Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Balmville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday July 22, 2017 10:38 PM EDT (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:48AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1019 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1019 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks along it, this front then sags farther to the south on Sunday after the low passes. Another low then moves along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by Monday morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves through the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east Tuesday. High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday through Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night. Another wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Balmville, NY
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location: 41.54, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230056
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
856 pm edt Sat jul 22 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary remains to our south tonight as a wave of
low pressure tracks along it, this front then sags farther to
the south on Sunday after the low passes. Another low then
moves along the front, tracking off the mid-atlantic coast by
Monday morning. Still another area of low pressure that moves
through the region Monday and Monday night, exits to the east
Tuesday. High pressure builds over the northeast late Tuesday
through Wednesday, then drifts off the coast Wednesday night.

Another wave of low pressure follows for Wednesday night into
Friday, with a cold front moving through Friday. High pressure
returns Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
With the main area of instability to the south of the region,
and southwest, across central and southern new jersey, to south
of long island have updated the probabilities and mention of
thunder through tonight, with chance and isolated wording for
thunderstorms. Also, with the main threat of stronger storms to
the south removed any enhanced wording. The best storm was
tracking across southeastern pennsylvania and moving into
southern new jersey. The hrrr was also indication this downward
trend for the stronger convection to remain to the south.

Once shortwave exits, the overnight hours should be mainly dry,
except for possibly some lingering showers mainly over long
island.

Lows tonight should be around 5 degrees above normal.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches through this evening.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
The region should be under locally zonal flow Sunday. With no
shortwaves of note forecast to move over the region in this
flow, it should be mainly dry. However, this is quite a change
from the previous forecast. So to trend things, went with
slight chance pops over western zones and mainly dry over
eastern zones through late afternoon, then increased pops to
chance over far western zones and slight chance throughout
elsewhere (reflecting climatological trends for convection).

A sharpening 700-500 hpa trough developing closed low moving
into the great lakes Sunday night, along with 850 hpa
frontogenesis, will produce an increasing threat of showers,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The pops increase from w
to e, to likely throughout by after midnight.

Onshore low-level flow should result in a mostly cloudy sky on
Sunday, limiting highs to near to slightly below normal levels
(mainly around 80-mid 80s). Lows Sunday night should be slightly
above normal due to cloud cover.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
ocean beaches Sunday.

Long term Monday through Saturday
An upper level shortwave and accompanying wave of surface low
pressure will be exiting to the east Monday night into early
Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be on-going at the
beginning of the extended forecast period. Instability and CAPE will
be marginal and increase somewhat during Monday, however may still
not be sufficient to support widespread convection, so will keep
isolated wording.

The upper westerly flow will be progressive through the period. A
weak ridge builds Monday night into Tuesday, and Wednesday. Then
another shortwave, with an embedded closed low, over the canadian
west coast Monday, opens and digs a more significant trough into
the eastern states Wednesday night into Thursday with a high
amplitude trough, of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal,
digging all the way to northern florida by Friday. The flow looked
to be still progressive with a surface low moving through
Thursday and Friday. However, there are hints that the upper low
will close off again Friday into Saturday and remain along the
northern coast into next weekend. At this time will keep with
persistence and the more progressive flow and keep Friday night
into Saturday dry as upper ridging builds to the north.

Temperatures through the extended period will be near to slightly
below seasonal normals.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
A weak cold front will remain nearly stationary just south of
the area through tonight. Low pressure will pass just south
along this front tonight. Expect mostlyVFR conditions through
the TAF period. Can not rule out some brief period of MVFR in
any heavier showers.

Have removed all thunder from tafs tonight. All lightning
activity remains south of the area terminals, where the best
dynamics remain. So will go with just showers for the next few
hours. After 04z-05z, we may transition over to more of a
stratiform rain event for a few hours, which is why there is ra
in the tafs. However, unsure if we see steady rain or we remain
showery. Either way, any precipitation comes to an end around
07-09z, with drier conditions for Sunday.

Winds will shift from the south to the northeast tonight, then shift
to the southeast on Sunday for most terminals, with speeds generally
10 kt or less.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night-Monday night Episodes of shra tsra with MVFR or
lower conditions possible.

Tuesday An am shower possible at kgon, otherwiseVFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night Vfr.

Thursday Sub-vfr possible in shra tsra

Marine
A light to moderate pressure gradient over the waters around
long island through Sunday night, will limits sustained winds
to 15 kt or less, ocean seas to 4 ft or less, and seas waves on
the non- ocean waters to 1 ft or less through then.

Winds, gusts, and seas will remain below small craft levels Monday
through Thursday. However, ocean seas may approach 5 feet Wednesday
night into Thursday as an increasing southerly flow develops ahead
of a cold front. Waves of low pressure passing through the waters
will bring a chance of thunderstorms Monday and again Thursday into
Thursday night.

Hydrology
Currently expecting around 1 4-1 2 inch of rainfall across
southern portions of the CWA and less than 1 4 of an inch of
rainfall elsewhere through Sunday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible with any stronger convection tonight,
mainly over southern zones. If the locally heavy rainfall
occurs, it could result in at most minor flooding of urban and
poor drainage areas.

An additional 1 2 to 1 inch of rainfall is likely from Sunday
night into Monday night, with locally higher amounts possible.

There is a small chance for minor flooding or urban and poor
drainage areas, if any experience locally heavy rainfall.

More rain is possible late Wednesday night through Friday.

Significant hydrologic impacts are not expected at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
With the approach of the new moon (sun), tides will run high
this weekend into early next week. Positive tidal departures of
1 2 to 1 ft will be needed for minor flooding during the night
time high tides during this time.

Minor flooding is possible starting with the high tide cycle
this evening, mainly in the western south shore bays of long
island. A bit more widespread minor flooding is possible Sunday
night with an E NE flow expected. The threat for minor flooding
could continue into Monday, with E NE flow progged to continue.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Maloit met
near term... Maloit met
short term... Maloit
long term... Met
aviation... Bc
marine... Maloit met
hydrology... Maloit met
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 33 mi69 min 75°F 1008 hPa74°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 46 mi54 min SSE 3.9 G 7.8 78°F 70°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi54 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 79°F 67°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi57 min E 4.1 G 7 76°F 1008 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY7 mi54 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%1009.1 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY9 mi46 minN 510.00 miOvercast72°F66°F82%1007.7 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY15 mi45 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW7NW7NW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW8W5W7W6CalmCalmE8E8E7SE6
1 day agoW10W8W8W8W7W7W5W7W12W10W9W7W6W14W14W10W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:42 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.632.21.40.70-0.3-00.81.82.633.12.82.11.30.60.1-0.200.9233.6

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:45 AM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:37 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:23 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:59 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:59 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.3-1-0.40.40.80.90.70.2-0.4-1-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.40.41.11.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.