Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 12:53 PM

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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 825 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - E winds 5 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 8 seconds. Slight chance of rain. Fri night - SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves W 3 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Sat - NW winds 10 kt. Waves W 5 ft at 8 seconds. Rain likely, slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 5 ft at 9 seconds. Slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 4 ft at 9 seconds - .and nw 5 ft at 14 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds - .and nw 5 ft at 12 seconds. Tue - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 7 seconds - .and nw 7 ft at 15 seconds.

PZZ400 825 Pm Pdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - SEas and winds trend weaker through Friday, with southerly winds building ahead of a progressive front moving through the region Friday night through Saturday. Northerlies will resume on Saturday, although waves will remain below 10 feet into early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 022353 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 453 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION
A few showers linger this afternoon along and east of the Cascades, but these will continue to dissipate and move east, likely exiting the area this evening. Beginning tonight, ridging aloft will dry the area out and make for mostly clear skies through Friday morning. With those clear skies, the passage of the cold front will allow temperatures tonight to be cooler than last night, but lows should still stay above freezing for all areas west of the Cascades.

The next system arrives at the coast Friday, with precipitation beginning at the coast in the afternoon, then spreading to the Cascades by evening, and the rest of the area overnight. Similar to the frontal system early this morning, this front will move in from the west, resulting in much less downsloping for western valleys than in other patterns. Precipitable water associated with this front, however, will be greater with a stronger inflow of moisture, resulting in greater precipitation amounts. Rain amounts of a half inch or more are almost guaranteed for almost all areas in southern Oregon and far northern California, with up to 2 or even 3 inches of rain possible along the coast. Winds will not be a primary concern with this system, with model fields not showing significant mid-level wind speeds for most of the area. However, there is some indication that gusty winds will develop over eastern Modoc and Lake counties as the front swings through Saturday afternoon.

Snow levels will initially be quite high at the beginning of the event, rising to above 7,000 feet, before decreasing overnight Friday into Saturday to 3,000 to 4,000 feet as the cold front passes and precipitation becomes more intermittent/showery. This will result in snow lowering down to area passes, including those over the Cascades on Hwys 140 and 138 (where we're expecting 3-6 inches early Saturday through early Sunday) and Siskiyou Summit on I-5 (likely less than an inch). As road surfaces are still quite warm, a lot of this will melt on paved surfaces, but lower visibilities could still make travel over the mountains difficult at times.

Showery, on-and-off again precipitation continues late Saturday into Sunday as low pressure lingers aloft. Shower coverage will shrink and taper off through the day Sunday as the low moves SE and another transient ridge moves into the area. Another front moves in Monday, this one much weaker with the majority of light to moderate precip falling over northwest portions of the region.
Snow levels will generally be 4,000 to 5,000 feet. Onshore flow and lingering moisture will lead to light, scattered showers continuing into Tuesday.

Mid to late next week, large scale ridging returns to the area, and we will transition to a more warm-season type pattern with temperatures warming to above normal for early May, and very little, if any, chance for precipitation. Also, this pattern would suggest a thermal trough developing along the coast, with a Chetco Effect keeping the area around Brookings warm. The general east flow across the entire area would also support strong overnight inversions, but given how late we are in the season, valley fog is not likely to develop. -BPN/CSP


AVIATION
03/00Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore, MVFR ceilings are expected to persist through this evening north of Port Orford with VFR ceilings south of there. It's possible cloud cover could dissipate resulting in VFR ceilings at North Bend after 4-5z, but confidence is not high enough to include improving conditions.
However, we'll monitor the evolution of the cloud cover this evening updates to the North Bend TAF will be made if there's sufficient evidence to suggest ceilings will improve. A front will push towards the coast Friday afternoon. Any improvement to the ceilings will follow with lowering ceilings in the afternoon to at least MVFR with local IFR ceilings late in the afternoon as the front moves onshore.
Winds will pick up at North Bend, but were not expecting strong winds.

Inland west of the Cascades. VFR ceilings will continue through the TAF period, but it will be a close call north of the Umpqua Divide, including Roseburg towards the end of the TAF period. -Petrucelli

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Thursday, May 2, 2024...Fresh northwest swell will persist through tonight. Then a front moves across the waters Friday with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. South winds will increase Friday morning and peak in the afternoon. Steep seas dominated by fresh west swell are expected Friday night into Saturday morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) is expected on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday and there will be continued periods of rain showers (60%-80% chance). Another front arrives on Monday with a potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas Monday night into Tuesday.

-CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
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Thu -- 01:00 AM PDT     3.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM PDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM PDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

Crescent City
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Thu -- 12:59 AM PDT     3.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:31 AM PDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:37 PM PDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:32 PM PDT     5.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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