Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Seabury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 9:27 AM EDT (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds across the waters early today will shift e. Low pres will pass S of long island late tonight, bringing showers and patchy fog from cape cod southward through early Thu. High pres returns with dry conditions on Fri. Low pres and an associated warm front will approach late Fri night, bringing showers Sat into Sat night. Showers may linger as a cold front approaches Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Seabury, MA
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location: 41.55, -70.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201123
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
723 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds across
new england. Showers are likely tonight south of the mass pike
as low pressure passes south of new england. High pressure from
canada brings dry weather Thursday and Friday. A cold front
them brings a chance of showers at times this weekend, followed
by dry weather early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning. Last several
runs of the hrrr have been advertising a stronger seabreeze for
a time later this morning into this afternoon. Given the light
flow in place right now, the location of a high pressure moving
offshore, and the past success of the hrrr dealing with the
seabreeze, have included it in the forecast with this morning
update. Definitely not the strongest signal, but one that makes
sense given the synoptic pattern.

Previous discussion...

high pressure across ny state will push SE during the day, so
expect light W winds to shift to SW during the afternoon. May
see enough mixing across E coastal areas to see gusts up to
around 20 kt this afternoon, mainly from boston north to cape
ann.

Clouds will increase during the afternoon as mid and upper
level moisture starts to approach ahead of the next system.

Expect seasonable temps today, up to the lower 80s across ne
mass to the ct valley, though only in the mid 70s or so along s
coastal areas with the onshore wind.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

00z model suite remains in pretty good agreement with the
approach of low pressure out of middle appalachians. Noted that
the models are trending a bit further S with the low pres as the
h5 long wave trough across the NE u.S. Into labrador and
newfoundland tends to flatten at its base S of new england.

The low moves off the nj coast around 09z or so with a rather
sharp northern extent of the precip shield. Looks like the best
chance for showers will occur across N ct ri into S coastal mass
where likely pops are in the forecast. The higher QPF amounts
area also suppressed to the s, so expect maybe 0.1 to 0.2
inches, possibly a bit higher on the islands. Looks like
conditions should remain mainly dry, but can't rule out a few
brief showers possibly as far N as the mass pike.

Thursday...

leftover showers along S coastal areas should push offshore by
midday, though there is some timing issues amongst the model
suite during this timeframe. Leaned toward the somewhat faster
gfs ggem timing. Skies should become mostly clear during the
afternoon, though a few clouds may linger across CAPE cod and
the islands.

It will be a cooler day on Thursday along the mass E coast as
winds become e-ne by around midday or early afternoon. Temps
there will only top off in the mid 60s to lower 70s, coolest on
the outer CAPE and nantucket, ranging to the lower 80s across
the ct valley.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry and seasonable on Friday
* unsettled weather for this weekend
* dry weather early next week
overview...

20 00z guidance continues to show improved agreement in the mid
level pattern from earlier cycles. This agreement still breaks
down in some of the finer details Saturday night into Sunday,
but not to the point where confidence is lost in the overall
trends.

High pressure should move offshore, opening the door for a low
pressure to move through the great lakes into the saint lawrence
valley. This trajectory will force both the warm and cold fronts
of this system across southern new england sometime this
weekend. At this time, expecting an increasing risk for showers
late Friday night into Saturday, peaking about Saturday evening,
then diminishing into Sunday. A secondary cold front should
cause showers to linger later Sunday. This weekend still doesn't
look like a washout. Another high pressure should return with
dry weather early next week.

Not seeing any major deviations from normal temperatures for
this period. Perhaps a bit cooler than normal Saturday,
depending upon timing of a warm front and amount of sunshine.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today...VFR. May see brief MVFR vsbys in patchy fog INVOF kack
through around 14z. Winds shift to w-sw up to around 10 kt
inland, and 10-15 kt across E ma ri. Latest runs of the hrrr
indicate local seabreezes from about 15z-20z. Timing may be a
little off, but thinking a brief seabreeze will develop at spots
until SW winds increase. May see gusts up to 20 kt on portions
of CAPE cod after 20z or so.

Tonight... MainlyVFR. May see brief MVFR vsbys in patchy fog
along S coastal terminals around or after 04z. Scattered -shra
move from w-e this evening S of the mass pike. Best chance
across central and NE ct ri and S coastal mass with brief local
MVFR cigs. W-sw winds gusting to 15-20 kt this evening across
cape cod. Winds shift to light w-nw across the interior after
06z.

Thursday...VFR. Any leftover -shra along S coastal areas move
offshore by mid morning, though may linger until midday across
cape cod and the islands. N-nw winds shift to e-ne by around
midday, with some gusts to 20 kt along E coastal terminals
possible.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Moderate confidence on
duration and timing of seabreeze.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night through Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Shra likely.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today and tonight... Light W winds early today shift to sw, up
to 15-20 kt on the eastern waters late today. May see gusts up
to 25 kt late this afternoon into this evening on the eastern
outer waters, where seas may briefly build up to 4 ft. Small
craft advisory has been issued. Winds may gust up to 20 kt on
the lower end of narragansett bay into buzzards bay with locally
choppy seas this afternoon. Reduced visibility in showers and
patchy fog tonight mainly across the south coastal waters.

Thursday... N-nw winds early Thu will shift to e-ne by midday
thu with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Leftover reduced visibility
along S coastal waters through midday thu, then improving.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Rain showers likely.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain
showers likely, with isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt
this evening for anz250.

Synopsis... Belk evt
near term... Belk evt
short term... Evt
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk evt
marine... Belk evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi103 min Calm 70°F 1013 hPa60°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 10 mi40 min 70°F 65°F1013.1 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 11 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 66°F 65°F1 ft1013 hPa59°F
44090 22 mi28 min 64°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 27 mi40 min W 4.1 G 6 70°F 68°F1013.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi88 min N 4.1 G 4.1 63°F 1013.7 hPa (+1.2)
FRXM3 38 mi40 min 67°F 55°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi46 min 67°F 68°F1013.2 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi40 min W 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 1012.7 hPa
PRUR1 44 mi40 min 70°F 53°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi46 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 61°F1012.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi103 min NE 5.1 69°F 1013 hPa56°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi46 min NE 1 G 1.9 67°F 1013 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi40 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 69°F1012.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi40 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 67°F1013 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi38 min W 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 1 ft1013 hPa (+1.0)57°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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N6
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N4
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G15
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G19
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi33 minS 410.00 miFair72°F53°F53%1013.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA12 mi35 minWSW 710.00 miFair71°F59°F66%1012.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA14 mi32 minSSW 510.00 miFair72°F52°F50%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
G16
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N9N11
G36
N9
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N11N8N8N5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S7
1 day agoSW18
G25
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G27
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SW16W9
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W4NW6N10
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N11
G16
2 days agoCalmSW6CalmSE12SE11SE10SE7S9S8S6SW6SW4S4SW5S6SW6SW8SW8SW8SW7SW8SW14SW16SW15
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Succonnesset Point, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Succonnesset Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 12:13 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.61.11.51.92.121.71.20.70.2-0.100.30.71.21.61.921.91.51.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     4.11 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:24 AM EDT     -4.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:37 AM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     4.40 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:17 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     -4.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:13 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.13.93.32-2.4-3.9-4.6-4.5-3.8-2.41.93.54.24.44.13.41.7-2.7-4-4.3-4.1-3.2-1.42.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.