Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay View, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:07PM Thursday November 22, 2018 6:38 AM EST (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:11PMMoonset 6:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 909 Pm Est Wed Nov 21 2018
Overnight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees and off erie 44 degrees.
LEZ143 Expires:201811220915;;661588 FZUS51 KCLE 220209 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 909 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-220915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay View, OH
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location: 41.52, -82.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221109
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
609 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build southeast through the central great
lakes to new york and pennsylvania by this evening. The high
will slowly drift off the new jersey coast by Friday night. Low
pressure will move east across northern ontario, canada Saturday
forcing a cold front east across the local area by Saturday
night. Deep low pressure will move northeast across the lower
great lakes region by Monday morning. Much colder air will
return to the local area for much of next week.

Near term through Friday
Clouds continue to hang tough overnight and will be expanding a
bit further east later today. Light snow flurries pushed west
into cleveland now. Snow activity should gradually wane this
morning as flow begins to shift around to the east and then
southeast.

Original discussion...

broad deep upper level low pressure system over quebec will move
slowly east keeping the local forecast area under cyclonic flow
and colder air through the day today. A large amplitude ridge
will move east of the rocky mountains and force a large surface
high pressure to build over the local area this morning. The
surface high pressure will dominate the local area through
Friday afternoon. In the mean time, since center of the high is
west of the local area, wind flow will extend south from the lake
forcing lake effect flurries and snow showers to occur across
the local area. As the high pressure moves east today, the flow
will shift to a more southeast direction. This will bring an end
to the lake effect snow shower threat for now.

Latest satellite imagery denotes a lot of cloud cover over the
local area. Models suggest an extensive 1000 to 700 mb area of
moisture across the forecast area as well to support the cloud
deck. Little change is expected through this evening in the
cloud department. Then, as drier air works its way into the
local area, clouds will begin to thin and lift north of the area
from west to east. Not expecting much in the way of
precipitation during this forecast period.

Temperatures today and tonight will remain quite chilly with
highs today in the lower to middle 20s east and central and
lower 30s west. Overnight lows will fall to the middle teens in
the east to upper 20s in the west. However, warm air advection
will take place Friday and highs will recover nicely into the
lower and middle 40s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Arctic high pressure will departing the region on Friday night and a
warm front will be moving in from the west. This front will move in
with an upper trough and widespread rain will be expected on
Saturday. Temperatures will likely get close to normal on Saturday
with 850mb temperatures of 2-4c, translating to 40s at the surface,
perhaps close to 50 in the southern part of the forecast area.

Precipitation should be fairly brisk in moving across the forecast
area on Saturday with the entire area drying out by daybreak on
Sunday morning as a weak upper ridge and surface high pressure
nudging into the area. Just a modest bit more of warmer air tries to
get into the region on Sunday so could see temperatures a couple
degrees warmer on Sunday from Saturday.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
The long term forecast period continues to look unsettled for much
of next week. An upper trough will move through the central united
states early next week, supporting a surface low that will deepen as
moves into the area on Sunday night into Monday. While the extended
guidance has varying strengths for this surface low, the models have
been very consistent on Sunday night and Monday being wet periods so
will continue with the likely pops across the area. Initial
precipitation type will be rain as this low will continue advecting
some warmer air ahead of the system and won't begin pooling in the
colder air until it passes to the north on Monday. From Monday night
and beyond, things could get fairly interesting, especially in the
favored lake effect snow belt region. The upper trough deepens and
becomes cut off over the eastern lakes and the surface low will be
slow to move east Monday night into Tuesday. With abundant synoptic
moisture from the surface low and favorable temperatures and wind
profiles for lake effect snow, the signals are certainly there for a
multi-day lake effect snow event for NE oh and NW pa. So will
continue likely pops for that area with slight chance to chance pops
elsewhere as there is enough moisture for snow to occur anywhere at
this point. Temperatures will start near normal on Monday before
crashing to the 20s and 30s for Monday night and beyond as some
cold, canadian air returns to the region.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
GenerallyVFR ceilings expected through the forecast period. A
band of lake effect flurries continues to extend south from the
lake into the cleveland area. Expecting this band to dissipate
as flow shifts to a northeast direction and then southeast.

Expecting cloud deck to persist between 3500 and 8000 or so feet
through the period as well.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Saturday and again Sunday night into
Monday.

Marine
Lake erie actually looks fairly quiet today and tomorrow with arctic
high pressure moving in over the eastern lakes. Winds will be light
and variable on the lake today and will shift around to the south
tonight as high pressure moves to the east. Southerly flow will
continue through all of Friday and most of Saturday until a warm
front crosses the region and flow shifts around to the southwest.

Weak high pressure will build into the region on Sunday, allowing
for light and variable flow for much of the day. Deepening low
pressure will enter the region early next week and winds will begin
out of the southeast before shifting around to the west once the low
passes to the north on Monday night. Early next week could have some
bumpy periods on the lake, but as of now a small craft advisory
appears to be the worst case scenario at the moment.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Sefcovic
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 7 mi38 min N 8.9 G 14 27°F 38°F1032.7 hPa (+1.6)19°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 8 mi38 min NE 5.1 G 8 25°F 1033.6 hPa (+1.5)
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 19 mi38 min ENE 8 G 13 28°F 1029.8 hPa (+1.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 21 mi113 min NNE 4.1 28°F 1031 hPa15°F
TWCO1 24 mi28 min NE 8 G 13 27°F 1030.2 hPa15°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 27 mi28 min NNE 9.7 G 14 27°F 42°F1033.1 hPa18°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 28 mi38 min NNE 9.9 G 12 24°F
LORO1 35 mi68 min NNE 8.9 G 12 28°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 35 mi38 min NE 4.1 G 8 25°F 1032.6 hPa (+1.2)13°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH33 mi45 minNE 510.00 miOvercast26°F15°F63%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12W13W12W10W9W10W8N8NW7NW8N6N8N6NE6NE7NE10NE8NE7
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1 day agoNW9NW7N8N12NW10NW9W10W8W10W11SW8SW5S5S7S9SW13SW13
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2 days agoN3N3E3N3N3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3SW4SW4SW3W4W5W6W7W5W5W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.