Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 10:09 AM   Moonset 1:06 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 1016 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains overnight and through Monday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night. Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week. Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 130536 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 136 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains in the area overnight through Monday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday afternoon and night.
Low pressure will then bring rain to the area for mid week.
Another low pressure system may impact the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast mainly on track overnight with dry conditions expected.

An upper trough continues to move offshore as weak upper ridging continues to build in from the west. Mostly clear sky conditions are anticipated for overnight.

Low temps tonight will range from near 50 in NYC to the 40s elsewhere with some localized upper 30s where radiational cooling is more optimized.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Rising heights aloft and sfc high pressure should lead to a milder day on Mon, with highs reaching the lower 70s in NE NJ and rising into the 60s elsewhere on a S flow, with sea breeze enhancement along the coast during the afternoon. A shortwave trough riding atop the upper ridge associated with a warm front passing to the north should bring an increase in clouds and may trigger some late day end evening showers mainly inland, followed by clearing skies later Mon night. With the area in the warm sector lows Mon night should range from the upper 40s across SE CT and parts of eastern Long Island, to the 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
An upr low emerging onto the Plains will traverse the country and reach the local area by the middle of the week. Height falls as early as Tue aftn could trigger a few shwrs, particularly nwrn zones, along with a chc of tstms as well.

As a weak sfc low approaches Tue ngt and passes offshore on Wed, a more stratiform rain is expected, with the CWA on the nrn and wrn side of the low. Robust convection to the south could rob some of the moisture, but blended probs are high for pcpn, and moisture transport vectors do show at least some deeper moisture advecting in.

Sly flow will moderate temps on Tue, especially the ern 2/3 of the cwa, then flow comes around to the NE behind the low on Wed.
Temps lower on Wed with the rain and clouds, then a E-NE flow remains locked in right thru next weekend. Cooler temps Long Island and the immediate CT coast. The NBM was used for temps.

There are some model timing differences on Thu with the ECMWF slower to eject the upr low. The GFS has ridging building in quickly and a dry day. Stuck with the blended approach and only have slight chcs in the fcst. Dry on Fri with weak high pres along the E coast, then the next sys arrives for the weekend.
There remain timing differences, with the GFS continuing to be the quicker moving sys, similar to the model runs 24 hours ago.
The NBM was followed, with the best chcs remaining on Sat.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through the overnight before pushing offshore on Monday.

Generally VFR. MVFR is possible at KSWF late tonight into early Monday morning, with IFR possible at KHPN.

Winds remain light S-SW, to locally light and variable through the overnight with winds becoming southerly and increasing Monday afternoon. Gusts 15 to 20kt develop during the afternoon, peaking late in the day. Stronger winds with sea breeze enhancement likely at KJFK.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts Monday afternoon may be more occasional. Sustained winds at KJFK may be a few knots higher, especially late in the day.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast late.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast in the evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm.

Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR possible. NE wind gusts 15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Seas remain under 5 feet on the ocean waters overnight with wind gusts well below 25 kt. A better chance for more widespread 5-ft seas will come late day Mon into Mon evening as S flow ramps up to 15-20 kt.

Mrgnl SCA winds and seas also possible on the ocean Tue with S flow, then 4-8 ft seas on the ocean Wed. Winds on the protected waters are progged to remain blw SCA lvls attm.

Lingering seas and NE winds close to SCA lvls on the ocean Thu, and mrgnl winds elsewhere. Winds and seas blw SCA lvls Fri and possibly on Sat.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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