Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:06 AM   Moonset 8:39 PM

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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 257 Am Pdt Wed May 8 2024
.gale warning in effect through late tonight - .
Today - N winds 20 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves N 10 ft at 9 seconds - .and nw 6 ft at 13 seconds. Tonight - N winds 20 to 30 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves N 12 ft at 10 seconds - .and nw 4 ft at 12 seconds. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves N 8 ft at 8 seconds. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 11 seconds. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 11 seconds. Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 8 seconds - .and nw 3 ft at 11 seconds. Sun - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 7 seconds.

PZZ400 257 Am Pdt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Northerlies will remain elevated at gale force in the northern and southern waters through Thursday morning. Northerly seas ramp up with the increasing winds, peaking over 15 ft at 11 seconds by tonight. Winds then quickly weaken by the end of the work week.

FXUS66 KMFR 081047 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 347 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

DISCUSSION

Temperatures aren't dropping much this morning as dewpoints stay in the mid 30's across a lot of valleys west of the Cascades. The exception appears to be the Scott Valley with temperatures currently around 32 to 34 with dewpoints in the upper 20's. Other than the patchy freezing conditions across the forecast area this morning, concerns are minimal given the current temperatures.

High temperatures will trend about 10 to 15 degrees higher today compared to Tuesday as high pressure continues to build over southern Oregon and northern California. A thermal trough will strengthen along the southern Oregon coastline this morning with some north east flow developing along the coastal range. Brookings and Somes Bar in south western Siskiyou County will be the warm spots later today with both pushing into mid 70's with Somes Bar potentially hitting the 80's. Overall, this is pretty typical for temperatures this time of year as Medford's average high is 72.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer by Thursday as high pressure strengthens off the coast and winds becomes more widespread out of the east. This should result in further bump in temperatures with the most notable jump around Roseburg and North Bend with an anticipated high of 83 and 75 degrees respectively on Thursday. This warm up will push highs well above their normals for this time of year.

The thermal trough will move farther inland on Friday with sea level pressure dropping about 10 mb east of the Cascades and the 1000-500 mb thickness' rising over locations farther to the east as well. These days are usually some pretty warm days and the temperature forecast shows this with some highs potentially hitting 90 degrees. The NBM gives Medford a 15% chance of hitting 90 and Roseburg a 40% chance of hitting 90 on Friday. Not much will change on Saturday, although the temperatures might trend down a degree or two. It's worth noting that the NWS' heat risk algorithm is showing an elevated heat risk for populated areas on Saturday, perhaps due to the unusually warm high temperatures for this time of year. Given that low temperatures are falling into the mid 50's, this elevated risk seems overdone.

Towards the start of next week, the NBM is predicting a 5% chance of precipitation across sections of northern California as a weak short wave could be moving through around Sunday evening or Monday evening. To elevate the thunderstorm threat, we pushed the probability of precipitation higher for those times. Any shortwave this time of year will have that threat of kicking off thunderstorms around the forecast area.

Towards the middle of next week it appears high pressure will still remains in control. Temperatures have a higher probability being warmer than normal versus cooler than normal for the middle of May.

-Smith



AVIATION
08/06Z TAFs...Expect VFR to prevail tonight through Wednesday, though areas of MVFR are possible in portions of the Umpqua Basin and Coquille Basin overnight into Wednesday morning.
These shouldn't last much longer than 16 or 17Z Wednesday morning.
Expect gusty north to northeast winds again Wednesday afternoon, peaking 20 to 25 kt at Roseburg/Klamath Falls and around 30 kt at North Bend, easing during the mid-late evening. -Spilde

MARINE
Updated 215 AM Wednesday, May 8, 2024...A thermal trough will expand strong north winds and steep to very steep seas northward today. Worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco with gales and very steep, wind-driven seas this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Gusty north winds and very steep seas are expected north of Cape Blanco. Current models show a high chance (55 to 100%) for north gales from Cape Blanco southward, highest (70 to 100%) beyond 5 nm from shore south of Gold Beach. The thermal trough will weaken Thursday, but lingering steep to very steep seas are possible. Lighter winds and seas expected Friday into the weekend. - Spilde/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Freeze Warning until 10 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024-026.

CA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM PDT this morning for CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

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Crescent City
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Wed -- 06:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM PDT     -1.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:12 PM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 PM PDT     2.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:36 AM PDT     -1.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:10 PM PDT     5.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM PDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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Medford, OR,