Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:48 AM EDT (13:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 8:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon. Patchy fog this morning. Some tstms may produce gusty winds, and heavy rainfall this morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of tropical storm cindy move across the waters from the southwest today. A cold front will sweep across the waters this afternoon. Another cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night with high pressure remaining centered south of the waters into Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241112
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
712 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Synopsis
Potential flooding and severe weather threats through the early
half of the day, especially across southeast new england, as the
remnants of tropical storm cindy clash with a sweeping cold front
that will push offshore during the later half of the day, improving
quickly and continuing overnight. Seasonably warm and less humid
conditions Sunday will be followed by cooler weather and few
diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday into
Wednesday. A warming trend begins for the latter half of the
week with a return to summer heat and humidity by Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Highlights...

- potential flooding threats across southeast new england
- 1 to 2 inch rainfall rates per hour possible
- additional threats of gusty winds and possible brief tornado
710 am update...

line of convection with heavy rain and isold thunder organizing
along nj to nyc and lifting ene. Activity is assocd with nose
of the low level jet. Extrapolation brings this area along the
south coast 12-16z with a period of heavy rainfall.

Instability is marginal but deep layer shear up to 50 kt and
0-1km helicity in nj near 400 units. Rotating storms noted in
nj where tors have been issued. Rap lifts this pocket of
enhanced low level shear northward, flirting with ri coast by
15z. It is possible it may remain over the ocean but it S a
close call and any storms near the south coast will have to be
closely monitored for rotation as environment would be conducive
to tornadoes if these higher values of helicity make it to the
coast. Waterspouts certainly a threat over the south coastal
waters.

Rapid drying moves in this afternoon with increasing sunshine
and very warm temps pushing 90 degrees in the interior but
dewpoints will be dropping.

Previous discussion...

scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming more focused along and
ahead of a sweeping well-defined cool frontal boundary. Collision
with the remnants of cindy and associated tropical plume, there is
the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding, especially across se
new england, including the possibility of gusty winds and perhaps a
brief tornado. Yet, there remains about a n-s spread of the axis of
heaviest rain that leads to a level of uncertainty. This has been a
tricky forecast. Let's start with a broad overview.

Ahead of the front, strong, convergent h925-7 moisture transport
pushes precipitable waters to 2.5 inches, all in association with
cindy remnants becoming focused along a well-defined cool frontal
boundary. Elevated instability up to 1k j kg, but all below the
freezing level of around 15 kft within an atmospheric column that is
saturated up to around h3. Deep layer forcing ahead of the mid-level
long-wave trough axis and cool front, expecting efficient warm-rain
processes with rainfall rates of 1-2" hr that usher a threat for
localized flash flooding. Secondary threats of gusty winds, but not
thinking wet microburst owing to the lack of mid-level dry air.

Also, importantly, have to watch out for the potential of a brief
tornado given strong 0-1 km shear with helicity values modeled as
high as 250 m2 s2. Low lcls with surface dewpoints well into the
70s, again along the well-defined cool frontal boundary, aside from
the weak instability, a brief tornado is possible and this was seen
yesterday across the pittsburgh pa region. Very similar setup with a
few brief tornadoes observed. Spc, in agreement, has the s-coast in
a marginal risk of severe weather with a 2-percent tornado risk
within 25 miles of a point.

So which guidance is preferred? Interrogating initialization, the
wrf and canadian model solutions are out. The ec is the southern-
most solution. And a consensus of hrrr nam GFS ukmet rap SREF focus
mainly on SE new england. But even within consensus there is some
wavering N to s, however it is focused on SE new england overall.

Looking at upstream trends and considering above discussion, will go
with definite pops over SE new england. Expecting a roughly SW to ne
band of storm total rainfall within a 6-hour timeframe, possibly
less, of 1 to 2 inches. Collaborating with wpc will highlight the
region for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. What is keeping
rainfall amounts from being higher is the progressive flow over the
region. So in thinking of isolated to scattered impacts, not wide-
spread, and with 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance at 2 to 4 inches,
will hold off on a flash flood watch. Thinking nuisance urban, poor-
drainage flooding. Will have to keep an eye on coastal communities
given coincident timing of high tide, however a tide lower than
astronomically high tides that have occurred as of late. With the
high tide, potential for drainage issues. Will issue a special
weather statement to highlight the potential flooding concerns,
as well as severe weather threats, more importantly the possibility
of a brief tornado, which was discussed above.

Behind the front, incredible drying discerned from model forecast
soundings. The airmass aloft relatively unchanged with respect to
temperature, notched downward slightly from +18c to +15c at h85, the
sun immediately coming up, we will warm up quickly into the mid to
upper 80s with some locations in the low 90s. However much less
humidity as behind the cool front dewpoints drop gradually with dry
air advection, down around the mid to upper 50s given deep layer
mixing up to h8 of a much drier airmass building in aloft. So in
summary, the later half of the day should turn out fairly nice and
pleasant.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Tonight...

overall becoming quiet. Some initial light shower activity across
n W ma and ct, up against the high terrain, as mid-level energy
advects through the continued cyclonic flow promoting localized
theta-e moisture convergence. But soon after weak height rises
overnight out ahead of a more stout mid-level feature through the
longwave trough over the great lakes region. Surface high pressure
emerging, drying out and clearing out, W winds becoming light, there
is the opportunity for radiational cooling. Indications of low to
mid 50s in the coolest of guidance at typically prone locations. Dry
air advection with dewpoints fall, not anticipating fog threats.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Highlights...

* seasonably warm less humid Sun with a spot shower possible interior
* cooler with a few showers isold t-storm possible Mon into wed
* warming trend toward end of the week with return to summer
heat humidity by fri
details...

