Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Seabury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:33PM Monday September 25, 2017 2:51 PM EDT (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 116 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
This afternoon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure over the eastern usa will bring light wind and fair weather to the waters through Tuesday. Southerly swell from hurricane maria will continue to move north into the waters and linger for much of the week. A cold front from canada will cross the waters later Wednesday or early Thursday. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Seabury, MA
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location: 41.55, -70.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251839
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
239 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure covering the northeast u.S. Will bring fair, warm
weather to southern new england through Wednesday. A cold front
combined with moisture from maria may impact the region with
possibly scattered showers Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the
front, turning much cooler and lower humidity later Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Hurricane maria will bring
dangerous rough surf and rip currents to the south coast this
week, before passing well southeast of new england late this
week.

Near term until 7 pm this evening
150 pm update...

noting the low clouds and patchy fog are confined to nantucket
and portions of nantucket sound on latest goes-16 non-op prelim
satellite imagery and 17z observations. However, noting some
clouds pushing n-nw into ri and bi sounds and near the mouth of
buzzards bay and S end of vineyard sound, but tending to thin as
they shift into the S coasts of ri and mass.

Elsewhere, noting diurnal clouds developing across interior
areas, mainly across central W mass into N ct. With light e-ne
winds, skies remain mainly clear across eastern mass and most of
ri. Not seeing any shower activity developing across the region
as of 1750z, but do see some spotty showers across northern nh
and the mountains of me as well as northern cheshire county nh.

Will continue to monitor for possible spot showers, but at this
point expect to be very limited and short lived.

Temps as of 17z were mainly in the mid-upper 80s across the ct
and merrimack valleys, up to 90 degrees at kowd, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the immediate coast with
local sea breezes. With the light or calm winds in place, could
see temps go up another few degrees but, with the clouds inland
it may hold them down a bit. Will continue to monitor.

Short term 7 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
High pressure means light wind will continue. This means fair
weather with patchy fog inland. Meanwhile, the coastal fog and
stratus should again advect up across CAPE cod and islands.

There is a low risk that the fog could advance farther northwest
into southeast mass.

High pressure remains in control Tuesday, with a light wind
inland and light southeast wind at the shore. The NAM and ggem
show showers moving into south coastal ma and ri tonight. The
ggem then spreads showers across all of southern new england
Tuesday. Dynamic features show no support for this, and
convective parameters are stable through the period. We will
favor the GFS and ECMWF which keep any showers offshore, and
will show slight chance pops along the south coast late in the
day.

With dew points in the 60s, min temps should also be in the
60s. Sunshine and mixing on Tuesday will again bring the layer
up to about 850 mb, where temps are forecast at 16c-17c. This
favors mid 80s inland and cooler toward the shore.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* very warm and humid weather persist into Wednesday
* scattered showers possible Wednesday into Thursday
* pattern change to much cooler and less humid weather late
thu into the weekend
overall good model agreement on the large scale flow between
the ec, gfs, their ensembles, the UKMET and nam. Thus above
average forecast confidence this period. Ridge lingers across
the region into Wed and will result in warm (highs 80-85) and
humid conditions (dew pts 65-70!).

Despite hurricane maria remaining well south of new england mid
level moisture advects (k indices on the rise) northward into
our area beginning Wed and continuing into thu. Not much forcing
for ascent Wed given ridge axis lingers across the area. Thus
perhaps dry weather prevails wed.

However by Wed night and especially into Thu approaching short
wave and attending cold front will act on pwats of +2 std from
maria and provide a focus for showers late Wed into thu. Some
signs this could take the form of a pre - predecessor rainfall
event given frontal boundary and upper level jet streak. Thus
looks like a small window of opportunity for a period of heavy
rain over southeast ma Thu especially CAPE cod and the islands.

Will have to watch closely given tropical airmass.

Then big improvement with a noticeable cool down late Thu into
the weekend as low level flow becomes n-ne behind departing
fropa and maria. Seasonable for this time of year with highs
65-70 Fri Sat Sun and lows in the 40s along with low humidity. A
touch of fall for sure. Mainly dry too with the exception of a
few isolated brief diurnal showers possible Sat with cold pool
aloft and cyclonic flow.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

through 00z... High confidence.

Vfr and mainly dry weather today, other than a spot shower over
the high terrain this afternoon. Light sea breezes develop
along immediate E coast, and calm or light variable winds
elsewhere. Patchy ifr-lifr CIGS continue off and on from kcqx-
kack with mainlyVFR vsbys. May see MVFR-ifr vsbys return to
kack around 23z or 00z in fog.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR inland with patchy fog after 04z-05z. Expect low
stratus clouds and areas of fog with ifr-lifr conditions to
return to CAPE cod and the islands from 02z-04z. The low cigs
and fog may push n-nw into ri SE mass, and possibly as far N as
kbos, though lower confidence reaching there. Light variable or
calm winds.

