Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:45PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:16 PM EST (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 8:20PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1130 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Saturday afternoon...
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1130 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres will build S of the waters this weekend. Low pres will pass well W of the region late Monday, but its associated front will likely bring periods of rain and gusty southerly winds. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191502
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1002 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
Dry and seasonably cold conditions today, then a warming trend
this weekend with continued dry weather. A storm system will
bring the potential for heavy rain and strong coastal winds late
Monday night into Tuesday, but there is a risk of some wintry
mix ice across the interior late Monday and Monday night.

Blustery, dry and seasonably cold weather will follow Wednesday
and Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

wave clouds low level moisture trapped beneath the h85 dry
inversion as discerned from the latest 12z soundings moving with
the mean NW wind rearward of the departing mid-level h5 vortmax,
draining over N NE portions of ma towards the cape, wherever
there's less downsloping off the high terrain. The nuisance, low
cloud, overcast ceilings, likely will hamper daytime warming and
impact 2m temperatures. Yes, headaches even during benign days.

More than likely areas with deeper snowpack will be closer to
30 degrees, but those areas with less snowpack and abundant sun-
shine will likely warm up around the mid 30s. Winds behaving at
this time, a generally light westerly breeze.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

expect a general W wind flow in place as large high pressure
moves off the mid atlantic and carolina coast.

As winds become mainly zonal across the region, low level wind
data indicating a 35-40 kt jet up to h9 which increases to 45-50
kt by around 12z sat. However, some question on the low level
lapse rates and whether it will mix down. Noting very good low
level lapse rates at h95 especially across the southern waters
after 06z sat. Looks like will see a good gradient in place
which will drive the W winds, which will become gusty along the
immediate coast and especially across the waters after
midnight. Better shot will be across the waters.

Temps will fall to the mid 20s to around 30 early tonight, then
will level off or even rise a bit after midnight on w-sw winds
which will gust up to around 20-25 kt along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands.

Saturday...

still noting strong low level jet crossing the immediate coast
and across the coastal waters during sat, upwards to 45-50 kt
which could mix down with the good low level gradient in place.

Will see westerly wind gusts up to 20-25 kt across the higher
inland terrain, and up to 25-35 kt along the S coast, CAPE cod
and the islands. May need wind advisories for portions of the s
coast.

Another weak h5 short wave moves across northern new england.

Not expecting any precip with it, but could see mid and high
clouds cross central and northern mass during the day. Good warm
air advection sets up, with h85 temps up to +5c to +7c across
central and southern areas Sat morning on w-sw winds, though
cooler air may work southward during the afternoon as h85 temps
fall.

Have forecasted highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
lower ct valley to the coastal plain, but will be a bit cooler
along the S coast with the gusty winds off the colder waters as
well as over the higher inland terrain.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* dry and mild Sunday
* risk of some wintry mix ice in the interior late Mon mon night
* a period of heavy rain and strong coastal winds likely late mon
night into tue
* blustery and seasonably cold Wed thu
Sunday...

less wind Sunday with NW flow but continued mild with temps in the
40s across much of the region. Expect mostly sunny skies as axis of
mid high level moisture across northern new eng. Turning colder sun
night as cold front drops south across the region with strong high
pres building across canada and ridging nosing down into new eng.

Monday into Tuesday...

developing warm advection pattern ahead of warm front will lead
to some light precip developing Mon afternoon and more likely
mon night. With high pres to the N NE and good cold air damming
signature, thermal profiles should be cold enough for some
light snow mix ice in the interior with minor accum possible. A
brief mix is also possible at the onset in the coastal plain.

However, the main event will likely be late Mon night and especially
tue as potent mid level trough low lifts NE across the gt lakes.

Ptype mostly rain but ECMWF has low level cold air lingering into
tue morning across interior ma where some wintry mix ice may
continue before precip quickly changes to rain. Models indicate a
strong pre-frontal low level jet which will advect high pwat airmass
northward into new eng. Pwat and low level wind anomalies around
+2sd which suggest potential for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. As
previous forecaster noted, some convection also possible given steep
mid level lapse rates. However, system is progressive which should
limit excessive rainfall potential. Still, deterministic
gfs ECMWF ggem all indicate potential for 1"+ QPF and eps has
moderate probs of 1 inch rainfall. Temps may reach into the 50s in
the coastal plain with 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday and Thursday...

blustery and colder weather expected but dry conditions with nw
flow. GEFS and eps mean 850 mb temps around -8c Wed and -10c Thu so
near seasonable temps expected, perhaps a bit below normal thu.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Rest of today...

vfr. Low-end bkn-ovc CIGS will linger across the berkshires most
of the day, over N NE ma towards the CAPE this morning into
midday. Light W winds overall.