Sunday...

fairly robust mid level shortwave moves NE from gt lakes. Brunt of
energy remains well to the north and west, but cooling aloft will
result in diurnal CU developing and can't rule out a few afternoon
showers, mainly in the interior. Instability parameters are not
favorable so no mention of thunder. 850 mb temps near 12c and deep
mixing supports highs in the low to mid 80s but cooler south coast
with SW flow. Dewpoints in the 50s will make it feel much more
comfortable.

Monday into Wednesday...

anomalous mid level trof moves eastward from the gt lakes mon
pushing into new eng late Tue and may linger into early wed. Temps
continue to cool aloft Mon which may trigger a few showers or an
isold t-storm in the interior, but best chance of showers t-storms
will likely be on Tue as the trof approaches and core of coldest air
aloft moves overhead. Timing of when the trof exits is somewhat
uncertain but GFS and ECMWF still have -21c at 500 mb 12z Wed before
temps aloft warm in the afternoon. So expect isold showers and
t-storms again on Wed with focus more across eastern half new eng.

Temps through Wed will average near or slightly below normal with
highs mainly 75-80 and lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday...

pattern change signaled as upper trof moves out with rising heights
and zonal flow across new eng. This will result in a warming trend
with temps into the 80s Thu and possibly 90+ on fri. Humidity levels
should still be comfortable Thu as dry air remains in the lower
levels, but higher dewpoints will be moving in by fri. Mainly dry
weather, but developing warm advection may bring a few showers thu
afternoon to northern areas, then chance of afternoon showers t-
storms Fri as atmosphere destabilizes.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

MVFR ifr in heavier rainfall and threat of tsra and gusty winds
along the south coast this morning, otherwise mainlyVFR
interior. In addition there is the threat of llws as winds 2
kft agl will be out of the SW around 50 kts. All of this clears
out during the later half of the day, becoming skc, with winds
shifting w. Quickly becomingVFR with CAPE and islands holding
out longest, 21z.

Tonight...

w winds becoming light. Mainly skc.VFR.

Kbos terminal... Llws threats should remain S E of the terminal.

Looking at ra +ra threats around 12z, yet the bulk of those
threats look to remain S e. Will hint for a brief 3-hour period
in the taf. Breezy SW winds with gusts up around 25 kts possible
towards noon, then winds become light and w.

Kbdl terminal... Ra +ra potential moving in around 9z. Tsra is
possible. Tempo ifr vsbys with +ra. Could see some gusty winds.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

high confidence. MainlyVFR. A few diurnally driven showers and
perhaps an isold t-storm each day.

Marine
Low clouds and fog across the SE waters especially as the remnants
of cindy advect from the SW out ahead of a sweeping cool front,
most of the activity mainly through the afternoon hours. Moderate
to heavy rain, along with the threat of thunderstorms, some of
which could be strong to severe with gale force wind gusts.

Mariners may also need to be on the lookout for possible water
spots as the environment is conducive for brief tornadic spin-ups.

Improvement towards the evening hours as the cool front sweeps
the waters. Quickly clearing out as winds shift to the W and
become light. The 6 to 8 foot wave action on all outer waters
and S inner waters should begin to diminish towards Sunday morning.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday... High confidence. Some lingering 5 ft seas possible over the
southern waters, otherwise winds will remain below sca.

Monday through Wednesday... High confidence. Quiet boating weather
with winds and seas below sca. A few hours of nearshore lower 20
knot wind gusts are possible each afternoon.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are rather high through this weekend during the
night time cycles. Boston has a 12.4 ft high tide around midnight
tonight and 12.2 ft just after midnight Sunday night.

While, offshore winds are forecast current conditions suggest a
0.4 surge which will result in minor splashover. Thus will go
ahead an issue a coastal flood statement for tonight's high tide.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for maz020-023-
024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Sunday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Sunday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Kjc sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi48 min 72°F 69°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi48 min 72°F 71°F1002.5 hPa (+0.3)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi48 min SSW 9.9 G 12 72°F 1001.1 hPa (+0.4)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi48 min SW 19 G 20 66°F 1002.7 hPa (+0.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi48 min SSW 7 G 11 66°F 64°F1002 hPa (+0.0)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi48 min WSW 4.1 G 6 71°F 1001.8 hPa (+0.3)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi63 min WSW 5.1 71°F 1002 hPa70°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi48 min SW 7 G 8 71°F 69°F1002.2 hPa (+0.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 11 72°F 72°F1001.9 hPa (+0.7)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi48 min 66°F 67°F1002.9 hPa (+0.3)
PVDR1 22 mi48 min SSW 7 G 8.9 73°F 1001.5 hPa (+0.6)71°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi48 min SW 2.9 G 6 73°F 70°F1001 hPa (+0.7)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi63 min 6 70°F 1003 hPa70°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi53 min 62°F7 ft
44090 43 mi44 min 60°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi58 min 66°F2 ft1002.8 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi55 minSW 12 G 183.00 miRain Fog/Mist71°F70°F96%1002.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi55 minSSW 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F69°F100%1002.2 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi56 minSSW 66.00 miLight Rain73°F68°F84%1002.2 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi57 minWSW 83.00 miRain Fog/Mist73°F71°F94%1002.1 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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SW9W5W3W4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmNW6NW3NW65NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
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Sat -- 04:48 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:26 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:38 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.70.70-0.3-0.4-0.10.51.52.63.33.22.51.60.6-0.1-0.4-0.400.71.72.93.73.9

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     2.58 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:21 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:46 AM EDT     -2.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:19 PM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.8-2-100.91.72.32.62.10.7-1.2-2.5-2.8-2.3-1.4-0.50.31.11.72.120.9-0.8-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.