Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woods Hole, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:03PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:27 AM EDT (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 1:14PMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 337 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft, building to 5 ft this afternoon. Showers likely. Patchy fog this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 6 ft. Showers. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 337 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will approach the waters this afternoon with a chance for showers, then will cross the waters tonight. SW winds up to gale force are possible ahead of the front, with nw gales behind it. Another front will push across the waters late Wed, followed by high pres on Thu. The high will build S of the waters on Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woods Hole, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 150850
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
450 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure south of new england provides dry cool weather
overnight. A cold front will bring scattered showers Monday
into Monday night along with a few heavy downpours possible
Monday evening. Drier cooler air moves in behind the front
Tuesday along with gusty winds. A cold front moves through new
england late Wednesday. Much colder air moves in behind the
front Wednesday night on gusty northwest winds. The cold weather
lingers through Friday morning, then moderates during Friday.

Another cold front swings through on Saturday followed by more
cold air Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Clouds were quickly pushing e-ne as seen on goes-east nighttime
microphysics composite satellite imagery at 08z. Patchy,
locally dense fog continues across the normally susceptible
valley areas with light variable or calm winds in place.

Conditions will deteriorate during the day as showers move with
with an approaching warm front. Noting a line of showers across
ne pa into the nyc area at 08z, moving steadily e. The precip
will be spotty to start, then will fill in during the midday
and afternoon hours. These showers will tend to taper off by
midday or early afternoon. However, much of the short range high
resolution model guidance signal a second band of heavier
showers heading in during the mid or late afternoon. Noting
an tropical moisture plume moving toward the region with this
second batch of precip, as pwat values increase to 1.7 to 1.9
inches.

Expect SW winds to increase as a 40-50 kt low level jet
approaches. Will see good low level mixing with this feature,
with low level lapse rates up to 8-9c km. So, gusts may reach
30-35 mph this afternoon. H925 temps jump up to +14c to +15c as
well, but with the clouds and showers in place, temps will
remain somewhat cooler across central and northern areas, with
readings in the lower-mid 60s. However, could see some temps up
to the mid-upper 60s across southern areas this afternoon.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

showers will fall heavily at times through around midnight or so
ahead of approaching cold front. May also see some isolated
thunderstorms as the front moves in late tonight. Low level jet
remains in place ahead of the front, so SW winds will continue
to gust upward to 35-40 mph. Then, as the front passes around or
after midnight, winds shift to NW but will remain gusty.

Strong surge of dry, cooler air will quickly shift E during the
early morning hours, so expect showers to push offshore. Strong
cold air quickly pushes in as h925 temps drop. Winds will remain
gusty, but not quite high enough to reach advisory criteria.

Skies will become mostly clear during the pre dawn hours.

Tuesday...

another area of high pressure approaches, will see mostly sunny
skies. However, NW winds will usher in a batch of rather cool
air, with h85 temps ranging to +1c along the S coast to -2c
over NW mass by midday day or early afternoon. So, surface temps
will be rather cool for mid october. Expect readings to only
top off in the 50s, except some upper 40s across the E slopes of
the berkshires. It will feel even cooler early in the day with
leftover gusty winds in place. Wind chill values may only be in
the 30s across W mass, especially the higher terrain. Winds will
diminish during the day.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Big picture...

baffin-hudson upper low anchors a broad trough over the northeast
and north central usa. Coastal pacific ridge and southwest usa upper
low form a blocked flow along the pacific coast. The western ridge
flattens for a couple of days, then rebuilds over next weekend.

Two shortwaves move through the jet flow during the long term.

The first moves through Wednesday night, the second digs over
the weekend and crosses new england Sunday. The jet flow loads
air from the canadian arctic behind the Wednesday trough,
bringing it across new england Wednesday night through Friday
morning. The jet flow then shifts as the western ridge flattens.

This loads air from alaska and NRN british columbia behind the
weekend trough.

Contour heights are forecast below normal midweek, near normal
Friday-Saturday, and below normal again Sunday. Expect a
similar trend in temperatures during this period.

Model mass and thermal fields are in general agreement through
Saturday, then show differences in detail with the weekend trough.

Overall forecast confidence is moderate-high through the period.

Concerns...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

upper trough moves through supported by a 140 kt jet. Trough also
brings a cold pool with 500-mb temps -20c to -28c. Even so, moisture
is forecast mainly at or below 500 mb with a relatively dry surface
layer. Dynamic lift will be weak. This suggests a dry frontal
passage with the best chance of showers in western ma, possibly
central ma and parts of northern ct. Mixing to 850 mb brings
potential for 30-35 kt west-northwest gusts. Temps in the mixed
layer are 0-1c east and -2c west, support MAX sfc temps in the 50s
and perhaps near 60 east.

Wednesday night through Friday morning...

plains high pressure builds Wednesday night. Pressure gradient
and cold advection Wednesday night will maintain gusty winds and
transport cold air. Winds in the column will be near 30 kt
Wednesday night and 25 kt Thursday. The ridge moves overhead
Thursday night bringing light wind. Lingering moisture near 850
mb may support a few clouds Wednesday night, but otherwise
mainly clear skies through Thursday night.

The forecast 500-mb heights and 850-mb temperatures are more
than 2 std deviations below normal for mid october. Temperatures
in the mixed layer at -8c suggest high sfc temps in the 40s.

Nighttime temperatures upstream in NRN canada are in the upper
20s and 30s, and this will be used for the Wed night Thursday
night min temps.