Tonight and Saturday...VFR. W-sw winds increase late tonight
and Saturday morning. May see sustained winds up to 20-25 kt and
gusts up to 30-35 kt, with best chance along the S coast, cape
cod and the islands as well as the inland higher terrain.

Kbos terminal... Low-endVFR CIGS around 4 kft agl through midday,
then improving thereafter. Monitoring W winds increasing during
the overnight period into Saturday.

Kbdl terminal... Increasing W winds during the overnight period
into Saturday. Will hold gusts as high as around 20 kts around
the morning push.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance ra, chance
sn.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Ra
likely, fzra likely, chance sn.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Winds have diminished briefly early this morning across the
waters so have ended small crafts through the morning.

Strong low level wind jets will cross the waters starting
around midday today through Saturday. With the w-sw winds in
place, will see winds increase especially late tonight and
Saturday.

Have issued small craft advisories from this afternoon through
around midnight tonight, which will transition to gale watches
for the outer waters as well as the southern bays and sounds
late tonight and Saturday. Could see gusts up to 35-40 kt in
the gale watch areas. Seas may build as high as 6-9 ft, highest
across the southern waters during Saturday.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Areas of rough seas.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.

Tuesday: strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
12 ft. Rain.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
for anz232>235-237-250.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 8 am est Saturday for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 5 pm est Saturday for anz231.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 4 pm est Saturday for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 8 am est
Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am est
Saturday for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 7 pm est Saturday for anz251.

Gale watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
anz254.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for anz254.

Gale watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for
anz255-256.

Small craft advisory until 3 am est Saturday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc sipprell evt
short term... Evt
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt
hydrology... WFO box


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi46 min 31°F 18°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi46 min 30°F 34°F1015.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi46 min W 12 G 15 30°F 1014.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi76 min W 19 G 20 30°F 1016.1 hPa (-0.4)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi46 min WNW 9.9 G 13 32°F 33°F1014.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi46 min NW 6 G 11 34°F 1015 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi91 min WNW 6 33°F 996 hPa17°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi46 min W 8 G 11 33°F 33°F1015.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi46 min WNW 11 G 15 30°F 33°F1015 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi46 min 30°F 33°F1015.1 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi46 min WNW 7 G 12 33°F 1015.1 hPa18°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi46 min NNW 7 G 12 32°F 34°F1014.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi91 min 5.1 30°F 1016 hPa19°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi33 min 42°F5 ft
44090 43 mi46 min 37°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi86 min WNW 14 G 16 28°F 36°F2 ft1015.7 hPa (+0.7)23°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi23 minW 1010.00 miFair32°F18°F56%1014.4 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi23 minWNW 710.00 miFair33°F17°F52%1014.6 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI19 mi26 minWNW 1815.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy34°F15°F48%1014.6 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi24 minW 610.00 miA Few Clouds33°F18°F54%1014.3 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi25 minWNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F19°F54%1014.9 hPa

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Last 24hrNW9NW8644NW6NW5NW6NW6NW6NW6W8W6W7W7NW4W7W73W8W9W9W11W10
1 day agoNE7N3N4Calm343CalmCalmNW3NW4344NW7CalmN3N4455CalmNW66
2 days agoSE3E5S7S8S5S3S5S4SE4E3SE3S4E5SE6SE7E4E4NE6N3NE3NE5NE6NE7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
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Fri -- 04:42 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:23 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:03 PM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.50.80.3-0.1-0.10.20.61.322.52.62.41.91.20.60.1-0.1-0.10.30.81.52.12.4

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:20 AM EST     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:35 PM EST     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:12 PM EST     2.36 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.6-2.5-1.8-1-0.20.51.21.821.50.1-1.5-2.7-2.8-2.1-1.1-0.20.61.422.32.11-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.