Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:42PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:12 PM EST (23:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 317 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 317 Pm Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres will build S of the waters this weekend. Low pres will pass well W of the region late Monday, but its associated front will likely bring periods of rain and gusty southerly winds. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 192042
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
342 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
A warming trend this weekend with continued dry weather. A storm
system will bring the potential for heavy rain and strong coastal
winds late Monday night into Tuesday, but there is a risk of some
wintry mix ice across the interior late Monday into Tue morning.

Blustery, dry and seasonably cold weather follows Wednesday
through Friday.

Near term until midnight tonight
4 pm update...

wave clouds filling back in. Low level moisture which has remained
trapped beneath a stout dry inversion around h9 continues to advect
s E with the light steering current. Locations mainly N of the ma-
pike have found themselves underneath a blanket while folks to the
s have seen a day of abundant sunshine. Yet overall highs over much
of S new england have warmed up around the low 30s, some locations
around 35 degrees.

Expecting low clouds to linger as temperatures drop towards midnight.

Watching the clearing line out of upstate ny as warmer, drier air
begins to push in out of the W sw, increasing which is discussed
in much further detail below. Temperatures are anticipated to stabilize,
slightly warming in some spots. Looking at temperatures to drop towards
nighttime lows around the mid to upper 20s.

Short term midnight tonight through Saturday night
Through Saturday...

digging n-stream energy out of the arctic reaches of canada,
capturing and stretching energy out of a sweeping h5 trof axis
into the W conus, parent surface low continues to deepen across
the N great lakes region into the st. Lawrence river valley down
to around 990 mb up against high pressure over the SE CONUS up
to 1030 mb. A tightening pressure gradient emerges along with a
subsequent jet streak, a gradient wind threat exists around the
Saturday morning timeframe.

H925 westerly winds 45 to 55 mph, the height of which is around
Saturday morning. Accompanying stout inversion, strengthening,
with pronounced warming through the h8-9 layer. Limitations on
the potential mix down of faster momentum to the surface, however,
if the boundary layer is able to mix up to h95 1200 feet agl,
then there is the possibility of getting wind gusts up around
40 to 45 mph.

However, considering the cold, icy ocean, and snow pack ground,
expect outcomes to mainly be gradient driven with gusts on the
order of +5 to the sustained wind. Sustained around 30 mph, gusts
around 35 mph possible along the s-coast, CAPE and islands, but
again, colder conditions right at the surface are likely to limit
mixing.

Warm air advection proceeding aloft along with abundant sunshine,
temperatures warming towards the low 50s through the day as the
height of the winds aloft pass through, it is only then that
gusts 20 to 30 mph are possible across much of S new england
aside from the faster winds along the S SE coast, both of which
diminish towards sundown.

Gale warnings for the waters but no wind advisory headlines given
such a marginal event. If any one location has the best chance
of seeing wind advisory criteria with sustained winds over 30
mph it would be nantucket.

Saturday night...

main surface cold front pushing S into the region, eroding beneath
high pressure. Light winds expected with filtering mid to high level
clouds across the region within the zonal pressure gradient aloft.

Stout inversion building across the region down to h95, with higher
dewpoint air lingering along with the likely boundary layer mixing
of snowmelt and now cold air advection proceeding, expecting to seeing
low clouds develop towards Sunday morning. Keeping it mild with lows
around the upper 20s to low 30s for the timeframe.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Highlights...

* dry and mild Sunday along with light winds
* risk of a wintry mix ice western ma late Mon into Tue morning
* a period of heavy rain and strong coastal winds likely late mon
night into tue
* dry, seasonably cold Wed Thu & Friday
synoptic overview...

winter break? It looks that way given the lack of high latitude
blocking combined with subtropical ridge emerging over fl from time
to time will result in a fast progressive northern stream jet of
modest amplitude across the conus. Thus temperatures likely running
at or slightly above normal the next 7-10 days. In addition given
the progressive nature of the northern stream and streams appearing
to be unphased, excessive precip events appear unlikely.

Sunday...

dry quiet weather with confluent mid level flow over the region
providing plenty of subsidence. Thus sunshine, light winds and a
mild airmass will support highs in the mid to upper 40s. Leaned
toward the milder ec MOS here. It will feel even milder given the
light winds and full sunshine. Not too shabby for jan 21st.

Monday...

turning colder as 1038 mb high over southern james bay advects into
southern quebec with cold air bleeding southward into new england.

This will set the stage for a wintry precip event for interior
southern new england as warm advection from an approaching closed
low rides up and over a cold dome spreading southward. Monday will
begin dry but the GFS and its ensembles (gefs) have precip
overspreading the region during the afternoon. New 12z ec now
introduces some light QPF late in the day across ct, west-central
ma. We will lean toward a model blend which brings chance pops
across the area Mon aftn. Ec more amplified colder solution than
gfs GEFS with high probability of mixed precip and ice across the
interior Mon ngt into Tue morning. Ec ensembles support the
operational run with 50% probability of 32 degs or colder Mon ngt
all the way to the ct ma border. Thus will hedge the forecast toward
this colder scenario especially given the cold air damming (cad)
signature with 1038 mb high over quebec. Could be some impact here
given it doesn't take much ice to cause problems.

Tuesday...

how quickly shallow cold air scours out will hinge on timing and
location of triple pt low development. If triple pt low tracks
directly over the region (along with pres falls) shallow cold air
would likely linger across northwest ma much of the day per ec and
its ensembles (ecens). Thus will have to watch this evolution
closely as could be an extended period of freezing rain into tue
across northwest ma.

