Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Teaticket, MA

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Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday June 20, 2019 8:58 AM EDT (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:02PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 716 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers with isolated tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers and tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will approach southern new england today and will cross the region tonight, exiting the coast Fri morning. High pres will build into the northeast from the great lakes over the weekend, then will move offshore Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Teaticket, MA
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location: 41.55, -70.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200941
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
541 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A humid airmass will bring scattered showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall today. Low
pressure crossing southern new england tonight will bring more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. The
low will move offshore Friday morning followed by drier air in
the afternoon, although a brief shower or thunderstorm is still
possible. Dry and seasonable weather returns for the weekend.

Warmer weather arrives early next week with a few
showers thunderstorms possible at times, but the majority of the
time will feature dry weather.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
540 am update...

cluster of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across
eastern pa nj were moving northeast and will impact much of our
region later this morning. Other scattered showers with brief
downpours were already impacting us. So expect wet weather to
impact much of the region for a time this morning.

Once this activity clears the area later this morning, another round
of showers storms is expected this afternoon, especially near
berkshires where models show some limited instability (assuming we
can destabilize behind this morning's showers). Hrrr shows this
nicely with a line of convection in eastern ny 19-20z which could
reach western ma a couple of hours later. My partner in crime hf
points out that there is even a low risk for strong or perhaps
severe storms near the berkshires, where there are decent
probabilities in the sig tor (sref) and MAX updraft helicity (href)
progs, although higher probabilities are focused farther sw.

Farther east, S SE flow will keep things stable with low clouds and
patchy fog for most of the day. Again, however, expect scattered
showers to pop up as deep moisture remains in place.

Meanwhile, most of the showers storms today will be focused to our
north, closer to frontal boundary where better dynamics and moisture
convergence are located.

Highs should top out in 70s, warmest in hartford springfield area
while along immediate coastline, temperatures may hold in 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Showers will become more widespread later tonight as low pressure
crosses sne. Also have potential for thunder with models showing
some mucape. Good setup for locally heavy rain with pwats over 2",
support from both upper and lower level jets, and larger scale lift
from approaching short wave. Forecast soundings show deep moist
profile with warm cloud depth of more than 12kft. Models, including
cams, are in good agreement that focus for heavier rainfall should
be near berkshires, but there is also possibility that we see a
second axis somewhere near hartford-boston corridor.

Rainfall through tonight should average from as little as 0.25 to
0.50" on CAPE cod and the islands, to 0.50 to 1.00" elsewhere, with
as much as 1.50" in western ma.

Since there is a lot of uncertainty as to where this will occur, we
do not have enough confidence to issue flash flood watches at this
time. Certainly there is the potential for the usual minor urban and
poor drainage flooding. The lowest flash flood guidance values,
around 2" hour, are located in western ma.

Interesting setup for Friday. Pattern looks more like something we
see in the cool season as opposed to late june, as models try
to close off 700 mb low which results in banding signature as
surface low heads offshore. With such an anomalously moist
airmass in place, there is once again the potential for a band
of heavy rain Friday morning, most likely in eastern ma. This
could be accompanied by brief drop in temperature, possibly into
50s before readings recover later in the morning.

Brief burst of 20-30 mph gusts possible as low heads offshore.

Drying works into region Friday afternoon but enough moisture may
linger along with weak surface convergence to help a shower or storm
pop up in the afternoon, again mainly in eastern ma. Highs recover
into 70s.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* dry seasonable this weekend with the warmer temps on sun
* summer-like temps early next week with the risk for a few
showers t-storms, but the majority of the time it will be dry
details...

Friday night...

drier air continues to work in behind the departing low pressure
system cold front. Low temperatures by daybreak Saturday should be
mainly in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday...

anomalous closed low over the canadian maritimes will result in
mainly a dry beautiful weekend across southern new england. Its
associated cold pool aloft with 500t near -20c may result in the low
risk for a spot shower or two sat. However, given dewpoints dropping
into the 40s that would probably be the worst case scenario and not
worth inserting into the forecast at this point. Highs mainly in the
75 to 80 degree range on Sat and it will be quite breezy. Bufkit
supporting west to northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph by afternoon
with a very well mixed atmosphere.

