Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Colchester, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday June 23, 2018 2:05 PM EDT (18:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1049 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Today..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers with patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm into early afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas subsiding to 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms, mainly this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1049 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will remain to the south through tonight, then lift to the north on Sunday. A cold front will pass through Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build in through mid week, giving way to a warm front Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colchester, CT
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location: 41.51, -72.33     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 231501
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1101 am edt Sat jun 23 2018

A warm front will remain to the south tonight, while a wave of
low pressure moves along it, then lift to the north on Sunday.

A cold front will pass through Sunday afternoon and evening.

High pressure will then build in through mid week, giving way to
a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday. A weak cold front
will pass on Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Coverage for showers has been isolated to scattered at best, and
per latest radar, Sat low level water vapor, and hi-res model
guidance, should remain so through the afternoon. Seeing some
spotty drizzle as well, especially across central eastern long
island and along the ct coast. Tstms riding the warm front on
the outer coastal waters should remain south this afternoon.

E winds are at their peak late this morning, and should diminish
into this afternoon.

Highs today will only be in the upper 60s and lower 70s due to
cloud cover, on and off light precip, and easterly flow.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
Passing upper shortwave along with warm front and sfc wave of
low pressure approaching the coastal locations will result in
higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening,
though if more southerly trend of latest hi-res guidance is
correct, this idea may have to be revisited, especially inland.

Local downpours will be possible with pw approaching 2 inches.

The warm front should lift toward long island overnight with
most of the showers departing late.

On Sunday, the warm front is expected to lift to the north.

Persistent W SW flow aloft expected, and will slowly steer a
cold front through late in the day and at night.

Moderate instability builds NW of nyc, and showers and
thunderstorms redevelop during the afternoon, before
dissipating at night.

Lows tonight will remain in the 60s, and warmer temps are
anticipated Sunday with W SW flow as area sits temporarily in
the warm sector. Lower to middle 80s are expected. Lows fall
into the 60s Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Friday
High pressure builds in during Monday, but with a cyclonic flow
aloft there could be a shower or two across SE ct. Partly cloudy
with near normal temperatures. The high pressure center moves
through on Tuesday with sunny conditions and highs close to normal.

The high will be to our east on Wednesday, and a return SW flow
will bring warmer and more humid conditions. It appears the
daytime hours for most areas will be dry as showers ahead of an
approaching warm front remain to the west. The warm front moves
through, then a cold front slowly approaches Thursday into
Friday. Timing of the cold front is not certain, so will go with
slight chance to chance pops Wednesday night through Friday.

Rising temperatures aloft will allow for highs in the 90s for
the city and some inland areas Thursday and Friday. If the cloud
cover is lower then currently anticipated, then highs could be
a even a few degrees higher than what's in the forecast.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure centered near nova scotia and extending into new
england will drift east through today as a warm front and low
pressure approach. The warm front will likely remain to the
south of the terminals through 00z Sunday. There is a low chance
the front moves through late in the forecast period.

MVFR to ifr ceilings this afternoon, becoming ifr throughout
tonight. Showers will be of the hit and miss variety, with them
far more likely to miss than hit any given terminal until this
evening at the earliest. So only have vcsh until then at all
terminals. A rumble of thunder will be possible with the
showers, with the best chance of thunder late in the afternoon
into the evening. However, confidence in this occurring is to o
low to place in the tafs at this time.

Winds generally remain NE to E through this afternoon with
speeds diminishing to less than 10 kt. As the warm front
approaches late in the day, winds become light and variable
throughout, and should remain so through tonight.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday Chance of MVFR or lower conds in mainly late
day evening showers tstms.

Monday-Tuesday Vfr.

Wednesday MostlyVFR. Chance of showers tstms with MVFR or
lower conds mainly at kswf.

E winds north of a warm front are peaking late this morning,
with gusts up to 25 kt, and ocean seas 5-6 ft. Due to the
slightly higher than anticipated seas out east, extended the sca
that was already in effect for the ocean waters through the
afternoon E of fire island inlet.

By late afternoon evening, an approaching warm front will allow
flow to weaken, with a subsequent decrease in seas. Ocean seas
could briefly return to around 5 ft late tonight with a
building southerly swell.

Conditions will remain tranquil Sunday through Tuesday as the warm
front moves to the north, followed by a cold frontal passage and
building high pressure. Thereafter, the high shifts offshore, with
south-southwest flow strengthening, and sca-level gusts possible on
all waters Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Ocean seas will
increase to sca-levels in response to the strengthening and
prolonged south-southwest flow.

There could be a few locally heavy downpours tonight and again
Sunday. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated. Rainfall
totals through tonight will average around half an inch to
locally one inch.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz355.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz350-

Synopsis... Pw
near term... Goodman pw
short term... Pw
long term... Jc pw
aviation... Maloit md
marine... Md
hydrology... Pw

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi55 min ENE 9.9 G 12 63°F 1011.7 hPa61°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi50 min NE 12 G 14 62°F 2 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi70 minNE 41.50 miFog/Mist63°F60°F94%1011.8 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT18 mi73 minENE 710.00 miOvercast65°F59°F81%1011.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT19 mi69 minENE 81.75 miFog/Mist64°F62°F93%1010.8 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi72 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE9SE8SE7SE7SE6SE5CalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmE4NE3E6E6NE5E5NE5E8NE5NE6NE5NE6
1 day agoS76S8S45S6SE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N5N4NE5NE6NE5SE6E46SE9
2 days ago4

Tide / Current Tables for Tylerville, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:40 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:38 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:46 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     2.43 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:42 AM EDT     -2.75 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:56 PM EDT     2.71 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.