With a cloudier-than- not forecast period and a few days of onshore breezes leading to shallower mixing depths, highs were seasonable or slightly cooler than normal and lows were milder than normal.
Wednesday Night through Friday:
Upper low initially over the OH Valley early Wed night progresses slowly offshore of the NJ coast and deamplifying as it does so; this puts SNE on the northern end of the upper-level circulation. These signals are not typically conducive to significant precip, with the better chances for steadier light rains on Thurs and mainly south of the Mass Pike. I do think the 00z GFS depiction regarding the eastward progression is still too progressive and leaned somewhat toward the slower ECMWF/GEM evolution. With E/SE onshore flow, highs in the upper 50s to low 60s near the coasts with highs well into the 60s; however 850 mb temps are quite warm (around +8 to +10C) and would favor highs several degrees warmer if we can fully mix, but I just don't see that happening.
With weakening shortwave ridge axis poking NE into SNE around Fri, that could be a relatively drier day with lower (around 15-20%) PoP indicated for Fri. Highs Fri could reach into the lower to mid 70s in the CT Valley and western MA, with cooler 60s readings the further east one goes.
The Weekend into Monday:
This latter period perhaps is the most uncertain with guidance struggling with poor congruence both across modeling systems but also from run-to-run. Interaction, if any, between the slowly- exiting late-weekday upper low and an approaching trough from the OH/TN Valleys probably is contributing to that run-to-run disparity.
Opted to keep the forecast with a mention of PoP along with a considerable degree of cloud cover, but that will need to be better defined once models show better agreement in timing and placement of key features. While there are some solutions which indicate a dry weekend and favor better rain chances on Monday, it's probably too hasty to lock in that drier outcome just yet.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Thru 00z...high confidence.
VFR, dry weather and gusty SSW winds 15-25 kt.
After 00z...moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on timing and how far east MVFR cigs track tonight.
VFR cloud bases along with SSW winds diminishing and becoming south. Isolated to widely scattered showers across CT into western-central MA. These showers likely accompanied by MVFR cigs. Otherwise, mainly dry runways for RI and eastern MA.
Wednesday...moderate confidence. Some uncertainty on coverage of MVFR cigs and areal coverage of showers.
Light south winds with widespread VFR cloud bases. Isolated showers with marginal MVFR/VFR cigs across CT into western MA.
Wednesday night...moderate confidence.
Light S-SE winds become east overnight. VFR conditions become MVFR overnight, as rain shield comes onshore to the south coast of CT/RI/MA. Forecast uncertainty in how far north this rain shield tracks overnight.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Gusty SSW winds 15-25 kt slowly slacken with sunset.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Gusty SSW winds 15-25 kt diminish with sunset.
Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Update: 3 AM
Through Wednesday....
S/SW winds persist through Tuesday night before shifting to the SE Wednesday afternoon. Gusts to 25kt possible this afternoon for our far NE waters, though the short fused and small zonal coverage nature of the conditions has prompted us to hold off on a Small Craft Advisory between 15-03Z this evening.
Generally dry on today with isolated shower chances for the eastern waters this morning. Shower chances increase for the southern waters late Wednesday as low pressure creeps north from the mid- Atlantic coast.
Outlook /Wednesday Night
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMVY MARTHA'S VINEYARD,MA | 11 sm | 43 min | S 15G23 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 54°F | 72% | 30.04 | |
| KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA | 17 sm | 43 min | SSW 15G23 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 54°F | 64% | 30.00 | |
| KFMH CAPE COD COAST GUARD AIR STATION,MA | 18 sm | 40 min | SW 17G26 | 9 sm | Clear | 68°F | 48°F | 49% | 30.03 |
Kettle Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT 3.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT 0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM EDT 3.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT 0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM EDT 3.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT 0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:54 PM EDT 3.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT 0.96 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kettle Cove, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.2 |
| 1 am |
| 3.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Quicks Hole (middle)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT 2.08 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:02 AM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT 2.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:58 PM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:32 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT 2.08 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:02 AM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:24 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM EDT -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:15 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT 2.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:58 PM EDT -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:04 PM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Quicks Hole (middle), Massachusetts Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1.7 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| -1.6 |
| 6 am |
| -2.1 |
| 7 am |
| -2.1 |
| 8 am |
| -1.7 |
| 9 am |
| -1.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Boston, MA,
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