The closed upper low lifts further north across the canadian
maritimes sun. This will allow for rising height fields and warmer
temperatures on sun. Highs will mainly be between 80 and 85 but
with with less wind then Sat along with continued comfortable
humidity levels.

Monday through Wednesday...

closed low across the canadian maritimes weakens allowing for rising
height fields into southern new england. This should support highs
well up into the 80s for much of the first part of next week away
from any localized marine influences . There is the potential for
highs to approach 90 with perhaps the best chance for that on tue,
but confidence not enough to forecast those readings. That would
depend upon whether we avoid any subtle backdoor cold fronts and we
see enough sunshine, which is quite uncertain this far out.

While it does look like the vast majority of the time will feature
dry weather, a few showers t-storms will be possible. The main time
frame of concern would be Tue into Wed when an approaching shortwave
trough frontal boundary may provide a focus for a few showers t-
storms.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Mainly ifr lifr conditions expected to continue through tonight
in rounds of showers and a few embedded t-storms. Some brief
improvements to MVFR conditions are possible outside the
showers, but expect ifr lifr conditions to dominate into tonight.

Conditions gradually improve toVFR from W to E Friday,
although a pop-up shower or thunderstorm could develop Friday
afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night through Sunday night:VFR. Breezy.

Monday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Light S SE winds and flat seas today along with scattered showers at
times. Seas on outer waters south and east of CAPE cod build today
and should reach 5-6 ft tonight and Friday, so small craft
advisories have been posted. Showers and scattered thunderstorms
expected tonight along with areas of fog.

Low pressure exits eastern ma coast Friday morning. May have brief
burst of 20-25kt gusts during morning, especially on waters north
and east of CAPE cod, before winds subside by early afternoon.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday through Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm edt Friday
for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Jwd frank
near term... Frank jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Frank
aviation... Jwd frank
marine... Jwd frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi73 min SW 2.9 63°F 1007 hPa63°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi64 min 62°F 63°F1006.4 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 16 mi48 min 9.7 G 12 64°F
44090 24 mi58 min 61°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi64 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 62°F 66°F1006.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 33 mi64 min 64°F 70°F1006.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi64 min SSE 1 G 1.9 64°F 1006.3 hPa
FRXM3 34 mi64 min 64°F 63°F
PRUR1 39 mi64 min 63°F 62°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 40 mi64 min ESE 5.1 G 7 63°F 59°F1006.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 41 mi73 min Calm 63°F 1007 hPa62°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 41 mi64 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 1006.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi64 min E 1 G 1.9 63°F 67°F1006.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi64 min E 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 67°F1006.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi64 min S 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 65°F1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi63 minSE 54.00 miFog/Mist63°F62°F100%1006.8 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA10 mi65 minE 30.25 miFog62°F61°F96%1006.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi62 minESE 510.00 miOvercast61°F57°F90%1006.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA23 mi65 minENE 32.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist63°F61°F93%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4Calm5E6CalmSE7SE8SE7SE9SE7SE8SE9SE5SE6SE9SE4SE5SE8CalmSE3CalmCalmE4SE7
1 day agoS7S6S6S9S8S6SE6SE8SE6SE3SE6CalmNE7E7SE4NE6CalmNE4N5NE5NE6NE53NE4
2 days agoN11NE13N9NE8NE8NE9NE7SE3S6S7S5S6S5S5S5CalmCalmCalmSW5SW3SW5S5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Falmouth Heights
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Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.51.310.70.40.1-00.10.30.60.91.21.31.21.10.80.50.30.20.20.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
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Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     -0.14 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:38 AM EDT     -3.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT     3.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:05 PM EDT     -3.41 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:20 PM EDT     3.25 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.80.9-2.7-3.6-3.7-3.2-2.4-1.11.82.83.43.73.52.6-1.2-2.9-3.4-3.2-2.4-1.41.22.22.93.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.