Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 3:07 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405181430;;410341 Fzus51 Kcle 180748 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 348 am edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-181430- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 348 am edt Sat may 18 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon - .
Today - East winds 10 knots or less. Areas of dense fog this morning, then patchy dense fog this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Areas of dense fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 181332 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 932 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure will meander across the region today before a ridge builds over the forecast area this evening into Sunday.
The ridge will continue to influence the area through Tuesday afternoon, but expect the next system to approach Tuesday night and cross the local area Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
9:30 AM Update: Was able to get the Dense Fog Advisory off the board around 9 AM due to improving visibilites per observations and webcams.
Otherwise, did tweak POPs this afternoon to get slight chance wording in along and west of I-75 as a few hi-res models develop a bit of convection along a lake-aided boundary this afternoon.
The remainder of the forecast is on track and unchanged, with slight chances for showers or thunder well inland from the lake this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Advection fog and low stratus have developed across the area early this morning. Fog started off patchy with more low stratus, but starting to see a transition to dense fog and expect this trend to continue through daybreak. The Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded west to include Ottawa and Sandusky counties due to dense fog being reported at KPCW (Port Clinton)
and shown on nearby traffic cams. Guidance suggests that the dense fog could expand as far west as the Toledo area this morning, so will need to keep an eye on visibilities over the next few hours. Would not be surprised if the Dense Fog Advisory needed to be expanded westward by the 630 AM update. Locations outside of the advisory will likely have patchy dense fog before daybreak this morning, primarily in low- lying areas. Fog should begin to dissipate as diurnal mixing kicks in by mid- morning, however some fog may linger along the immediate lakeshore since fog will likely persist over the lake through much of today.

Outside of the morning fog, the forecast will be relatively quiet for most of the area today. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop in the southern reaches of the CWA this afternoon, but coverage should be low given weak forcing.
Any showers/storms that develop may move slowly due to weak steering flow, but PWAT values will be lower than Friday so the flooding risk is low. Today will be warm and still a touch muggy with highs in mid to upper 70s to lower 80s. Locations along the immediate lakeshore may be a few degrees cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another round of patchy fog (possibly dense in spots) is likely tonight as skies clear and winds remain light and overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s.
Dry weather is expected for most of Sunday as a ridge builds east over the area, but a shortwave cresting the ridge may allow a few showers/thunderstorms to sneak close to the I-75 corridor by late Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be even warmer and expect widespread highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Locations near the I-75 corridor are expected to see high temps in the mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An upper ridge and surface high pressure will be across the area on Sunday night into Monday. This will keep a quiet forecast for the first part of the short term forecast period. Return flow across the region along with a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will enter through the day on Monday and could allow for some isolated to scattered rain chances on Monday night into Tuesday. The upper ridge over the region will be quite strong and believe that any rain will be very limited and have just some low PoPs, mostly confined to the western half of the forecast area. A larger upper trough will enter the central CONUS on Tuesday and advance east toward the forecast area, breaking down the upper ridge into the region. Some scattered convection may develop and move into the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night and have some chance PoPs to reflect this. Temperatures through the period will be warm for the 3rd week of May with 80s expected, which may only grow in magnitude, if rain doesn't materialize.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The full pattern breakdown will occur on Wednesday as the main upper trough enters the area with a pair of stronger shortwaves moving through the upper flow on Wednesday late morning and again on Wednesday night. A cold front will also enter the region and this feature will likely help focus in a larger shower and storm threat and have likely PoPs still reflected into the forecast. The environment for an organized severe threat on Wednesday is looking a touch better with plenty of moisture and instability to work with and good jet energy aloft. This will be a day to continue to monitor into next week. Continued upper troughiness across the region on Thursday, along with some consideration for the pattern to slow, will allow for slight chance to chance PoPs to continue in the forecast for Thursday. Some brief upper ridging will return for Friday to allow for a quiet window but there is some disparity in the extend guidance to know how long this may persist for the area.
Temperatures will start warm on Wednesday in the 80s ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will return closer to normal for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Widespread IFR and LIFR with fog and low stratus will improve to VFR by mid to late morning and VFR should prevail through at least tonight. Can't rule out a few showers or thunderstorms south of a line from roughly KFDY to KCAK, but the chances are very low. Additional fog and low stratus will likely develop overnight, likely ushering non-VFR conditions to at least the eastern half of the area after about 06-09Z.

Winds will be variable and 5 knots or less through the entire TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE
A highly saturated air mass over Lake Erie this morning has allowed for fog and low stratus to develop over the lake. These poor visibility conditions will persist through the day today with light flow and have a Dense Fog Advisory through 4 PM this afternoon. Fog should still be around the region tonight into Sunday and can see an extension in the fog headline. Other than the visibility over the next 24 or so hours, the forecast for Lake Erie through the first half of next week is very quiet with limited weather of note. High pressure will return for the weekend and light, generally northeast flow will be favored across the area for the weekend. A warm front will cross the lake for Monday and southeast flow will return to the lake. Southerly flow will continue into Tuesday and increase ahead of a low pressure system. This low pressure system will deepen considerably over the region on Wednesday, as it moves across Lake Superior. This feature will extend a cold front across the lake on Wednesday afternoon and evening and flow will veer to the southwest.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>149-162>169.

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