Tuesday... Moderate to high confidence.

MainlyVFR. Areas of ifr-lifr early across CAPE cod and the
islands due to fog, with some improvement to MVFR by around
midday. Light s-se winds.

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence.

Vfr to start, then MVFR-ifr conditions moving in again. Lifr
conditions possible across CAPE cod and the islands.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf. Light sea breeze shifts to
light S from 00z-02z. Light s-se wind during tue.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ... High confidence.

Wed... Marginal MVFR-vfr with very low risk of rain.

Thu... Marginal MVFR-vfr southeast ma along with risk of
showers. Elsewhere improving toVFR and mainly dry.

Fri...VFR, dry weather and light winds.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Light e-ne winds will continue through Tuesday with high
pressure nearby. Meanwhile, increasing long period south swell
from hurricane maria will be moving into the waters with
potential for 5 to 7 foot seas over southern waters tonight and
7 to 9 feet on Tuesday. SCA for hazardous seas will continue. In
addition, areas of fog will result in poor vsbys at times,
especially south and east of CAPE cod and into nantucket and
vineyard sounds.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... High confidence.

Tue night and wed... Light winds with ridge overhead however
increasing large southerly swells from hurricane maria. Low risk
of scattered showers especially southern waters. Given moist
airmass rounds of fog expected.

Wed night into thu... Some heavy rain possible southeast ma
waters as moisture from maria combine with approaching cold
front. In addition areas of dense fog may be an issue.

Friday... Big improvement with front offshore and high pres
building in.

Tides coastal flooding
Long period swell from hurricane maria will be moving north
into the south coastal waters. Wnawave guidance indicating
increasing swell of 5-7 feet with a period of 15 seconds moving
reaching the south coastal waters tonight and up to 9 ft on
Tuesday. This will result in increasing high surf and dangerous
rip currents. High surf advisory will continue and will extend
through tue. It is likely the high surf will continue through
the week even as maria likely recurves out to sea well southeast
of new england.

Climate
So far, the high temp has reached 91 degrees at kbdl, setting
the record high for today's date. Record report has been sent,
but will be updated once final high has been reached. Max
readings so far are 84 degrees at both korh and kpvd, only a
degree off of tying the record at korh. Will continue to monitor
for possible record tying or setting readings through the
remainder of the afternoon.

Records jump up Tuesday to 89-95, while less mixing will lead
to lower MAX temps. So the chance for record highs diminishes
Tuesday.

The current record MAX temps for the two days... Today and
Tuesday... Are:
bos 89 1926 95 1881
orh 85 1970 91 1930
bdl 90 2007 93 2007
pvd 89 1920 89 2007
also, dew points in the 60s, while high for this time of year,
are not unprecedented. The daily extreme high values for dew
points are still in the low 70s, except for a couple of 68 and
69 values at worcester.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for maz020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am edt
Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb nocera
near term... Evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Wtb nocera evt
tides coastal flooding... Staff
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi67 min 4.1 75°F 1019 hPa69°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 10 mi52 min 70°F 67°F1018.3 hPa (-0.5)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 17 mi62 min NE 5.8 G 5.8 62°F 62°F1 ft1018.6 hPa (+0.0)62°F
44090 22 mi48 min 66°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 27 mi52 min NE 4.1 G 6 67°F 66°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi52 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 66°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.4)
FRXM3 38 mi52 min 77°F 67°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi52 min 78°F 68°F1018.6 hPa (-0.4)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi52 min SW 11 G 12 71°F 1017.1 hPa (-0.5)
PRUR1 44 mi52 min 70°F 66°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi52 min SW 5.1 G 7 68°F 66°F1018.2 hPa (+0.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi67 min SW 5.1 77°F 68°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 9.9 74°F 1018.1 hPa (-0.3)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi52 min S 12 G 12 71°F 69°F1017.8 hPa (-0.5)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi52 min S 13 G 14 67°F 68°F1018.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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NE4
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NE15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi57 minE 710.00 miFair81°F69°F70%1018.6 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA12 mi59 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F68°F79%1018.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA14 mi56 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds77°F70°F79%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmE4SE8SE6SE5SE7
1 day agoN7
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N9N7
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N8NE9NE7NE7N5NE6CalmN4CalmCalmN5N3CalmNE4N4NE54NE75E4NE4
2 days agoN18
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N13N12
G19
N16NE16
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for Succonnesset Point, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Succonnesset Point
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Mon -- 04:11 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:26 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.611.41.71.91.81.51.20.70.40.20.30.611.41.71.91.91.71.30.90.50.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:33 AM EDT     -0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     -4.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     3.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     -4.26 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     3.98 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.2-2-3.6-4.2-4.2-3.4-22.13.43.93.93.42.4-1.3-3.2-4.1-4.2-3.7-2.61.33.13.84

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.