Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 4:22 AM   Moonset 6:11 PM

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LEZ143 Expires:202405060815;;696675 Fzus51 Kcle 060137 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 937 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-060815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 937 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 54 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 061323 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 923 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north for today. A warm front comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night, and then another low pressure system Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
920 AM Update...
Some patchy fog and lower stratus are still present at the moment, but conditions are improving. No significant changes needed with this update; only made small changes to hourly temps/dew points and PoPs based on latest high resolution guidance and observations.

Previous Discussion...
Cold front is now through the CWA and will be settling to the south of the CWA across the Ohio Valley through much of the near term forecast period. Surface based high pressure that has been building over the Great Lakes will slowly drift eastward into eastern Ontario by Tuesday morning. This will be a dry period for much of the CWA as it does so despite upper level PVA moving in from the southwest. The column will be too dry without much in the way of layer humidity except in the far southern zones. POPs will creep in from the south later today into the chance category before retreating back to the south tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level low will eject out of the intermountain west into the northern plains region with an associated surface frontal system that will be occluding. This will still be enough to push the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary back northeastward heading into the Tuesday time frame. Back into the warm sector and a more unstable environment, bringing a solid potential for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday. Forecast soundings show deep layer CAPE above the mixing layer in higher low/mid level RH. Despite the modest flows, a wind threat arises from dry air intrusions around 600mb and an inverted V signature in the lowest 50- 75mb of the profile. Also looking at jet entrance aloft with winds increasing to 60-70kts above 400mb. Back to the low levels once again, also have around 90 degrees of veering of the low level winds that could aid in rotation. These features are more pronounced in the western half of the CWA The lakeshore areas will be influenced by ENE winds off the lake which will could keep the warm front from moving further north over the lake. Anything that fires north over the lake will be reliant on reaching the unstable layer off the strong surface inversion from the cold lake. Cooler readings for forecast high temperatures today, but warmer by roughly 10-12 degrees going into Tuesday back in the warm sector with widespread 70s in the forecast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward Tuesday night as a mid/upper-level trough lingers over the north-central U.S. and a shortwave disturbance ejects from the trough and toward the Upper Great Lakes. This weather pattern evolution and dissipation of a Lake Erie lake breeze early Tuesday evening will allow the synoptic warm front to begin to sweep NE'ward from near the southern shore of Lake Erie early Tuesday evening and exit the rest of our CWA during the predawn hours of Wednesday morning.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected due to the following: Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and ahead of the shortwave trough axis releasing weak to moderate elevated instability and convergence/moist ascent along the surface warm front releasing weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE. Organized strong to severe thunderstorms are possible given the expected thermodynamics and moderate to strong effective bulk shear. Overnight lows should reach the mid 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Wednesday and fair weather is expected region-wide by then as a weak surface ridge builds from the Middle MS Valley area and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence.

Odds favor fair weather on Wednesday as the shortwave trough drifts E'ward across the Upper Great Lakes and the weak ridge at the surface and aloft continues to build from the Middle MS Valley area.
Late afternoon highs should reach mainly the mid 70's to lower 80's amidst a net low-level WAA regime on the synoptic scale, but sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~54F Lake Erie and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient should allow a lake breeze to develop during the late morning through early evening. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 60's to lower 70's within several miles of the lake due to the lake breeze.

The ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward Wednesday night and is followed by the mid/upper-level trough amplifying and advancing from the north-central U.S. toward the eastern Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley through Thursday night. At the surface, the attendant low should move generally E'ward across the southern Great Lakes on Thursday through Thursday night. This low track should allow the trailing cold front to sweep E'ward through our region on Thursday and be followed by a residual trough over the Great Lakes stemming from expansion of relatively-warm lake-modified air as a much colder air mass overspreads the lakes. Overnight lows should reach the 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Thursday as net low-level WAA persists ahead of the surface low.
Low-level CAA behind the cold front should contribute to daytime highs reaching the 60's to lower 70's on Thursday and overnight lows reaching the mid 40's to lower 50's by daybreak Friday. Scattered and periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday night through Thursday night due to moist isentropic ascent ahead of the axes of shortwave disturbances and convergence/moist ascent along the cold front releasing instability, including elevated instability. The seeder-feeder process amidst a sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column may allow precip to become lake- enhanced over and generally southeast of Lake Erie overnight Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday through Friday evening due to the combination of additional shortwave trough axes advancing generally E'ward across our region, the aforementioned potential for lake-enhancement of precip over and generally southeast of Lake Erie, and the potential for self-destructive sunshine Friday afternoon through early evening. Daytime highs should reach only the mid 50's to lower 60's amidst the unusually-cold air mass for May 10th. Fair weather is then expected Saturday morning as the longwave trough aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances exit E'ward from the eastern Great Lakes region, as does the attendant surface trough, and a ridge and the surface and aloft presses E'ward across our CWA and vicinity. Overnight lows should reach the 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Saturday. The ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward later Saturday through Sunday as another trough at the surface and aloft overspreads our region from the western Great Lakes and vicinity. Favorable forcing for ascent and thermodynamics should support development of additional showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Daily afternoon highs should reach mainly the lower to mid 60's this weekend. Lows should once again reach the 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Overnight LIFR fog and IFR/MVFR ceilings will dissipate in the morning hours as high pressure builds into the region leaving the area in VFR BKN sky cover 3-5kft, coming back down to MVFR ceilings again tonight with the approach of a warm front from the southwest. Winds generally easterly in this environment out ahead of the warm front less than 10kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

MARINE
Winds of about 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected through Wednesday. Winds trend primarily NE'erly to E'erly as a ridge builds E'ward across the eastern Great Lakes region through tonight and then begins to exit E'ward on Tuesday as a warm front approaches Lake Erie from the Lower and Middle OH Valley.
Winds will trend onshore during the late morning through early evening hours of today and especially Tuesday due to the development of a lake breeze circulation. The warm front is expected to sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie Tuesday night and cause NE'erly to SE'erly winds to veer to SW'erly. The SW'erly winds are expected to become variable in direction on Wednesday as a weak ridge builds from the Middle MS Valley and another lake breeze circulation likely develops during the late morning through early evening.

Primarily NE'erly to E'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots develop Wednesday night and then back gradually toward NW'erly to W'erly on Thursday through Friday. Simultaneously, a low moves generally E'ward across the southern Great Lakes toward southern New England and is followed by a residual trough over the Great Lakes. Waves are forecast to mainly be 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are expected, especially on Thursday night into Friday, when a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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