Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merritt Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:37PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:01 AM EST (09:01 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 343 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Friday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Snow and sleet early this afternoon. Rain, snow and sleet late. Vsby less than 1 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W around 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 343 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pres approaches today and tracks over the waters on Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front approaches on Sunday night then crosses the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merritt Park, NY
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location: 41.52, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 150527
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1227 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight, before
retreating into new england Thursday. An area of low pressure
will develop over the tennessee valley Thursday, with a second
area of low pressure moving up the east coast Thursday night.

The low will likely pass just east of montauk early Friday,
then into the canadian maritimes Friday night. A broad area of
high pressure builds in for the weekend.

Near term through today
A deep layer northern stream ridge builds over the area
overnight. While associated subsidence under the ridge will keep
things dry, will see high clouds increase overnight per latest
satellite trends.

Still appear on track for a freeze across nyc (except staten
island) - the only locations in the CWA yet to experience a
freeze this fall - so left freeze warning for there as is.

Lows will be unseasonably cold, in the low teens across the
northern zones and low 20s along the coast.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Friday
The next impactful storm system will move into the region on
Thursday bringing our first good bout of snow chances for the
season. The low pressure tracking north up the east coast will
bring a slug of moisture and gusty winds starting by mid-day
Thursday. The timing of the system looks to bring the initial
round of precip as snow to much of the region by mid day.

Heaviest snowfall is expected along the coast during the first
few hours of the afternoon, generally between 1 and 4 pm before
switching over to rain as warmer air intrudes. This transition
from snow to rain will begin along the coast nyc and move inland
through the evening, with some sleet or freezing rain possible
during the transition as well. As for snowfall amounts, for the
nyc long island area expecting a slushy inch or two, with more
accumulation likely on grassy surfaces. Meanwhile, areas along
the coast can expect 1-3 inches with 2-4 inches further inland.

Given these amounts and the fact that this is our first real
winter system of the season, a winter weather advisory has been
issued Thursday afternoon night for much of the region,
excluding long island and the nyc metro. Ice accretion to around
a quarter inch is possible in the hudson valley where the
predominant ely flow will likely remain backed further to the
north. Temperatures during the day reach the low 30s inland and
the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

Model agreement is fairly good in placing the low center over
the south central nj coast by early Friday morning. As it
approaches and deepens, the surface pressure gradient tightens
significantly while at the same time a good LLJ moves over the
coast. This will mean gusty winds Thursday night into Friday,
especially along the coast.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The precipitation winds down Friday and winds decrease as the
low moves off and our pressure gradient relaxes. Under zonal
flow aloft and a building surface high, the weather should be
dry and quiet late Friday and Saturday. Low chcs for pcpn on sun
thru Mon with a frontal system potentially impacting the area.

There remain some significant timing and track differences
between the GFS and ecmwf, so a blended approach was used for
the fcst. The model consensus was for dry weather on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds in from the west early this morning before
retreating into new england later today. Low pressure then
approaches the area this afternoon and crosses the area
overnight into Friday morning.

Vfr conditions through the morning with nne winds becoming ene
at 5-10 kt.

Conditions then lower to MVFR, then ifr, this afternoon as
precipitation overspreads the terminals area between 18-20z. For
the city and coastal terminals, other than initial burst of
snow at onset, precipitation should generally begin as a
snow sleet mix before changing to a mix of rain and sleet, then
ultimately to all rain. This transition will occur fastest at
the city and long island terminals, where all rain is expected
by about 00z. For the lower hudson valley terminals,
precipitation is expected to begin as snow before transitioning
first to a mix of snow and sleet, then to a period of freezing
rain between 22-02z. Frozen freezing precipitation will linger
the longest at kswf, which has the potential to see an 8-12 hour
period of freezing rain beginning tonight and lasting into
Friday morning.

Ene winds will become gusty late this afternoon into the
overnight hours, with gusts of 30-35 kts at coastal terminals
and gusts gusts of 25-30 kts elsewhere. Gusts should begin to
subside towards 12z as winds begin to shift back to the nw.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Late tonight-Friday morning MVFR or lower conditions likely
with gusty ene winds 25-35kt, especially at city and coastal
terminals. Lingering wintry mix at kswf, otherwise all
precipitation remains rain before tapering off by midday.

Friday afternoon BecomingVFR. N-nw winds gusting g20-30kt.

Friday night-Sunday Vfr. NW winds g15-20kt possible.

Sunday night-Monday MVFR or lower possible in possible rain
or wintry mix.

Marine
Tranquil conditions with a relaxed pressure gradient into
Thursday morning, give way to small craft advisory (sca)
conditions by Thursday afternoon ahead of an advancing coastal
low. Should then see gales on all waters Thursday night and
quite probably through Friday. Conditions will likely then remain
at SCA levels through Friday night. Winds will be below sca
levels over the weekend, but seas will only slowly subside to
below 5 ft on the ocean thru Saturday. A frontal system could
produce SCA conditions Sunday night and Monday, mainly on the
ocean.

Hydrology
Liquid equivalent QPF of .75-1.5 inches expected mainly from
midday Thu til midday fri. A good deal of this should fall as
snow and then freezing rain across the interior. Nuisance
ponding urban flooding possible in the nyc metro area and across
long island.

No hydrologic impacts are expected sat- tue.

Tides coastal flooding
Despite the large departures of around 3 ft needed, minor tidal
flooding is still possible during the early Fri mrng high tide
cycle, particularly over the east end of li, the vulnerable back
bays of LI and nyc, and perhaps a few spots along the WRN sound.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm est
this evening for ctz009>012.

Winter weather advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for ctz005>008.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for nyz067>070.

Winter weather advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 pm est
this evening for nyz071.

Freeze warning until 9 am est this morning for nyz072-073-075-
176-178.

Nj... Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for njz002-103.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 9 pm est
this evening for njz004-104>108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est this
evening for anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est Friday for
anz330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Maloit
short term... 99
long term... 99
aviation... Feb
marine... Maloit
hydrology... 99
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 35 mi32 min N 2.9 G 7 26°F 42°F15°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 35 mi32 min 25°F 1036 hPa16°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 41 mi62 min NNE 12 G 16 31°F 1 ft
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi32 min N 4.1 G 6 28°F 55°F1036.5 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 44 mi47 min N 12 G 18 52°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi32 min ENE 11 G 15 32°F 52°F1037 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY9 mi69 minN 310.00 miFair26°F10°F53%1035.9 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi77 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds25°F15°F69%1035.6 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT20 mi69 minNE 310.00 miFair25°F12°F58%1035.9 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY24 mi68 minENE 310.00 miFair26°F16°F66%1035.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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NW7NW14NW9NW10N6N3NW63NE8N9E4NE6N3N3Calm
1 day agoN4NE3N5CalmN7N6N9N8
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N105NW5NW5W3CalmW4W7W6W9NW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW855SE3S4SE5CalmCalmSE4SE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:17 PM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:56 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.81.21.72.12.32.42.21.81.41.210.911.422.32.62.72.62.21.61.21

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:26 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:10 AM EST     0.52 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:52 AM EST     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:27 PM EST     0.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:36 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:25 PM EST     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.20.30.50.50.3-0-0.4-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.30.20.60.60.40.2-0.3-0.6-0.9-1-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.