Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 2:21 AM   Moonset 11:53 AM

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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 706 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this morning. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds, becoming E 1 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 6 seconds. Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 5 seconds, becoming ne 2 ft at 5 seconds and nw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Fri and Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Sat through Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 706 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Weak low pres will track south of new england today followed by a cold front from the west Thu. High pres over the maritimes will build south into new england Fri and Sat, then head to nova scotia Sun as another cold front crosses the region.

FXUS61 KBOX 011116 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 716 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Considerable cloudiness persists today, but peeks of sunshine are expected by early afternoon. A nearby front may bring a few showers near the coast Thursday. High pressure north of the region will bring dry and seasonable weather Friday and most of Saturday with onshore winds. An approaching front should bring showers late Saturday into Sunday. Dry and warmer weather is expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
3AM Update

Today

Scattered light showers just north of a weak surface low-pressure circulation continue to move across southern New England this evening. Based on the latest forecast guidance, we continue to expect this wave of low-pressure to be east of southern New England by the mid-morning hours. This will result in showers tapering off the east coast between about 06 and 09AM.

Northerly flow behind the departing low will aide in advecting cooler air from the north over over eastern MA for this afternoon.
Further west however, a mid-level ridge axis at 850 hPa will build eastward into western MA and CT with substantially warmer temperatures. Locations east of the ridge axis that experience prevailing north/northwesterly winds will be substantially cooler than those locations beneath the ridge axis where 925 hPa temps will be in the 10 to 13C range. As a result of this setup, we expect there to be a rather tight temperature gradient from west to east this afternoon. Generally expect the coolest locations to be east of the I-495 corridor and the warmest locations west of I-495 and especially in the CT River Valley. The area of greatest temperature uncertainty will be along I-495 where temperatures will depend on how far west the cooler air mass from the north/northeast is able to penetrate. Best guess is for high temps in the low to mid 50s along the immediate east coastline and upper 60s to low 70s in the CT River Valley. Central MA and RI will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s with temperatures gradually increasing from west to east.
Expect cloud cover for most of the areas across eastern MA and RI with some breaks of sun likely for locations west of Worcester beginning in the early afternoon hours. While it is likely to be a dry day for most there is a low chance for a pop up shower or two.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Tonight

Winds shift to the south overnight as weak surface high pressure builds east of southern New England. Generally expecting a quiet, cloudy, and seasonable night with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Shower chances increase toward day break across eastern and northeastern MA as a short-wave trough originating from over Ontario digs south/southeast over southern New England.

Tomorrow

Somewhat of another tricky forecast tomorrow, particularly across eastern MA where some showers will be possible during the day. A broad upper-level ridge axis will be building in from the west with a warmer air mass tomorrow, but east of the ridge axis an embedded short-wave trough at 500 hPa will be digging southeast over southern New England. Vorticity advection east of the short-wave trough axis should provide enough forcing to support periods of rain across portions of New England tomorrow, but how far south these showers develop is still a challenge in the forecast. There is fair agreement in recent model guidance that the best forcing associated with this disturbance will stay to the north and east leaving most of southern New England dry. Eastern MA and The Cape/Islands will have greater chances for seeing some showers develop as the short- wave digs east over The Gulf of Maine this afternoon. Forcing and moisture are limited, so we have set PoPs between 20 and 40 percent for areas generally along and east of the I-95 corridor. High temps across eastern MA and The Cape/Islands will be cooler than the rest of southern New England thanks to the showers/cloud cover associated with the short-wave aloft, but interior MA is set to have a very warm day with highs getting into the low to mid 70s west of I-495.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points:

* Overall quiet weather pattern ahead * Scattered showers late Saturday into Sunday * Warmup early next week

Fairly good agreement among models that upper ridge will build over New England Fri and most of Sat maintaining dry weather. Normally we would expect a significant warmup but in the lower levels, high pressure to the north of the region will maintain an onshore flow of cooler air, even into the interior (though it will be warmer there).

There are some timing differences with respect to arrival of showers in Sat-Sun timeframe. 00z GFS is most aggressive and is an outlier when compared to its ensembles as well as other medium range models.
Additionally, it maintains upper ridge over SNE through most of day Sat which by pattern recognition would keep any showers to our west.
It does appear that scattered showers will arrive late in the day but especially Sat night into Sun as upper ridge shifts offshore and cold front approaches from Great Lakes.

Beyond the weekend, looks dry with springtime warmth early next week as high pressure builds offshore and brings milder S/SW flow, though usual south-facing coastlines along South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands will be kept cooler with onshore flow. Our next chances for showers looks to be Wed as closed upper low lifts into Great Lakes and next cold front approaches SNE.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update: Moderate confidence.

Last of -SHRA will move offshore through 14z as dense fog near ORH/ACK gradually lifts. Ceilings stay MVFR through morning but could dip to IFR for a time, mainly near coast. We do think ceilings improve to lower-end VFR during afternoon, but ceilings return to MVFR/IFR tonight, then slowly improve to VFR Thu.

E/NE winds prevail today before veering to S tonight and Thu.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Ceilings may briefly lower to IFR through 14-15z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tomorrow

Low pressure moves east of the coastal waters today supporting northeast winds over the coastal waters for the first half of the day. As the day progresses, weak high pressure will build over the coastal waters leading to continued light/easterly flow across the marine zones. Overnight, winds shift to the south but remain modest around 5 to 10 knots. Winds increase out of the south/southwest tomorrow as an area of modest low-pressure moves over the coastal water. While winds will be stronger in the 10 to 12 knot range tomorrow, we don't anticipate conditions deteriorating enough to warrant SCY headlines. Seas will persistently be 2 feet or less through the end of the week.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Succonnesset Point
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Wed -- 02:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Succonnesset Point, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Cape Cod Canal
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Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT     3.46 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:19 AM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     -4.06 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:27 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:52 PM EDT     3.92 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:36 PM EDT     -0.17 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     -3.73 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots

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