Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Teaticket, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 6:32PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:45PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 431 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely this morning, then a chance of showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 431 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Gusty winds are expected today, with scattered showers possible. A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pres builds over new eng Thu and through this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Teaticket, MA
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location: 41.55, -70.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260827
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
427 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Synopsis
A tropical-like airmass will be over the region today characterized
by very humid conditions and warm temperatures. Widely scattered
showers with brief tropical downpours can be expected today. More
organized showers with embedded thunderstorms may occur this evening
as a cold front sweeps across the area. High pressure then brings
drier and much less humid air Thursday along with seasonable
temperatures. A weak wave of low pressure may track close enough to
the south coast for a period of light rain Thursday night into
Friday morning. Thereafter mainly dry weather with seasonable
temperatures will be featured for the weekend into early next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Radar shows that the main area of heaviest rain has moved off
the east coast of ma where it will brush by the tip of the cape
before moving on out to sea. Behind this shower chances remain
non-zero, but will be more showery in nature. Already apparent
on regional radar are several showers which have formed behind
the trailing edge of rain, from long island northeast toward the
ma coast. Some of the hi-res members have a handle on these
cells and would bring them up over the south coast later this
morning. Any of these cells could also have locally heavy
downpours as we saw overnight, given the ample moisture remains
through the atmospheric column.

Today we'll remain in the warm sector, with southerly winds
bringing us warm and humid conditions, quite unusual for late
september in new england. We'll see dewpoints climb into the low
70s this afternoon, and temperatures will feel positively
summer-like. Given 925 mb temps over 20c we'll see highs at the
surface toping out in the upper 70s. The strongest 45-50 kt core
of the 850 LLJ has moved offshore this morning, relieving us of
the heaviest rain by removing the ample lift. However, these
strong low level winds will remain over the area (850 winds
35-40 kts) during the day today. This will provide some lift for
potential storms through the day, but also allow for gusty
winds, especially over the waters and along the coast. Wind
speeds will likely fall just short of wind advisory criteria,
but given the relatively saturated ground and wind gusts 25-30
mph, could see some issues. We'll have all the ingredients for
some thunderstorms this afternoon, especially in northwest
zones. The SPC does include the western half of the CWA in their
slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Plenty of moisture to work
with (again, pwats remain ~2" with dewpoints in the upper 60s-
70s) and given the anomalous warmth we'll see some good
instability. Most models are showing a swath of instability
maximum stretching from western ct to north-central ma with cape
values up around 1,000 j kg and surface LI values around -3. One
mitigating factor will be how much daytime heating we can get,
with plenty of cloud cover expected, this would limit our
instability potential, and lapse rates remain marginal as well.

Additionally, while there is some good 0-6 km bulk shear of
35-40 kts this afternoon, is doesn't align with the best
instability. Main concerns with any cells that do develop will
be gusty winds and heavy downpours. As the main line of
convection reaches us after 0z it will likely be weakening as it
approaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
The cold front finally crosses the region from northwest to
southeast shutting off our precip chances and bringing in a much
drier atmospheric column. This will bring us clearing skies and
cooler, drier air. Dewpoints drop into the low 50s by Thursday
morning.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* a period of light rain possible Thu night into Fri morning
* mainly dry and seasonable late Fri into sat-sun-mon
Thursday...

northern stream short wave moving across eastern quebec will drag
its cold front across southern new england Wed night and offshore
thu morning, followed by 1020 mb high pres building into the region
thu afternoon. Good drying thru the column with negative k index
values advecting north to south into the area. This will support
abundant sunshine across the region, except mid high clouds may
linger along the south coast of ri ma including CAPE and islands
given wsw flow aloft. Nonetheless very pleasant conditions with
highs in the mid to upper 60s, dew pts in the 50s, light northeast
winds (although a bit breezy over CAPE cod and islands) and mostly
sunny conditions.

Thu night and Friday...

mid level flow remains from the SW which may support a weak frontal
wave to track close enough to the south coast for a period of very
light rain Thu night into Fri morning. Not expecting much qpf, more
nuisance type rainfall. All model guidance has now trended farther
north with this wave, which seems reasonable given the SW flow aloft
along the eastern seaboard. Otherwise seasonable temperatures and
light NE winds this period.

Saturday...

northern stream short wave moves across southern quebec with its
attending cold front sweeping across southern new england sat
afternoon. Not much moisture with this feature so expecting mainly a
dry frontal passage. Thus a fairly nice day with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s and partly to mostly sunny conditions.

Sunday...

very pleasant with post frontal airmass overspreading the region.

Cooler with highs only 60-65, slightly cooler than normal. However
it will feel very pleasant given mostly sunny conditions (some mid-
high morning clouds possible) and light winds as 1028 mb high
advects into the area. This may result in afternoon seabreezes.

Early next week...

dry pleasant weather likely lingers into mon. Thereafter ensembles
suggest a trend toward milder weather as subtropical ridge over the
southern states possibly builds northward.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today... Moderate confidence. Ifr lifr conditions expected to be
widespread through the morning. Given the amount of moisture
left behind from the rain and increasing dewpoint, areas of
low clouds and fog are likely. Conditions will improve slowly to
MVFR with scattered showers possible region-wide. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon evening ahead of a
cold front. CIGS and vsbys lower again to ifr late afternoon
evening beforeVFR returns with the cold frontal passage
overnight
Thursday...VFR conditions prevail with northeast winds.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra, patchy fg.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday through Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

Wednesday... Winds will diminish a bit this morning, but will
quickly increase again late this morning and this afternoon. Seas
will remain rough on the outer coastal waters. Thus the sca
headlines continue thru early Thursday for most of the waters,
with the exception of narragansett bay.

Tonight... Small craft advisory wind gusts 25-30 kts will slowly
be coming down through the night and early Thursday morning.

Seas remain rough, up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers continues.

Local visibilities 1 to 3 nm.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday through Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for anz231.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm edt this
afternoon for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Thursday for anz235-237-
250-254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera bw
near term... Bw
short term... Bw
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera bw
marine... Nocera bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi93 min 5.1 71°F 1019 hPa71°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi30 min 72°F 68°F1018.3 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 16 mi28 min S 19 G 23 70°F 68°F3 ft1018.7 hPa68°F
44090 24 mi18 min 65°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi78 min S 20 G 22 69°F 1018.7 hPa (-1.6)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi30 min S 8.9 G 19 69°F 65°F1019.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 33 mi30 min 72°F 68°F1018.3 hPa
FRXM3 34 mi30 min 72°F 71°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi30 min SSW 11 G 14 72°F 1017.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 40 mi30 min S 12 G 14 70°F 65°F1017.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 41 mi93 min SW 5.1 71°F 1018 hPa71°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 41 mi30 min WSW 5.1 G 12 71°F 1017.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi30 min S 11 G 14 70°F 67°F1017.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi36 min SSW 14 G 20 72°F 67°F1017.7 hPa
PVDR1 46 mi30 min S 8.9 G 12 72°F 1017.6 hPa72°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi30 min SSW 6 G 8 72°F 67°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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E4
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G15
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi23 minSSW 15 G 222.50 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1018.6 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA10 mi25 minS 143.00 miFog/Mist70°F70°F100%1018.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi82 minSSW 13 G 195.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist71°F70°F96%1018.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA23 mi25 minSSW 10 G 1910.00 miLight Rain72°F72°F100%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6E10E12
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1 day agoNE6NE19
G24
NE16
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NE16NE14
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NE15NE16NE12
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E6E9E11
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E11E9NE8E9E7NE9E6E5
2 days agoN3N5CalmN4N56E4S4SW7W5W4NW3CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmN3NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.