Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM   Moonset 1:10 PM

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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 404 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers this evening. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Fri night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 11 seconds.Sun and Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night through Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Low pres moves south from the south coastal waters tonight. High pres over the maritimes will build south into new england Fri and Sat, then head to nova scotia Sun. A weak front will move into the region Mon. A warm front approaches from the sw on Tue.

FXUS61 KBOX 021907 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 307 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS

A weak low pressure will bring scattered showers near the coast this afternoon. Northeast onshore flow will bring cloudy and cool conditions tomorrow. High pressure supplies dry weather with cooler onshore breezes on Saturday. Increasing clouds later Saturday into Sunday, with solid chances for rains and cooler temperatures on Sunday into Sunday evening. High pressure then brings dry and seasonable weather early next week, with our next chance for rains after Sunday not appearing until Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Shortwave trough aloft continues to dig south into SNE this afternoon. With clouds clearing across much of northeast MA, this could set the stage for an isolated pop up shower with a low chance at a rumble of thunder. SPC mesoanalysis is showing around 100 J/kg of CAPE/instability in northeast MA this afternoon. Showers quickly move south with the passage of a back door cold front.
This back door cold front will switch our winds to the NE bringing cool air and a low level marine stratus cloud deck over the region tonight. This cloud deck will keep lows mild again overnight only dropping into the upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Rising heights and high pressure building in will attempt to erode the marine status deck tomorrow from west to east, but will likely linger well into the afternoon for the Cape and Islands.
Best chance for sun tomorrow will again be in the CT River Valley which is where high temps could top 70F. Elsewhere, cool onshore easterly flow will keep highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Upper level ridge axis passes over SNE Friday night with high pressure directly overhead. Winds become light and variable and skies should begin to clear as onshore flow weakens. This could allow for overnight temps to drop into the low 40s, with an outside shot at upper 30s.



LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Highlights:

* Increased clouds but dry Saturday, but cooler with better chances for rains Sun into Sun night.

* Mainly dry Mon and Tue with seasonable to slightly above normal temps.

* Warm front around Tue night or Wed brings next chance for clouds and showers.

Details:

Saturday and Sunday:

Sfc ridge of high pressure over coastal New England to very slowly weaken/shift eastward through the course of the weekend. Meanwhile on the western periphery of upper level ridging over western New England and the northern mid-Atlc and associated with pretty disorganized shortwave trof energy, warm advection driven showers will gradually shift eastward into Southern New England, mainly during the latter half of the weekend (Sunday).

Still looks like Saturday is the better day of the two, although will have cooler breezes near the coast and increased cloud cover in all areas. Highs should reach the 60s for most interior locales, but around the mid 50s along the eastern MA coast, with upper 50s/around 60 near the southern coastline.

Sunday on the other hand looks cloudy with periods of rain showers, which slowly shift offshore during the evening and overnight. There are some indications that the frontal boundary responsible for the rains slows/stalls offshore that could keep chances for showers going well into Sunday night but this isn't set in stone. Though expected rain amts aren't substantial, should be a pretty soggy day.
Despite the warmer air aloft, cooler highs in the 50s given the cloud cover, rains and limited mixing. Milder-than-climo on the lows with the continued cloudiness in the mid to upper 40s.

Monday and Tuesday:

For Monday...could still see some leftover light showers into the morning across southeast MA and the Cape and Islands as frontal boundary in vicinity slowly sags southward. ECMWF in particular is slowest to progress the front offshore. Ridging to the north and west eventually builds into Southern New England later in the day and especially into Monday evening. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

For Tuesday...high pressure brings a period of cooler onshore flow to coastal New England, with temperatures being significantly milder inland away from the maritime influence. Kept highs in the 60s near the coast with highs inland into the lower to mid 70s, with potential spot 80 degree readings not out of the question in the warmer spots in the CT Valley. Increasing clouds for Tue night ahead of a warm front but associated rains should hold off until Wed.

Wednesday:

Warm front associated with a rather strong area of low pressure over the northern Plains drapes itself over or just west of SNE. This offers the next best chance for rains after Sunday with PoPs in the medium (30-40%) range for rains on Wednesday.



AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of today: Moderate Confidence

Scattering out of the cloud deck is leading to VFR conditions for all interior terminals the rest of the afternoon. Cape Cod and the Islands will be stuck in IFR likely the rest of the day as the cloud deck moves east. There is still a low chance for an isolated shower and rumble of thunder mainly in NE MA this afternoon, but confidence was only high enough to include VCSH in the TAF at this time. Winds may occasionally gust 15-20 knots this afternoon.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

Winds turn NE overnight advecting in a marine status cloud deck from over the ocean. This will bring IFR and localized LIFR overnight for eastern terminals, while western terminals may be spared with VFR/MVFR. Winds may occasionally gust 15-20 knots overnight esspically near the coasts.

Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence

Gradual improvements in CIGS back to MVFR in the morning, then to VFR in the afternoon with the CAPE and Islands seeing IFR linger longer into the day. Winds turn SSE at 5-10 knots

Tomorrow Night: High Confidence

VFR with light and variable winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence.

VFR this afternoon with a low chance for an isolated shower and rumble of thunder. Winds turn NE this evening brining in IFR/LIFR CIGS after 00z. Gradual improvements to MVFR then VFR tomorrow.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence.

VFR this afternoon. MVFR/IFR possible overnight, but the extent west of the marine status deck remains uncertain.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: Moderate Confidence

Weak low pressure system will cause scatted rain showers with isolated thunder this afternoon and evening mainly across the eastern waters. Cool NE flow will cause a low status/fog cloud deck to form this evening. Winds will approach 20-25 knots esspically across the southern waters between 06-12z tonight, but confidence was not high enough to issue a small craft advisory at this time.

Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence

Low status and fog stick around into the afternoon before possibly clearing in the evening. Winds become light and variable tomorrow

Tomorrow night: High Confidence

High pressure overhead will keep conditions dry with light and variable winds

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Falmouth Heights
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Thu -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:38 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Woods Hole
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Thu -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     2.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:25 AM EDT     -3.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:57 PM EDT     3.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     -0.11 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EDT     -3.22 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution), knots

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