Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Happy Camp, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 11:02 AM PST (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 830 Am Pst Tue Dec 18 2018
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds...and W 13 ft at 14 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves sw 2 ft at 6 seconds...and W 21 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves W 17 ft at 16 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Thu..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves sw 6 ft at 7 seconds...and W 12 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves W 14 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds...and nw 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves W 8 ft at 19 seconds.
PZZ400 830 Am Pst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for northern california waters..Gale force winds and a large westerly swell will continue to generate hazardous seas through early this afternoon. Winds and steeper seas will begin to subside later today, but the persistent west swell will maintain hazardous ocean conditions through the end of the week. In addition, another cold front will bring gusty south winds to the waters Thursday and again over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Happy Camp, CA
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location: 41.5, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 181728
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
928 am pst Tue dec 18 2018

Discussion Updates were made earlier to bump up the start time
of the wind headlines east of the cascades. The front is quicker
and earlier to move through than models previously indicated, and
winds picked up across the area earlier than thought. Other
updates were made through this afternoon to account for the
earlier faster movement of the front as well.

Periods of heavy rain will continue through early this afternoon,
transitioning to showers that will taper off this evening and
overnight. Given the faster progression of the front, rainfall
rates haven't been as high as originally thought. However, more
heavy rain is expected so we'll leave the flash flood watch for
the chetco klondike burn scars in place through at least this
afternoon and analyze this further for the afternoon package.

Strong gusty winds will also continue through this afternoon,
winding down later this evening. So far, the strongest wind gusts
have been in the 50 to 60 mph range along the coast, east of the
cascades and in the shasta valley near the weed airport. Again
with the faster progression of the front, we'll be evaluating when
wind the headlines will need to come down this afternoon.

Once this front moves through this afternoon, ridging will briefly
build in tonight and into Wednesday. There'll be a break in
between systems for Wednesday and the next front is expected
Thursday. There are still some timing differences on when this
front arrives, but overall it looks weaker than today's front. For
more details on this, see the previous discussion below. Br-y

Aviation For the 18 12z tafs... Conditions will continue to
deteriorate this morning as a front pushes onshore. Most west side
locations should see heavy rain with gusty winds and MVFR ifr
ceilings. The exception will be at kmfr where downsloping winds will
keepVFR conditions in place through late this morning. Conditions
will also remainVFR on the east side until rain arrives later
today.

At north bend, roseburg, and medford, winds at the surface will be
much lower than just above the ground. Wind speeds at 1500-2000 agl
will be in the 35-50 kt range inland from the coast, but up to 65 kt
along the coast. This will result in turbulence and low level wind
shear, so expect some bumpy rides with arrivals and departures
through this morning.

Conditions will improve once the front passes this evening, but some
valley locations, particularly along the coats and in the umpqua,
may see fog or low stratus move in overnight. -bpn

Marine Updated 850 am pst Monday 17 december 2018... The front is
moving into the marine waters. Winds over the northern part of the
waters have shifted southwest and are gradually decreasing below
gales. Since the front has not moved completely through, gales are
still ongoing over the southern waters. For example buoy 27 is still
showing gales. Winds are expected to shift southwest and gradually
decrease early this afternoon. Even though winds will decrease, seas
will remain hazardous due to a heavy west swell and wind driven
seas. The combination of the two will produce very steep and
hazardous seas, and extremely dangerous bar and surf conditions.

Winds will briefly diminish tonight through Wednesday but seas will
remain high to very high through mid-week. Yet another cold front
with south gales is expected late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Seas will decrease slightly tonight into Tuesday, then another heavy
swell train will arrive Wednesday. Even with the brief improvement,
conditions will still be dangerous at bar crossings and the surf
zone due to strong currents and breaking waves.

The active pattern is expected to continue into early next week.

