Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Hampton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:31 PM EST (04:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:25PMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 946 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect Thursday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday evening through late Thursday night...
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 946 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds to the north, then northeast through Thursday morning. A storm system approaches from the south impacting the waters with precipitation and gusty winds from mid day Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front approaches on Sunday night then crosses the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Hampton, CT
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location: 41.54, -72.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 150312
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1012 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight, before
retreating into new england Thursday. An area of low pressure
will develop over the tennessee valley Thursday, with a second
area of low pressure moving up the east coast Thursday night.

The low will likely pass just east of montauk early Friday,
then into the canadian maritimes Friday night. A broad area of
high pressure builds in for the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
A deep layer northern stream ridge builds over the area
overnight. While associated subsidence under the ridge will keep
things dry, will see high clouds increase overnight per latest
satellite trends.

Still appear on track for a freeze across nyc (except staten
island) - the only locations in the CWA yet to experience a
freeze this fall - so left freeze warning for there as is.

Lows will be unseasonably cold, in the low teens across the
northern zones and low 20s along the coast.

Short term Thursday night through 6 pm Thursday
The next impactful storm system will move into the region on
Thursday bringing our first good bout of snow chances for the
season. The low pressure tracking north up the east coast will
bring a slug of moisture and gusty winds starting by mid-day
Thursday. The timing of the system looks to bring the initial
round of precip as snow to much of the region by mid day.

Heaviest snowfall is expected along the coast during the first
few hours of the afternoon, generally between 1 and 4 pm before
switching over to rain as warmer air intrudes. This transition
from snow to rain will begin along the coast nyc and move inland
through the evening, with some sleet or freezing rain possible
during the transition as well. As for snowfall amounts, for the
nyc long island area expecting a slushy inch or two, with more
accumulation likely on grassy surfaces. Meanwhile, areas along
the coast can expect 1-3 inches with 2-4 inches further inland.

Given these amounts and the fact that this is our first real
winter system of the season, a winter weather advisory has been
issued Thursday afternoon night for much of the region,
excluding long island and the nyc metro. Ice accretion to around
a quarter inch is possible in the hudson valley where the
predominant ely flow will likely remain backed further to the
north. Temperatures during the day reach the low 30s inland and
the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.

Model agreement is fairly good in placing the low center over
the south central nj coast by early Friday morning. As it
approaches and deepens, the surface pressure gradient tightens
significantly while at the same time a good LLJ moves over the
coast. This will mean gusty winds Thursday night into Friday,
especially along the coast.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
The precipitation winds down Friday and winds decrease as the
low moves off and our pressure gradient relaxes. Under zonal
flow aloft and a building surface high, the weather should be
dry and quiet late Friday and Saturday. Low chcs for pcpn on sun
thru Mon with a frontal system potentially impacting the area.

There remain some significant timing and track differences
between the GFS and ecmwf, so a blended approach was used for
the fcst. The model consensus was for dry weather on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
High pressure builds in from the west through tonight before
retreating into new england on Thursday. Low pressure approaches
the region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night before
departing to the canadian maritimes on Friday.

Conditions will remainVFR through Thursday morning before
lowering to MVFR then ifr in the afternoon as snow or a
snow sleet mix overspreads the region between 18-20z. For the
city, long island, and southern connecticut terminals, an
initial burst of snow is possible as precipitation begins,
otherwise a snow sleet mix should quickly change to a mix of
rain and sleet, then ultimately all rain by around 00z. Across
the lower hudson valley terminals, precipitation is expected to
start as snow before gradually transitioning to a mix of snow
and sleet, then freezing rain through the end of the TAF period.

Frozen freezing precipitation will linger the longest at kswf.

Winds will shift from NW tonight to ene by Thursday morning. Ene
winds then become gusty by late afternoon, with gusts 25-30kt
into the evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 26 mi31 min N 11 G 16 31°F 54°F1035.9 hPa (+1.3)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi31 min N 6 G 8.9 30°F 47°F1035.6 hPa (+1.9)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 28 mi46 min N 16 G 19 33°F 55°F2 ft
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi31 min N 6 G 8 1035.9 hPa (+1.7)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi31 min 50°F1035.4 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi36 minVar 410.00 miFair28°F10°F47%1034.9 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT14 mi38 minN 510.00 miFair28°F5°F37%1036.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi38 minNNW 510.00 miFair28°F10°F49%1036.2 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT24 mi39 minN 610.00 miFair27°F5°F39%1036.1 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33S7
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Higganum Creek, Connecticut
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Higganum Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:57 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:49 AM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:02 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:32 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.91.41.92.22.32.221.71.51.20.90.91.11.72.12.42.52.42.21.91.51.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for East Haddam, Connecticut
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East Haddam
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:44 AM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:17 AM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:31 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:53 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.31.82.22.52.52.42.11.81.61.20.911.522.52.72.82.62.31.91.61.10.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.