Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 9:53 AM   Moonset 12:48 AM

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LEZ143 Expires:202405130215;;095446 Fzus51 Kcle 121941 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 341 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-130215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 341 pm edt Sun may 12 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 61 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 130733 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 333 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will linger over the area before a cold front moves east late tonight into early Tuesday. This front will slow as it moves southeast of the area as another low pressure system tracks east across the Ohio River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low pressure centered near James Bay is currently moving a warm front east just north of the area. The forcing along the front coupled with a weak LLJ has allowed showers to persist across Lake Erie, although they are weakening as they move east. Some of these scattered showers may clip far NE OH and NW PA over the next couple hours before the warm front moves east and the entire CWA is placed within the warm sector of the low. The biggest change with this forecast update is the timing of the associated cold front moving east. Models have slowed the onset of precipitation which will allow for today and the first part of tonight to remain dry. In addition, due to the delay in the frontal passage, clouds will take longer to build east which will allow diurnal heating and WAA to result in highs today reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

As the cold front slowly meanders towards the CWA tonight, an upper level trough will continue to support the development of a surface low near southern Missouri and Illinois. Once this trough becomes more progressive on Tuesday, the associated low will begin to track east across the Ohio River Valley and also allow the aforementioned cold front to finally move east.
Overnight lows will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. This system is quite tricky when it comes to precipitation timing as much of the synoptic support for showers does not move into the area until near the end of the period, but with moisture increasing across the area there is a potential for diurnal showers/thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday ahead of that forcing. Due to this, opted to maintain chance PoPs through Tuesday morning and then gradually increased PoPs to likely Tuesday afternoon with chance thunder. Will need to continue to monitor this system especially with the dramatic slow down in recent model runs. Tuesday highs will be cooler only climbing into the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure tracks across southern OH Tuesday night into with much of its energy being transfered to off the Middle Atlantic Coast. The best chances of showers should be Tuesday evening then we watch them move decease in coverage and decrease from west to east through Wednesday afternoon. At this point rainfall amounts should be between a tenth to a third of an inch. This all assuming that most of the thunderstorms remain south of the CWA High pressure briefly reaches over the region Thursday but the next storm system may impact the region by late Thursday night as a warm front lifts northeastward across the CWA Temperatures through the short term period are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal averages.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Models are struggling with the timing of storm systems moving through a progressive upper level flow. This makes the long term period difficult to create a forecast that will be consistent.
Current models bring a storm system across the region on Friday with showers and thunderstorms possible. The uncertainty is how quick these clear out in its wake Saturday into Sunday. These days could end up being dry but will carry low POP's in the forecast right now with the uncertatiny. Another storm system may arrive for Monday afternoon with another round of showers and thunderstorms possible.
The one thing that looks certain is that temperatures will be above seasonal averages through the long term.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR conditions will persist through this period with high pressure remaining in control. Currently, a low pressure system centered near Ontario/Quebec is moving an associated warm front east across the Great Lakes region which is the focus for shower development across Michigan. As this moves east, some of these showers may clip far NW PA possibly impacting KERI. However with lack of confidence in these showers maintaining themselves have opted to handle the window of possible precipitation with VCSH between 9-12Z. Throughout the day on Monday, a developing low pressure system over the Midwest will gradually push east towards the Ohio River Valley, but recent model guidance suggests this system slowing down and resulting in rainfall not expected until after this period.

Southwest winds of 5-10 knots will increase this afternoon to 10-12 knots, locally up to 15 knots for western terminals. Gusts up to 20 knots are possible along and west of I71 this afternoon, but will calm as winds weaken to 5-10 knots and shift to become southerly.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Monday night through Wednesday.

MARINE
Southerly offshore flow is expected through Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front that crosses the lake by Tuesday afternoon. North to northeast winds are then expected into Wednesday.The strongest winds likely occur Tuesday night into Wednesday with 10 to 20 knots anticipated. Waves likely build to 2 to 4 feet near and west of Geneva on the lake. Winds becoming lighter Wednesday night into Thursday with light and variable conditions. Winds increase from the south once again Thursday night into Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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