Otherwise warm sector likely overspreads ri and at least southeast
ma with temps surging into the 50s. More importantly will be a
subtropical plume of moisture advecting up the eastern seaboard
ahead of an approaching cold front with pwats +2sd. Also strong
southerly wind anomalies of up to +2sd within this moisture plume
providing periods of heavy windswept rain. Also could be some
embedded elevated convective elements as mid level lapse rates near
moist adiabatic. Deterministic guidance has QPF ranging from 0.75 to
1.5 inches which is supported by both GEFS and ecens ensembles with
modest probs of 1 inch potential. System remains progressive which
will limit excessive rainfall potential.

As previous shifts have mentioned strong low level southerly jet of
65-70 kt at 925 mb crosses the region tue, yielding a wind swept
rain along with the risk of stronger winds aloft reaching the
surface especially in heavier shower convective activity and in the
warm sector (coastal plain).

As for impacts to river ice with potential rainfall near an inch
next tue, given dew pts remain at or below 32 degs much of the time
leading up to Tue and then only briefly warming to 45-50 Tue aftn
followed by dew pts falling back into the teens and 20s after tue
rainfall, not anticipating much melting, thus little impact to river
ice.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday...

behind the departing Tue storm system it turns colder but seasonably
cool with temperature anomalies at 850 and 925 mb very close to
normal for late jan. Mainly dry weather expected as well mid to late
next week.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ...

rest of today... High confidence.

Vfr. Low-end bkn-ovc CIGS will linger into this evening mainly
along and N of the ma-pike. For those higher terrain terminals,
MVFR is possible. Light W winds overall, S through the ct river
valley.

Tonight and Saturday... High confidence.

Vfr. Low-endVFR CIGS lingering mainly N of the ma-pike. Of
greater concern is the increasing W winds. Strongest along the
s-coast and over the CAPE islands. Potential 40 kt gusts over
ack around 12-15z Saturday. Roughly 30-40 kts S se-coast, 20-30
kts elsewhere. Threat of llws roughly 9-15z with a 45-55 kt sw
jet at and just above 2 kft agl.

Saturday night... Moderate confidence.

W winds diminishing, however low clouds potentially building
across the region. Will keep low- endVFR with this forecast but
there is the potential of ifr cigs.

Kbos terminal... Low-endVFR CIGS around 4 kft agl through evening.

Increasing W winds overnight into Saturday, gusts up to 30 kts
possible.

Kbdl terminal... Within a valley location, holding forecast
increasing W winds into Saturday at or below 25 kts.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance ra, chance sn,
slight chance fzra.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Ra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with areas
gusts to 30 kt. Ra.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to
30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Increasing W winds overnight to gale force. Mainly a gradient
wind event of around 30 kts for the S SE waters with gusts +5,
gale warnings posted. Waves building to 10 feet at the height of
the winds centered around the Saturday morning hours, diminishing
gradually thereafter.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est Saturday for anz231-
251.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz236.

Gale warning from 5 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz235-237.

Gale warning from 7 am to 1 pm est Saturday for anz250.

Gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Saturday for anz254-255.

Gale warning from 4 am to 5 pm est Saturday for anz256.

Synopsis... Nocera sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera sipprell
marine... Nocera sipprell
hydrology... WFO box staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 4 mi88 min 1 32°F 1014 hPa23°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi43 min 33°F 33°F1014.6 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 20 mi83 min W 9.7 G 12 33°F 38°F1 ft1014.3 hPa (+0.6)24°F
44090 24 mi43 min 36°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi73 min W 17 G 18 33°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.2)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi43 min W 4.1 G 6 32°F 35°F1015 hPa
FRXM3 35 mi43 min 34°F 23°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi43 min 33°F 34°F1014.9 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi43 min W 5.1 G 6 34°F 1013.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi43 min 33°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi88 min WNW 5.1 34°F 995 hPa19°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 43 mi43 min W 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 1014.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 44 mi43 min WSW 6 G 6 33°F 35°F1014.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 46 mi43 min W 2.9 G 5.1 34°F 34°F1015 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi43 min W 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 1014.7 hPa19°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi30 min 42°F4 ft
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 49 mi43 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 34°F 35°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi80 minWSW 410.00 miFair34°F23°F64%1014.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA9 mi78 minSW 410.00 miFair30°F19°F64%1014.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi77 minSW 57.00 miFair30°F19°F66%1014 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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NW10NW7NW6NW8NW7NW6NW9--W4W6W4W5W7W9
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1 day agoNW6NW7NW6NW7NW5NW5NW10N7N10NW8NW7NW10N10N5N3NW8NW7NW106NW9E5CalmNW4NW10
2 days agoCalmCalmE3CalmE5CalmSE7SE4E5E6NE7NE10NE10NE10NE10NE12NE9N7N8N6N8N3N6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Falmouth Heights
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Fri -- 12:17 AM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:18 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:22 PM EST     1.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:48 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.21.10.80.50.30.10.20.40.711.21.41.41.20.90.60.30.1-00.10.40.71

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     -4.24 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:42 AM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:37 AM EST     4.03 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:33 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:54 AM EST     -0.12 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:56 PM EST     -4.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:18 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:05 PM EST     4.29 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.1-4.1-4.2-3.7-2.51.63.23.943.62.7-0.9-3.2-4.2-4.5-4.2-3.1-0.7344.34.13.52.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.