-bpn petrucelli

Prev discussion issued 430 am pst Tue dec 18 2018
discussion... Very windy conditions have been occurring overnight
with winds possibly knocking out power at CAPE blanco after gusts
in the 80 mph range. With the extreme conditions in the coastal
waters with a combination of very high wind waves and very high
westerly swell, buoy 15 has not reported since around 10 pm. The
heaviest bands of precipitation are working southeast and should
be moving into the medford area shortly. Looking at satellite
precipitable water estimates, as the heaviest bands move in the
south coast and the south coastal ranges could see precipitation
rates of around a half an inch per hours at times this morning in
this area as the front end of the atmospheric river fire hose is
pointed directly at that area. With this the continued possibility
of debris flow and mud slides continues on burn scars in that
area. As the day progresses the nose of the 170 kt jet lifts north
of the region into northern oregon, and the strong winds ahead of
the front gradually shift east, over the east side later this
morning. The precipitation decreases into the afternoon as the
axis of the jet begins to shift into washington state and a weak
ridge begins to build over the pacific northwest.

This upper ridge will bring a lull in the action tonight into
Wednesday ahead of the next system that moves into the region
Thursday morning as the upper ridge moves east and a 110 kt sub
jet moves onto the coast ahead of the upper trough and the main sw
to NE aligned 160 kt jet farther offshore. This system is also
indicating as a weaker and briefer atmospheric river event that
will bring another round of heavy rain to the south coast and
southern coastal ranges, with amounts not as high as as the
current system. Sven
aviation... For the 18 12z tafs... Conditions will continue to
deteriorate this morning as a front pushes onshore. Most west side
locations should see heavy rain with gusty winds and MVFR ifr
ceilings. The exception will be at kmfr where downsloping winds will
keepVFR conditions in place through late this morning. Conditions
will also remainVFR on the east side until rain arrives later
today.

At north bend, roseburg, and medford, winds at the surface will be
much lower than just above the ground. Wind speeds at 1500-2000 agl
will be in the 35-50 kt range inland from the coast, but up to 65 kt
along the coast. This will result in turbulence and low level wind
shear, so expect some bumpy rides with arrivals and departures
through this morning.

Conditions will improve once the front passes this evening, but some
valley locations, particularly along the coats and in the umpqua,
may see fog or low stratus move in overnight. -bpn
marine... Updated 200 pm pst Monday 17 december 2018... South gales
are ongoing this morning, and will likely persist until early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, heavy west swell and very high wind driven
seas are combining to produce very steep and hazardous seas, and
extremely dangerous bar and surf conditions continue. Winds
will briefly diminish Tuesday night through Wednesday but seas will
remain high to very high through mid-week. Yet another cold front
with south gales is expected late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Seas will decrease slightly tonight into Tuesday, then another heavy
swell train will arrive Wednesday. Even with the brief improvement,
conditions will still be dangerous at bar crossings and the surf
zone due to strong currents and breaking waves.

The active pattern is expected to continue into early next week.

-bpn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High wind warning until 10 pm pst this evening for orz030-031.

Wind advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for orz029>031.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst this morning for orz027.

High wind warning until 4 pm pst this afternoon for orz021-022.

Wind advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for orz023-024.

Flash flood watch through this evening for orz022-024.

High surf warning until 10 pm pst Wednesday for orz021-022.

Ca... High wind warning until 10 pm pst this evening for caz085.

Wind advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for caz084-085.

Wind advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning until 4 pm pst this afternoon for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm pst
Wednesday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Mnf sbn bpn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 47 mi39 min S 28 G 33 55°F 53°F1019.8 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 60 mi33 min S 27 G 35 55°F 55°F1019.7 hPa55°F
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 68 mi33 min 55°F16 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA51 mi70 minS 1810.00 miLight Rain and Breezy50°F39°F66%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3SW4S15S14S14S14S15S10S13S16S15S12S16S17S20
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S8CalmSE3W3E5CalmCalmN5NE5NE3CalmN4E5N4CalmSE5CalmW3NE5CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:11 AM PST     2.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:54 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:44 AM PST     7.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 PM PST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:49 PM PST     5.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.42.63.24.25.36.377.16.75.74.43.121.31.21.62.53.54.455.24.94.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:12 AM PST     2.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:54 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM PST     7.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 PM PST     1.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:50 PM PST     5.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.52.63.24.25.36.377.16.75.74.43.121.31.21.62.53.54.455.24.94.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.