Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakewood, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:48PM Sunday March 26, 2017 12:55 PM EDT (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ146 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 1010 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
This afternoon..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms early...then showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 38 degrees...off cleveland 38 degrees and off erie 36 degrees.
LEZ146 Expires:201703262015;;108830 FZUS51 KCLE 261410 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1010 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ142>147-262015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, OH
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location: 41.51, -81.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 261319
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
920 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A warm front over the area will move north today. Low pressure over
missouri will track northeast across lake huron tonight pulling a
weak cold front across the region. Another low will move northeast
across the region Monday night into Tuesday pulling a cold front off
to the southeast. High pressure will build southeast into the area
by Wednesday then weaken as another low moves up the ohio valley
Friday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Increasing dynamics from the surface and upper low tracking NE in
lower mi will provide the forcing for numerous shra and tsra to
develop and spread west to east across the CWA today. Adding fuel
for the convection will be the warm southerly flow that should push
temps to top out in a 65 to 70 range for most of the area. Some of
the storms will become strong but few if any severe storms are
currently expected. However, if a little more sunshine occurs than
expected and temps get a few degrees warmer then some of the storms
could end up becoming severe. With the expected widespread cloud
cover expected will continue to stick with a middle of the road
forecast.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday night/
Major model differences this morning making this forecast a bit
difficult. So, will lean in the direction of old fashioned
forecasting. Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level
low pressure system over missouri finally starting to eject out
to the north. As the low lifts north, it should begin to get
caught up in the upper level jet stream and push to the
northeast. Trough axis extending south from the low will push
east as well and this trend is already evident in the water
vapor. Timing of the trough should put it into the forecast area
by mid day to early afternoon. The trough axis is expected to
push east of the area tonight. The moisture associated with the
trough will exit out to the east. Fair weather will return for
portions of the day on Monday until another wave of low pressure
pushes east into the area. More showers will spread east into
the forecast area Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday
morning.

Amplification of the upper level ridge will take place over the
forecast area as another trough digs into the eastern slopes of
the rockies resulting in low pressure development into texas.

The upper level ridge will allow surface ridging to build south
across the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Mild temperatures still expected over the next few days as polar
jet remains well north of the forecast area. Will stick with
persistence in the temperature department as there will be no
major changes in air mass through this forecast period.

Long term /Thursday through Saturday/
The long term begins Thursday with the ECMWF and GFS close enough
with correlation to previous runs that yield confidence for the
Thursday forecast. Both models show low pressure in the central
plains, the GFS over ERN ok or nern tx while the ECMWF is centered
more over mo. High pressure will be in ontario and western quebec.

Moisture will be increasing across the area through the day as the
low moves northeast. Will therefore increase clouds through the day
and bring in chance pops for showers in the afternoon. From Thursday
night on the models start to look like they belong on different
planets. The differences are too vast to go into in detail but in
general the ECMWF takes the low northeast across the great lakes
while the GFS builds the high back across the northern lakes and
shunts the low east off the mid atlantic coast. Will go with the
ecmwf entirely which also agrees with our current forecast and is
also supported by wpc surface fronts/pressure. Thus best chance for
precip will be Thursday night and Friday with likely pops in place.

Saturday will have chance pops for any lingering showers. Temps near
to slightly above normal.

Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/
Ifr CIGS continue at ktol this morning... Otherwise conditions
remainVFR across northern ohio and nwrn pa early today. The
stalled front across the area has begun to lift north and is
between kday and kaoh east to just north of kcle and then east
along the lakeshore. Believe however it may have trouble moving
much further north through the day. The hrrr continues with
vfr conditions across the area today although NAM and gfs
guidance is much more pessimistic with widespread MVFR and ifr
that last through the overnight as well. Best location for
persistent ifr restrictions would be ktol through the morning.

Otherwise radar shows rain approaching from the southwest.

Believe conditions will drop to MVFR across the area as this
moves in late morning and early afternoon beginning about
14-15z at kmfd and 18-21z kcle kcak and kyng. Brought precip
into keri after 22z. Could also see a few thunderstorms in the
area as well mainly in the afternoon. Best instability will come
after 20z or so fdy to mfd based on li's. Tonight guidance
likely correct as MVFR/ifr conditions wrap around the low into
the area as the low moves across the great lakes.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr much of the time late Monday into
tue then again by thu.

Marine
Will continue with the small craft advisory as is for now. Models
do take winds and waves down through the second half of the night
and into Sunday morning as expected but current winds remain gusty
into the 20 to 25 knot range and waves from the buoy off
cleveland was near 7 feet. For the late morning and afternoon
winds will veer to the southeast and decrease to 10 to 15 knots
as weakening low pressure moves from missouri to lake michigan.

The low will continue northeast across the lakes tonight turning
winds southwest by Monday morning behind a weak frontal system.

Another low will follow, this one crossing lake erie early
Tuesday morning. Ahead of the low on Monday, the front will
waffle north across the lake. The front will then drop back
south across the lake behind the low on Tuesday. Canadian high
pressure will build south across the lake Wednesday and
Thursday.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez143>149.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy/adams
short term... Lombardy
long term... Tk
aviation... Tk
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 7 mi37 min S 5.1 G 14 68°F 1014.7 hPa46°F
45169 8 mi25 min NW 5.8 G 9.7 39°F 36°F3 ft37°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 31 mi37 min S 11 G 17 66°F 1015.2 hPa49°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 41 mi70 min SW 1.9 49°F 1016 hPa42°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 48 mi35 min SSE 8 G 21 64°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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NE15
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SW14
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NW11
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E2
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NE11
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G24
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH4 mi62 minS 16 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F48°F49%1015.1 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH8 mi64 minS 1310.00 miOvercast67°F46°F49%1016.2 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi70 minS 13 G 2115.00 miOvercast68°F51°F56%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE15N10NE14NE15NE16NE17NE18NE13NE12NE11NE13NE10NE9NE9NE10NE9NE10NE9NE9E8SE12
G19
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SE16S16
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1 day agoSW16
G26
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S3CalmSW3S4N5S3CalmS3NE8NE10NE20
2 days agoSE8
G15
N12N11NE12NE11N8S10SE6SE6SE10
G15
SE7SE11SE15S18S13S18
G25
S19S16
G26
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G26
S20
G33
S17
G31
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G29
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G34
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.