Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Balmville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:27 PM EDT (18:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:36AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1021 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1021 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. One cold front will pass east of long island this morning, while another passes through tonight. High pressure will follow from Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will move across from Wednesday into Wednesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Balmville, NY
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location: 41.54, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 191435
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1035 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
One cold front will pass east of long island this morning, while
another passes through tonight. High pressure will follow from
Sunday through Tuesday. A frontal system will move across from
Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed again by high pressure.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Shortwave trough aloft over the great lakes this morning will
pivot toward the region late today.

A weak surface trough will linger today, with a cold front
approaching from the west for tonight.

A much drier air mass in the low mid levels will advect mix down
today.

With shortwave energy still well west and mid-level warming,
forcing and instability will be limited today. Would mainly
expect some diurnal CU along and north of afternoon surface sea
breeze boundaries. The mostly sunny conditions and warm temps
aloft will allow temps to quickly rise well into the 80s
today, around 90 nyc nj metro. Heat indices will run close to
air temperatures.

Residual southerly swells of 3-4 ft @ 6-7 sec period this
morning favor a high rip current risk for the eastern long
island ocean beaches, and a moderate risk farther west. These
swells will continue to slowly subside into this evening.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Tuesday
Vigorous shortwave trough approaches this evening and crosses the
region tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front crosses the region
this evening. High-res models indicating some organized convection
developing tracking across central pa ny late this afternoon along
this front, but expectation is that this activity quickly weakens as
it approaches and crosses into the NW hills this evening due to lack
of instability. Elsewhere, a low chance for an isolated shower
overnight with shortwave frontal passage.

Zonal upper flow ensues for Sun into mon. At the surface... High
pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Sunday night, and then
gradually translates to the south and southeast Sunday night. The
result will be a sunny, comfortably dry, and seasonably warm day on
Sunday.

As the high sinks south and east, heat and humidity will build
build into the region Monday into Tuesday. Highs will generally be
well into the 80s to lower 90s on Monday, and possibly lower to mid
90s for Tuesday.

Models are indicating potential for isolated diurnal convection on
Tuesday as instability increases and convectively induced vort
energy rotates around the upper ridge. Low predictability at this
point.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
Decent model agreement with shortwave energy digging into the
great lakes Tue into Tue night and then towards the NE us on
wed. An associated frontal system will bring the next chance for
organized shower and TSTM activity late Tue into wed.

A significant cool down then looks to follow for the end of the
week. The models have been very consistent with this signal,
although the exact magnitude of the cold airmass remains in
question. It would not be totally surprising to see some lows in
the furthest outlying areas touch the upr 40s next weekend.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
A secondary cold front will move across the region tonight,
perhaps bringing an isolated shower to kswf. This will be
followed by high pressure.

Vfr through the TAF period.

W-nw flow under 10 kt will continue this morning before winds
back to the SW this afternoon. A few gusts to around 15kt are
possible at the city terminals late this afternoon into early
evening. Winds subside again tonight, becoming variable in
direction but overall exhibiting a west to southwest flow for
city and coastal terminals.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday-Monday night Vfr.

Tuesday-Tuesday night A chance of showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR or lower conditions possible,otherwiseVFR. SW gusts
to 15-20 kt late afternoon and at night.

Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible. SW gusts 15-20 kt.

Marine
Sca has been cancelled as ocean season continue to subside.

Winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold frontal passage
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ocean seas may reach advy levels
Tuesday night, and continue in southerly swells into Wed night.

Hydrology
Impacts from potential showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday are uncertain at this point.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz080-
081.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Goodman nv
near term... Goodman nv
short term... Nv
long term... Jmc nv
aviation... Feb jm
marine... Goodman nv
hydrology... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 33 mi57 min 1010 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi45 min SSW 11 G 16 81°F 75°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY7 mi42 minW 8 G 1520.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1011.8 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY9 mi34 minW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F63°F51%1009.8 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY15 mi33 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds83°F64°F53%1010.7 hPa

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW7SW7SW4W12CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5W5W7W5W4W4W4W6NW7W10W6W10W8
G15
1 day ago5W64666566455555CalmCalmCalmCalm4SW7--5SW6
2 days agoN7NW8544CalmCalm44CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm44444444Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:35 AM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:55 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.82.11.40.70.1-0.10.31.11.92.6332.721.30.70.2-0.10.31.22.12.93.43.6

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:32 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.2-0.8-0.20.40.80.80.60.1-0.5-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.8-0.30.511.110.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.