Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Colchester, CT

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Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:28PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:05AMMoonset 1:03PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 736 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt late this evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms until early morning. Patchy dense fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 736 Pm Edt Tue Jun 25 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across the waters tonight. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Wednesday before giving way to another cold front. High pressure builds again late this week. A weak cold front then passes through Saturday, followed by a stronger cold front Sunday, with a return to high pressure thereafter.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colchester, CT
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location: 41.51, -72.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252347
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
747 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves across the region tonight. Weak high
pressure briefly builds in Wednesday before giving way to
another cold front Wednesday night. Thereafter, high pressure
will dominate into the late week, though weak surface troughs
will develop each afternoon across the interior. A weak cold
front then passes through Saturday, followed by a stronger cold
front Sunday, with a return to high pressure thereafter.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Forecast on track this evening as a cold front continues to move
across the forecast area. Most of the precipitation has come to
an end, with just the potential for a few leftover isolated
showers.

Otherwise, the pressure gradient is weak and winds will switch
to a more northerly direction behind the front.

Aloft, upper level low moves northward towards hudson bay with
an associated jet streak moving in. Left front quad will enable
for extra lift this evening. A few models such as the hrrr and
nam as well as GFS depicting some light precipitation so kept a
slight chance to low chance of showers along with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Instability will be decreasing this
evening. Much of the rainfall is done and any additional
rainfall is not expected to amount to much, around a quarter of
an inch or less.

There will be patchy fog into tonight, particularly for
southern ct and long island with moisture laden boundary layer
from recent rain and not much mixing within boundary layer.

Lows are a blend of mav met which are in pretty good agreement,
ranging from the low 60s to near 70.

There remains a moderate risk of rip current development at the
atlantic ocean beaches into early this evening.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
There will be ridging aloft with those westerlies translating
farther north of the region. Weak high pressure briefly builds
in Wednesday. Another cold front moves in Wednesday night. There
will be another weak shortwave aloft moving in Wednesday night
to accompany the front.

Mainly dry conditions are expected outside of a possible shower
or thunderstorm late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening. More efficient mixing is expected with downslope
westerly flow Wednesday. This will both promote greater daytime
instability but also slightly lower dewpoints so the instability
will be limited. High temperatures forecast are from the ecs
guidance with warmer values for the coastlines, getting well
into the 80s for most of the coast, and close to 90 degrees
within urban northeast nj and nyc. For Wednesday night, a blend
of ecs mav met was used for low temperatures with winds becoming
light once again and some radiational cooling late to promote a
more vast range of lows, ranging from upper 50s to lower 70s.

There is a low risk of rip current development at the atlantic
ocean beaches on Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
A bermuda high will persist into the late week, with a deeper upper
level trough over the hudson bay. Our region will remain between the
two systems, with subsidence and generally offshore flow, with the
exception of afternoon sea breezes, leading to above normal
temperatures and increasing humidity into Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage and locations will be less certain, and likely
more reliant upon weak upstream vorticity maximums, some of which
will be convectively induced and heavily dependent upon what occurs
well to the west. These vorticity maximums will then interact with
daily thermal troughs and sea breezes for at least isolated coverage
of thunderstorms each day.

By the weekend, the pattern begins to shift as ridging strengthens
across the central u.S., allowing the hudson bay trough to move
southeastward into the region in response. Although the timing of
the trough remains uncertain, the past few runs of the deterministic
guidance have become more consistent in the closed upper low moving
into the northeast Sunday during the day. If the timing is
maintained, the trough and attendant surface front will be favorably
timed with peak diurnal heating and instability, which combined with
the strengthening deep layer shear could lead to severe weather
potential. Will need to monitor closely in subsequent updates.

Thereafter, a marked decrease in humidity and return to seasonable
to slightly below normal temperatures will occur as a canadian high
builds into the region.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front gradually moves across the terminals tonight. High
pressure builds to the south on Wednesday.

Vfr for the city terminals and lower hudson valley terminals.

MVFR ifr east of the city across long island and southern
connecticut. There could be some improvement at isp, bdr, and,
gon, but timing is uncertain. Low conditions may continue
through 05z before gradual improvements toVFR.VFR prevails on
Wednesday.

Light winds under 10 kt into this evening, shifting to the nw
behind the cold front towards 03-04z. NW winds continue into
Wednesday morning before backing to the w-sw in the afternoon.

Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi50 min S 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 63°F1011.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi103 min SSW 7 G 8 67°F 993.1 hPa66°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi50 min S 2.9 G 5.1 70°F 65°F1011.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi50 min 67°F 63°F1011.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi56 min S 8.9 G 11 66°F 66°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi43 minN 00.15 miFog70°F69°F100%1012.2 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT18 mi46 minS 43.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1011.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT19 mi42 minSE 40.50 miFog69°F66°F90%1011.6 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi45 minS 510.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm4SW4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE5SE45SE5SE6S9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Hadlyme, Connecticut
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Hadlyme
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 06:13 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.91.21.72.12.42.52.42.21.81.51.10.80.60.81.31.92.32.62.82.62.321.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:04 AM EDT     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:07 PM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:37 PM EDT     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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011.71.81.40.8-0.1-1.1-1.9-2.3-2-1.2-0.30.81.72.11.91.30.6-0.5-1.5-2.2-2.3-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.