The presence of wind Wednesday night should prevent much frost, but
some min temps near 32f may lead to freezing concerns in the central
hills and berkshires. Clear skies and light wind Thursday night will
present frost and freeze concerns over most of southern new england.

Friday afternoon-Saturday-Sunday...

high pressure moves offshore. Return flow around the high will bring
milder air back into new england. The next trough approaches this
weekend. The surface cold front swings through on Saturday with a
150 kt jet overhead providing dynamic support, while a moisture
column reaches sfc to 400 mb and provides support for showers.

Colder air moves in Sunday with the upper trough moves overhead.

Cold pool clouds are a concern for Sunday, low confidence on any
showers.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

through 12z...

mainlyVFR conditions, except local ifr-lifr CIGS vsbys in
patchy fog in the normally susceptible valley locations of
interior E mass and portions of the ct valley NE ct. Light w-sw
or calm winds through daybreak. CIGS may lower to MVFR across w
mass N central ct as lower clouds and scattered showers approach
by around 11z or so.

Today and tonight...

MVFR conditions moving across the remainder of the region by
mid-late morning. Showers move in by midday. Local ifr
conditions in any heavier showers and patchy fog this afternoon
into early tonight. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Llws
develops across S coastal areas, possibly up to 50-55 kt near
the lower and mid cape, kack and kmvy tonight. SW surface winds
may gust up to 25-30 kt across most of the region, up to 40 kt
along S coastal terminals late this afternoon and tonight. Winds
shift to w-nw after 06z or so. Conditions should improve toVFR
after 06z.

Tuesday...

cold front offshore Tue morning, with NW winds gusting up to
30-35 kt early along the coast, and 25-30 kt across the higher
inland terrain. Winds should diminish by midday or early
afternoon. ExpectVFR conditions.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

MVFR conditions through mid morning, then CIGS lower to MVFR
with showers. Ifr CIGS MVFR-ifr vsbys in more showers toward
evening push, some may be heavy at times. Isolated thunder
possible tonight. Marginal llws possible this afternoon evening.

ExpectVFR conditions for the Tuesday morning push, though nw
winds may gust up to 30 kt.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Vfr early, then showers develop with MVFR CIGS vsbys by mid to
late morning into this evening. Rain may be heavy at times.

Isolated thunder possible from 22z to 03z Tuesday. Conditions
should improve overnight,VFR by the morning push Tuesday.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Tuesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Thursday:VFR. Windy with gusts to
35 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Patchy
frost.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

*** gale warning this afternoon into Tuesday morning ***
through 12z...

light s-sw winds. Seas 3 ft or less. Good visibility.

Today...

s winds increase by around midday, then shift to SW during the
afternoon as a warm front moves ne. Winds will increase quickly
late in the day, with gusts up to 25-30 kt. Seas build up to
5-6 ft ahead of an approaching cold front. Visibility lowers in
showers and patchy fog.

Tonight...

sw winds gust up to 30-40 kt, highest across the southern
waters, including near CAPE cod and the islands. Reduced
visibility at times showers with locally heavy downpours through
most of the night, then should improve front nw-se late.

Isolated thunderstorms possible. Winds shift to NW with the
frontal passage late at night. Seas continue to build, up to
6-12 feet, highest S and E of nantucket martha's vineyard.

Tuesday...

nw winds gusting to 25-40 kt early, then diminish to around 20
kt by early afternoon. Seas up to 6-9 ft early, slowly
subsiding. Good visibility.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate to high
confidence.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for october 18
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 am edt Tuesday for
anz232.

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am edt Tuesday for
anz233-234.

Gale warning from 4 am to 9 am edt Tuesday for anz230.

Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt Tuesday for
anz231.

Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 1 am edt Tuesday for
anz236.

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt Tuesday for
anz235-237-255-256.

Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt Tuesday for
anz250.

Gale warning from 1 am to 10 am edt Tuesday for anz251.

Gale warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt Tuesday for
anz254.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Evt
short term... Evt
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 0 mi39 min 59°F 64°F1022.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi102 min Calm 46°F 1023 hPa44°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 21 mi37 min SW 9.7 G 16 61°F 64°F1 ft1022.5 hPa52°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi87 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 58°F 1023.1 hPa (-0.5)
44090 28 mi57 min 61°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 29 mi39 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 50°F 1022.7 hPa
FRXM3 29 mi39 min 47°F 45°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi39 min 48°F 65°F1022.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 35 mi39 min NE 1 G 1.9 49°F 60°F1022.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi39 min S 1.9 G 5.1 57°F 60°F1022.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi45 min Calm G 0 50°F 1022.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi102 min Calm 44°F 1023 hPa44°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi39 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 47°F 61°F1022.7 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi39 min Calm G 1 45°F 1022.6 hPa45°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 43 mi45 min Calm G 1 45°F 62°F1022.2 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 46 mi44 min 63°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi34 minW 410.00 miFair42°F41°F96%1022.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair38°F37°F100%1022.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi31 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F41°F93%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4CalmW5NW3CalmNW9NW7NW8NW11NW9W7NW7CalmCalmCalmNW5NW9NW7W4NW4NW6NW5W5NW5
2 days agoN15
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Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts
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Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:28 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:18 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:46 PM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT     1.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.51.410.9110.90.90.911.11.51.921.81.61.51.41.10.90.70.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     3.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     -3.33 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     0.14 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     3.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     -3.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.15 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.23.43.22.3-1.4-2.9-3.3-3-2.2-1.11.32.12.6332.4-0.7-2.7-3.4-3.3-2.6-1.60.81.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.